End of the Beginning

The first four primaries are rounds of single malt scotch sipped slowly and savored.  Unfortunately for Bernie, the 4th round cost him 1.6 million but was watered down.  Hillary got the delegate buzz.

The twelve state blend coming on Tuesday figures to be more of the same.  Hillary sitting down with a bottle of Johnnie Walker Black, while the Senator gulps a shot of White Label.  She will have the high, he will have the hangover.  With proportional allocation throughout the remainder of the race, he may never recover.

The bar brawl on the Republican side is much the same.  The happy hour food fight may last through the winner take all in Florida on March 15, but Trump will be the last one standing.

Taking the Blog on the Road

This year Cuba has played a role in the primary season.  Two Cuban Americans have made it to the final four in the GOP March Madness (Carson is just on a book tour).  Obama is planning a visit which will surely be condemned by the GOP candidates.   Peeling back the trade embargo is a campaign issue.

So I requested a specific license to cover the election from a Cuban perspective.  Instead I received a slightly vague response that my work falls under the general journalism license.  Good enough!  From April 15-May 10 I will be blogging from Cuba.  Because of iffy WIFI  and my poor typing on my iPhone, blogs will be limited.  But I will supplement on my return.  In addition I will spend a few days in Mexico City so I can ask about Trump and his wall.

I hope you all enjoy the change of pace.

It Takes A Village

The President has a problem.  His appointee for the Supreme Court may not even get a hearing.  The top candidates are unlikely to accept the role of sacrificial lamb.  A second tier candidate places less pressure on the GOP.

Bernie and Hillary, or at least Hillary, must agree to renominate Obama's choice.  By so doing, the candidate pool is improved, the issue of the Supreme Court becomes even more concrete, and the gender and/or ethnicity of the nominee can be part of the identity politics of the election.

In 2016 it takes a village to nominate a Supreme Court Justice.

Who Won the Houston GOP Debate?

In a normal year Kasich won hands down.  His calm demeanor, sensible proposals and exposition of a resume that is on point for present problems would carry the day.  But this is not that year, and last night was not that day.

Carson, would be the clear loser, but given his lack of relevance and limited air time you would have to give him an incomplete.  His desperate plea for air time, "Someone please attack me," was the comic relief in a nasty brawl.  I doubt I am the only one who records the debate so I can fast forward through Dr. Ben.

The other loser was Cruz--the winners Rubio and Trump.  Marco and Ted spent most of the evening attacking The Donald.  Marco had the better lines and stuck the knife in with a smile.  Cruz was a cross between a stern high school principal and the smarmy adult in "Beach Blanket Bingo."

Marco exposed Trump for a lack of a replacement for Obamacare, and for hiring foreign workers rather than Americans.  But Trump had a few counter attacks and blustered through.  Since he was entitled to respond to each attack he dominated the air time.

Plus Trump had a big ace in the hole--Chris Christie.  Trump knows that for every person watching the debate, 20 form an opinion through sound bites.  Trump used the Christie endorsement to cover the post debate news cycle.

Post Racial Politics

For an all too brief moment, optimists woke up on November 5, 2008 to a new era of post racial politics.  At the same time, key Republicans were secretly planing the annihilation of the Obama presidency.   Racism went underground, but the stench seeped up from the sewers.

In a shaded corner of the Democratic Party, post racial politics is sprouting.  A prior post explained the power of social networks to grow a Bernie majority amongst the young into a super majority.  Although trolls poxed with racism and sexism lurk on the internet,  social networks broadcast across race and gender.  Bernie's internet linked younger supporters do not respond to race or gender identity politics.

Although, I support Hillary,  a hint of post racial politics glimmers in Senator Sanders' generational appeal.

Rubio Must Drop Out

The GOP elite is confused.   First they underestimated Trump, now they are swooning over a pretty face and a toothy smile.  Conventional wisdom is that the only chance to take down The Donald is a mano a mano between him and Marco.

That will not work.  When there are only two candidates one will win the nomination.  Looking at the polls and Trump's broad support,  Marco loses in a two man race.  Rubio has the cash and endorsements, but so far, more spin than voters.  The best chance to derail Trump is a 3 candidate race that leads to a brokered convention.

Until May 15 delegates are awarded proportionally, with a big advantage to a candidate winning 50% or more in a state or congressional district.  So the mainstream candidate needs Cruz to keep Trump under 50%.   Than there is the issue of home, sweet home. or in the case of Rubio home, sour home.

Cruz is leading in his home state of Texas.  With many early votes already  in the bank, and a massive ground game, he should hold on.  Mario is way behind in Florida, a winner take all state.  Kasich dropping out would not be enough for Rubio.  If Mario loses Florida his campaign flounders.

In contrast, Kasich is close in Ohio.  If Marco dropped out and endorsed Kasich he would win easily and have a leg up in the Midwest.  The strategy is for Cruz and Kasich to both attack Trump and ignore each other.  Both would run as regional candidates, concentrating resources in a handful of favorable states.  Cruz may be too damaged for this to work, but it may be the only way to play One No Trump.

Bush Whacked

The "Shock and Awe" campaign is now the aww, shucks ex-campaign.  The GOP has turned to the dark side.  The foreign policy choice is between boots on the ground,  unfettered carpet bombing and torture.   Mexico is to build a wall, Muslims are to be excluded, mosques are to be closed.  The right to choose will be between a hand gun and a semi-automatic.  Merging old with new, the wealthiest will have tax reductions.

The Grand Old Party is playing a tune no one should dance to.

The Seven Year Itch

Seven years of Bush drove record turnout in the 2008 Democratic primaries.  Seven years of President Obama is doing the same thing for Republican primaries in 2016.  Perhaps only The Donald can bridge the enthusiasm gap for Democrats.

The GOP Senate leadership is doing what it can to help.  If the Supreme Court vacancy remains, a broad swath of progressives will flock to the polls.  A couple of the most qualified candidates for the court are Hispanic.  If the GOP refuses to consider a Hispanic nominee, it might galvanize the Latino community.

But no one can build a wall between Latinos and the GOP like Trump.  Make no mistake, Republicans will pay for that wall.   Trump's harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric would drive Hispanic turnout and registration, with dramatic down ballot impact.

With Trump heading the ticket the shocker will be greater African American turnout than during the Obama victories.  The concept of being "disrespected" is deeply embedded in the community.  The Trump lead birther movement, and intemperate tweets, disrespected the first Black president.  Blacks will respond with a vengeance.

80,000

The numbers prove Senator Sanders will not be the next president.  The key numbers are not 53 to 47, the final returns in Nevada.  Nor is it the small number of additional delegates earned by Hillary.

Nor is it impossible for Bernie to be the nominee.  Certainly, with South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states coming up Hillary is the favorite but Bernie could still win.  The key numbers are 120,000 the number of Nevada caucus goers in 2008, as compared to 80,000, the number this year.

The single state primaries are about to yield to multi-state primaries.  As a far left candidate, single state primaries gave Bernie his best chance to prove he could fuel his revolution by expanding the electorate.  Compared to 2008, the number of Democratic participants has declined in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.  Bernie has ceded the middle without expanding the base.  He would lose in November.

Predicting Nevada

Hillary has a blue chip organization, a paper thin lead in the polls and support from most unions other than the uncommitted culinary workers.  Hillary is the known quantity, virtually running as the incumbent.

Late deciders generally break for the challenger.  If this were a primary I would predict a 53-47 win for Sanders.  But in a caucus many undecided decide not to caucus.  Hoping to be wrong, I predict Bernie will have a 51-49 victory, with a slightly greater delegate lead because of strength in rural counties.

A Tale of Two Parties

The Grand Old Party has a field of children throwing spitballs at their debates.  Shouts of liar substitute for substance.   Cruz claims Mario was for immigrants before he was against them.  Chest pounding replaces foreign policy.  Cruz wants indiscriminate carpet bombing, Rubio wants boots on the ground, and Trump is for torture.  Carson babbles.

In contrast, Sanders and Hillary compare proposals on income equality, healthcare,  prison reform, and  campaign funding.   Bernie, who has only recently joined the party, considers attacks on his fealty to President Obama a low blow.  That was a love tap compared to the kicking and hair pulling amongst the disloyal opposition.

Cruz Loses 4 to 4

Nothing quite matches the titillating taste of irony.  Cruz is adamant in opposing Obama's right to appoint a replacement for Justice Scalia.  If he is successful in blocking an appointment, the court will operate with four liberal and four conservative justices.

A case has been filed to disqualify Cruz from running for president on the ground that he is not,  "A Natural Born Citizen."  Imagine if the case clears procedural hurdles such as standing, and an appellate court disqualifies Cruz.  The case would proceed on an expedited basis to the Supreme Court.

Liberal justices who generally take a more expansive view of the Constitution would almost certainly side with Cruz.  Strict constructionists on the other hand are the most likely to find that a president must be born in America.  The Supreme Court does not like to tread in the political arena.  A 4 to 4 decision has the benefit of not setting a precedent, but merely leaving the lower court decision in place.

For want of a 5th liberal justice, Cruz would lose.

Betraying Scalia

Before even knowing where Justice Scalia would be interred, Republicans spat on his intellectual grave.  Scalia shaped GOP judicial philosophy.  The Constitution must be read literally.  If interpretation is required,  it should be based on the founder's intent.

No clause in the Constitution restricts the right of judicial appointment during the President's last year in office.  The Senate has the right to advise and consent, not to screw you.  Justice Scalia would understand the politics, but abhor the attack on the document he held sacred.  Unlike Mitch McConnell, and the gang of six, Scalia was intellectually honest.

For the press, the semblance of evenhandedness, can hide the truth.  Too long we have suffered the homily that the President and the GOP are both responsible for partisan gridlock.  Chatting up Republicans in Congress would have no impact.   Obama is trying to govern, not get a date.

Sander's Sandbox

Bernie capturing nearly 85% of the under 25 vote is historic.  Closely correlated is his success with first time voters.  His policies have obvious appeal to young voters who are usually more idealistic.   Oddly, the iconoclastic Senator, may also benefit from herd mentality.  Millennials intimate connection through social networks may turn majorities into super majorities.  But while politically oriented networks may concentrate the vote, the key question is whether they expand the vote.

Bernie's electability argument hinges on the answer.  So far the answer is no.  Eschewing voters in the center Bernie argues that he can bring millions of new voters into the system, ensuring his election and fueling his political revolution.

Compared to the last contested Democratic primaries in 2008, in 2016 there are less voters, and less first time voters.  Voters age 18-24 have increased marginally from 11 to 12 per cent of the electorate.  As a general election candidate Bernie is not bringing in enough new voters to offset those he is losing.  Ironically, notwithstanding his opposition to SuperPacs, GOP SuperPacs are spending millions in support of Bernie.

2020

John and Sally,  23 year old McDonald's workers are talking during  their break.  "When we voted for Bernie I thought I would be able to go to college.  I never expected the Trump/Cruz ticket to carry 40 states.  Sally replies, "I thought if I had to take a fast food job I would get 15 dollars an hour.  Now there is no minimum wage."  "Yea, and what about Julia,  she is having a child after being raped, and has no paid leave and no insurance," says John.  When the Supreme Court allowed banning of abortions she was trapped."

The PBS debate, won handily by Hillary,  shows why Bernie would suffer a crushing defeat.  He became visibly cranky after softball attacks by Hillary.  If he thinks he suffered a low blow, he is not ready for the constant right wing kidney punches by Karl Rove and others.  When Hillary claimed his policies would be a 40% expansion of the federal government, he did not deny it.  Not a problem in the Democratic primaries, but enough to ensure his defeat in the general election.

Voting against both wars in Iraq, one right vote and one wrong vote, is not enough to qualify him as Commander in Chief.   His one note economic message stands in stark contrast to her 8 octave aria.

Chill, Bill

Bill is frustrated.  He knows as a politician, and as a spouse, that Hillary is best prepared to win in November, and govern in January.  A message candidate has caught fire and he wants to stomp him out.

Women gender equality pioneers and role models including Gloria Allred, Madeline Albright, a bevy of female senators, and yes, Hillary, are also frustrated.  Their success has freed women millennials to ignore gender and past contributions to the cause.

But rather than risky attempts to put out the fire, Bill and the campaign must patch and reinforce the Southern and Midwestern firewall.   This is why they built it.  Hillary will need Bernie and his supporters in the fall.  Now is not the time to burn bridges.

Giving Rubio the Boot

Much has been made of Rubio's Florsheims,  but the worrisome boots are on the ground.   Rubio is adamant about sending troops to the Middle East.  The self proclaimed candidate of the future, is poised to repeat the errors of the past.

Only in this 2016 alternate universe, with a hyper nationalist egotist and an ultra conservative conniver atop the leader board, could Marco be the great Latino hope of the establishment.  He won as the Tea Party candidate in Florida.  

Hopefully after being stomped by Christie in the ABC Debate, he will soon do the Walker walk, existing stage right.

The Case for Kasich Redux

Back in September I predicted that battle for GOP establishment support would narrow to Kasich and Rubio, with Kasich prevailing with superior political instincts and acumen.  http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-case-for-kasich.html

For some time it  I was seemingly whistling into the wind, a wind that became a gale force after Iowa.  Now that the stepford  candidate stood exposed on the ABC debate stage, the wind is at my back.

Tuesday could see a second place finish by the Ohio governor.

The Penny Pinching Billionaire

In August I pointed to Trump's cheapness as a barrier to his presidential ambitions.  More recently, we witnessed and discussed the role an under financed ground game played in his loss in Iowa.  The esteemed blogger for PoliticalWire, has reached the same conclusion.

Trump Risks Little of His Own Money

February 6, 2016By Taegan Goddard6 Comments

Donald Trump “once boasted that he could someday be the only person to turn a profit running for president. He may be closer than anyone realizes,” the New York Times reports.

“What remains is a quintessentially Trumpian endeavor that blurs the line between campaigning and brand-building and complicates Mr. Trump’s claims that he is funding his own White House campaign. About three-quarters of Mr. Trump’s total campaign spending has either gone to reimburse his own businesses or has been covered by funds from grass-roots donors… Virtually all of the money Mr. Trump himself has put into the campaign was lent, rather than donated outright, meaning that he could potentially sell enough hats and T-shirts to pay himself back down the road.”

Who Won the 5th Debate?

If you read the online polls, it was Sander's sand box.  Those polls are meaningful, but do not answer the top line question.  The polls mean that Bernie is popular with the young, who are heavier internet users, and may also reflect an enthusiasm gap.

Thursday Bernie preached to the choir, while Hillary spoke to the world.  Fire and brimstone dominated the 1st third of the debate.  He railed against the sins of Wall Street and the outsize hubris of the big banks.  Campaign money is the root of all evil, he bellowed.  The chorus said verily it is so, and pointed at Hillary for taking the tainted money.

The last 2/3s of the debate were hers.  With the first question on foreign policy she visibly relaxed and took control.  She was enjoying herself.  Bernie's economic message is powerful and concise, but her breath and depth of knowledge is dazzling.

Cut Hillary Some Slack on Iraq

For over 13 years Hillary has been pilloried for her authorization vote.   Viewed in context that long ago vote, has no bearing on her qualifications as Commander in Chief.

With such stalwarts as Collin Powell selling the certainty of Iraqi weapons of mass destruction, everyone, including Bernie, was drinking the kool-aid.  Sanders voted no anyway, because he believed such weapons posed no imminent threat to America.

Bush/Cheney either misread intelligence reports, or knowingly mislead this nation.  Nothing establishes that Hillary would make the same error.

Another reason Hillary joined John Kerry, and such noted liberals as Tom Harkin, in supporting the resolution is the benefit of the doubt generally afforded the Commander in Chief.   The speech she delivered before casting her vote reflects that deference and the belief that Bush would honor his promise to use the authorization to leverage a diplomatic resolution through the United Nations.

If we were to attack Iraq now, alone or with few allies, it would set a precedent that could come back to haunt us.
...this course is fraught with danger.
...a unilateral attack...on the present facts is not a good option.
Because bipartisan support for this resolution makes success in the United Nations more likely, and therefore, war less likely, and because a good faith effort by the United States, even if it fails, will bring more allies and legitimacy to our cause, I have concluded, after careful and serious consideration, that a vote for the resolution best serves the security of our nation.
My vote is not, however, a vote for any new doctrine of preemption, or for unilateralism, or for the arrogance of American power or purpose -- all of which carry grave dangers for our nation, for the rule of international law and for the peace and security of people throughout the world. ...
So it is with conviction that I support this resolution as being in the best interests of our nation. A vote for it is not a vote to rush to war; it is a vote that puts awesome responsibility in the hands of our President and we say to him - use these powers wisely and as a last resort.

Excerpts courtesy of Daily Kos.

Bush went on to use the authorization to launch an ill fated war, and to so bungle the post war as to destabilize the region.  The blood is on the hands of Bush/Chaney, not the Democratic Senators who supported the president.

The Lessons of Iowa

But for Trump's braggadocio, and a few polls, the story of Iowa would have been Trump's remarkable second place finish.  A seasoned candidate and staff would have spun this like a dreidel.  Trump trades in his wife every ten years for a newer model,  seldom attends church, and has only recently reversed his pro-choice position.  Trump believes Corinthians was the leather in the ill fated Chrysler Cordoba.  The GOP Iowa caucus electorate is 60% evangelicals.

Elbow grease beat chest thumping.  Iowa caucus goers expect to be wooed.  Trump never gave them a first date.  Cruz visited all 99 counties, brought in field staff and more than 12,000 volunteers.  Trump's giant rallies are too public for the love affair Iowans demand.  The multi-state primaries to come are better suited to Trump's tarmac campaign.  Wholesale will soon replace retail politics.

Iowa's caveat for Trump is what we pointed out in early August, http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/08/trumps-money-problem.html.  Trump is a penny pincher living in a gold plated palace.  Free media has hidden, and perhaps excused, his limited air game.  But only his cheapness explains the lack of ground game.  Against all odds, Trump might have won Iowa with a high end, well financed, field staff training and deploying an army of volunteers.  Trump deployed a few rent a cops against the Cruz militia.

Going forward the question is whether his big mouth, and fat ego will ever be matched by a large wallet.

4 Reasons that the Election Matters

Here are the ages of the 4 oldest Supreme Court Justices:

• Ruth Bader Ginsburg – 83
• Antonin Scalia – 80
• Anthony Kennedy – 80
• Stephen Breyer – 78