Post Mortem

 Kamala had an amazing take off from a short run way.  I will not criticize her campaign.  She moved to the center hoping to pickup Haley republicans and many independents.  She emphasized reproductive rights, a winning issue in 2022.  The threat to Democracy was key, and surprisingly was the number one issue in exit polls.  She won the money race, established a great ground game, and nimbly exploited errors by the opposition.  Her team recognized this was a change election, using slogans such as, "Not going back," "New way forward", and  "Turn the page".

Unfortunately, she was tied to the immensely successful, and decidedly unpopular, Biden administration. Three quarters of voters rated Trump most likely to bring needed change.   We are not alone.  Post pandemic rage has riled governing parties in all western democracies.

As children we were told that sticks and stones can break our bones, but words can never hurt us.  As adults we have learned that is untrue.  Trump's "they, them" ads appealed to more than anti-trans bigotry.  The message was that the left cares more about pronouns than the real problems of the working class.  It makes democrats seem out of touch.

When I call to make an appointment with a lawyer I do not need to know the preferred pronoun of the secretary or receptionist.  Looking at a play bill I want to know about the past performances of an actor on the big screen, on the increasingly larger, small screen, and on the stage.  Preferred pronoun is of no importance.  

LatinX is another problem.  Many latinos hate the term that white liberals have imposed on them.

In retrospect the only chance for Democrats was Biden announcing early that he was not seeking a second term.  Although angering black women, the heart and soul of the party, primaries might have produced a candidate other than Kamala.  If it was Josh Shapiro, we might have won.  He is decidedly popular in the key, keystone state.  His message is tailored to working class voters and he is male.  Shamefully many men and, quite a few women, are unwilling to vote for a woman for president.

So Wrong

 The champagne is back in the basement.  I will need the hard stuff over the next 4 years.  I could not have been more wrong.  Hard to believe the most racist candidate since George Wallace got a huge majority of Latino men, and a healthy chunk of black men.  The Bro strategy worked.  He won males 18-29 bt 11 points compared to Biden winning the group by 15.  He muddied the water enough on abortion that it was a less potent issue than expected.  Sisterhood did not prevail.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, this time he had a professional team that hit issues that worked.  The anti-trans ads were shamefully potent.

Collective amnesia will take a while to explain.  People rate the chaotic Trump presidency at 48, and the successful Biden term at 41.

In retrospect Kamala needed to distance herself from Biden, a touchy task.  I still wonder why they never ran ads that Trump was held liable by a jury for sexual assault.  The appeal to suburban women failed.  Trump got marginally more Democratic voters than Kamala's share of Republicans.  She only won independents by 5%.  But maybe nothing mattered because American is unwilling to elect a Black woman.

If there are midterms, perhaps we can extract our revenge after people are reminded of how Trump governs.

For now I will be watching a lot of football.

Final Prediction

 Kamala Harris wins 51% to 47%, with 292 or more electoral votes.   All three forecast models, 538, Economist and Nate Silver, show a 50/50 election.  That does not belie my prediction.  Two weeks ago all three gave Trump a small edge.  Trend lines matter. 

Another poll is seminal.  The well respected Selzer poll shows Harris up 3 points in Iowa.  That is an outlier, and inconsistent with each campaign's internal polling, or the candidates would be in the state. But it shows a 7 point move since September in the same poll.  Trend lines matter. Iowa bodes well for blue wall states.

Early voting has an anomaly.  Polling cross tabs, which admittedly have a large margin of error, all show Kamala ahead with early voters.  But unlike 2020, virtually as many Republicans as Democrats have early voted.  Reconciliation means that either a good number of Republicans are voting for Kamala, and/or she is killing it with independents.

Typically women out vote men 52/48.  Early voting is running 53/44, with larger margins in the seven battleground states except for Nevada and Arizona.  Harris has a substantial polling lead with women, as Trump does with men.  Same day voting may revert to the mean, but if we end up with anything like 54/46, Harris will prevail.

On the less quantitative front, Trump's closing message is muddled with an island of garbage and a firing squad for Liz Cheney.  Trump has ceded middle ground and Harris has jumped in calling for common sense solutions and an end to divisive politics.

Finally, Republicans have always accused Democrats of throwing money at problems.  That is just what Trump has done with Musk throwing millions at an untested ground game.  Criticism is anecdotal, but wide spread.

In contrast, Harris has a wide net of field offices throughout the battle ground states.  Turn out and micro targeting are run by two  of the best, David Plouffe and Jen O'Malley Dillion.  Ground game should give Harris a plus one throughout the magnificent seven states.

Be still thy heart, and chill the champagne.

Battle of the Sexes

 Numbers don't lie, but their truth may be hidden.  Despite Trump's cat calls, in 2024 Republicans have doggedly pushed early voting.  The result has scared Democrats.  The Republican share of the 38 million votes cast to date is up, particularly in the sun belt.

Unnoticed is a brilliant ray of sunshine--roughly 10 per cent more women have early voted.  This year the gender gap is a chasm.  Trump's campaign is all wrestle mania and penis size, with a heavy sprinkling of anti-trans ads.  Kamala is pushing reproductive rights.

In an election between sisterhood and the bro vote, the early returns are promising.

Old Age

Donald Trump is now the oldest person ever nominated by a major party to be president. Although he may be as boisterous as he was in 2016 and 2020, can we admit that he is far less coherent, or is Hannibal Lecter the number one issue facing the republic? 

Ping

 I have a new business. Shooting small rubber bands at my computer screen. During the first quarter, I lost 2 dollars (the cost of the rubber bands). I expect to reach the break even point in the second quarter, since the rubber bands are reusable. Trump's media company lost 58 million over the last 4 quarters and is valued at 8 billion. Based on that valuation, I conservatively estimate the value of "Ping" at 10 billion.

Time to Label "No Labels"

 No Labels is a MAGA Wolf clothed in a sheepish cloak of seeming non-partisan moderation.  The gentle Baa hides a malicious bite.

No Labels is autocratic.  The nominees will not be chosen by primary voters.  A backroom deal will be cut.  Break out the cigars.

No labels is an opaque secret society.  The Democratic and Republican parties have their faults, but at least they are required to disclose their donors.  No Labels keeps their donors, be they White Nationalists or Extreme MAGA, hidden from view.  No Labels is a political predator, preying with the intoxicating pitch of unity. Voters should soberly know who is in their bed.

"My, what big teeth you have," says the voter.  "Don't be afraid says No Labels,"  we will withdraw if we will be a spoiler."  The Big Bad No Labels is lying.  Once their ticket is on the ballot, there it will stay. That is the law.

No Labels is Trump's best chance to claw his way back to power.  Do not be fooled. 

Donations

 As the #RealDonaldTrump I hate to pay for sex, but love when my donors do me the pleasure. Thank you for the 155,000 for #Melania. By the way, the place settings were nice, although I never know which fork for my Chicken McNuggets.

Slander Per Se

Litigation is not easy  Usually the plaintiff has to work hard to score an award.  She must prove she was harmed, and prove how much she was damaged.  Often to win, or to make it a score plus a foul shot, she must prove intent.

Slander per se is the easy slam dunk.  If someone accuses you of something heinous, such as the commission of a crime, damages need not be proven and malicious intent is assumed.  

At his rally in Pennsylvania, without any evidence, Donald Trump accused Senate candidate John Fetterman of illegal drug use.

Since malicious intent is assumed, Trump can not make his usual claim that he was just joking.  Time to hold him accountable.  Fetterman must sue.

Trump Detests Law Enforcement

 Mafia movies seduce us into identifying with, and even rooting for, murderers and thieves.  But when we leave the flickering lights, most of us reacquire our moral compass.  Not so for our former president who wants to be Don Trumpleone.

Pardons tell the tale.  In 2017, in Nisour Square, five Blackwater mercenaries killed 17 innocent Iraqis, and injured 20 more, including women and children.   The wanton moral depravity was a diplomatic disaster.  One of the contractors, Jeremy Ridgeway, stepped up,  He testified for the prosecution, exhibited remorse and plead guilty to manslaughter.  The other four were unrepentant. Trump pardoned the blood thirsty four, and left Jeremy Ridgeway to serve out his term.

In many major cases informants are a godsend.  For criminals, and Trump, informants are rats.  Trump used that very term for his former attorney, Michael Cohen.  In contrast he extolled, and pardoned, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort who refused to cooperate with law enforcement.

Tragically, a capital police officer was killed in the January 6 riot.  At the capitol, the flag flew at half mast.  At the White House the flag was atop the poll, loud and proud.  For Donald Trump, blue lives do not matter.

Bitter About Twitter

 Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Banning Trump from Twitter, and other platforms, does not violate the first amendment above.  Only the government is precluded from limiting speech.  But even the government may act to prevent a clear and present danger.

To explain the rule the most common example is that a person does not have the right to yell fire in a crowded theater.  Meanwhile, my spin is that if someone does yell fire, the theater has the right to refuse to sell him a ticket to the next show.  That is what Twitter has done in accordance with its guidelines.

We pay a high price for the right to post pictures of our cats on Facebook or to rant on Twitter. Algorithms silo us into news bins that reinforce our beliefs rather than broaden our knowledge.  Facts are segregated.   No real alternative exists to the major platforms, leaving public discourse to the whims of large corporations.

Flaws aside, social media cannot be faulted for silencing the President.

The Vindication of Hillary

 Hillary faced hurricane level headwinds.  She was bashed by her gender, decades of right wing media and most importantly, the meaningless email scandal that was reinvigorated in the closing weeks of her  campaign.  Trump was given unlimited free media.  She lost, but by the narrowest of margins.  

The autopsy of her campaign was bloody, brutal, and ultimately, wrong.  She nailed Trump in all three debates and made historic inroads into the hispanic electorate.  She won the popular vote.  Her sins were underperforming many state polls, and a travel schedule that slighted parts of the Midwest.

Biden look up residence in the Midwestern battleground states.  He stayed on a message made powerful by the mounting deaths caused by Trump's incompetent response to the pandemic.  Although he probably will eke out the narrowest of victories, his underperformance of the polls is historic.  The ballot excess over Clinton in the MidWest, although determinative, is de minimis. 

With the hindsight of 2020, we can now reevaluate 2016.  Trump is a far more formidable candidate than we knew.  He is able to tap into an unimaginably large reservoir of white non-college educated grievance.  His death defying rallies work. He is shameless, which allows him to lie and cheat in electoral politics as he did in business.  He befuddles pollsters.

Tragic Lane Change Kills Haley's Political Career

 The road to the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is congested.  Ted Cruz is in the right hand lane espousing balanced budgets and conservative values.  He is joined by Tom Cotton, who also straddles the Trump lane.  Marco Rubio keeps on making weird hand signals, so his lane is uncertain, but definitely small.   The Trump lane is clogged with Pence, Don Jr., Mike Pompeo, a bit of Cotton and a few other stragglers.

Before recklessly veering into the Trump pileup, Nikki Halley had a clear path.   She could run as the compassionate conservative following in the wake of George W. Bush, with the added benefits of an immigrant background, pigmentation and removal of the Confederate Flag from the South Carolina state house grounds.  

Merging with Trump was political malpractice.  If Republicans remain the party of Trump, she will never be Trumpy enough, compared to Pence and Trump's eldest son.  But if Trump floundered she was positioned to be the shiny, unsullied object of political affection.   

By The Numbers

The immortal Watergate phrase, "Follow the money," applies equally well to presidential campaigns.  Campaigns stop spending in a state because it is either in the bag, or out of reach.  In 2016 Trump won 306 electoral college votes, including claiming Michigan's 16 votes by  a mere 10,000 ballots.

On July 2, after consistently bad poll numbers, the Trump campaign went dark in Michigan.  Without Michigan Trump is down to 290, if he carried all the states that supported him in 2016.   That is just 20 electors more than he needs to be reelected.

Trump is besieged on many fronts.  If he lost Florida's 29 electors votes, Biden is our next president.  Trailing there, he has allocated 39 million of his latest 126 million ad buy to his new home state.  The next largest expenditure, nearly 19 million, is in the lately bright red state of Ohio.  Trump is on defense.

Biden was born in Pennsylvania and his political career has been in the neighboring state of Delaware.  Biden is a strong favorite to pick up Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.  That puts him only 2 electors away from victory.   Any state will do.  Currently Biden is ahead in the former Trump states of Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.  Georgia and Texas are a toss up.

To make up for likely losses, Trump needs to win someplace that voted for Clinton.  His campaign has targeted New Hampshire's 4 and Minnesota's 10 electoral votes.  He trails by double digits in both.  His best chance for an electoral surprise is Nevada's 6 votes.  Nevada would not be enough.

Money talks.

Lazy Daze

These lazy, particularly crazy, days of summer are the product of the lazy daze of this administration.  Beginning with the winter of our discontent, this president has never expended the effort necessary to govern.

Joe Biden has a transition team hard at work.   The ship of state needs a large crew ready to go at embarkation.  After aborting a transition team under Chis Christy, Trump won the election without anyone to steer the ship.  His cadre was shocked to discover 6000 positions subject to presidential appointment.  He never made the effort to staff the government.

Obama appointees were left in position, vetting was slip shod leading to frequent embarrassments.  To this very summer day, scores of positions are either vacant or filled on a temporary basis.  Under, and poorly, staffed the government has flailed.

The books by Mary Trump and John Bolton, paint a shallow portrait.  Trump has never done an honest days work.  His younger sister did his college homework, his friend took his SAT, and daddy's money bailed him out of personal and business failures.  He neither reads his daily security reports nor absorbs his oral briefings.

He governs by tweets, executive proclamations and talking points.  He never does the hard work of developing policy and a course of action.  He golfed while the nation became engulfed in a pandemic.    He was glued to Fox News, as our bonds with our allies weakened, and our rivals shed our constraints.

To this day Trump refuses to do his homework before engaging with foreign leaders.  Better informed, our adversaries have the advantage.  But his greatest failing has been the Coronavirus.

As the nation begged for leadership, he left the hard work to the governors, never formulating a national policy.  As foreign  leaders imposed their will, bringing the virus to heel, we have allowed it to fester and proliferate.

Most recently Trump has called for schools to reopen.  He has reduced it to a slogan, rather than a plan.  To win reelection, he needs the economy to improve. School is the day care that allows return to full employment.  But Trump has refused to do the hard work of outlining and funding the steps for a safe reopening.

We need a hard working Joe.

Money Can't Buy Me Love

Madison Avenue elites had stunning visuals, catchy slogans, and most importantly, an unlimited budget.  But they could not sell New Coke.

Combined, the RNC, PACs and the Trump campaign have spent 552 million dollars, exceeding Biden expenditures by over 200 million.  Trump trails by double digits in most polls.

To many he may have seemed effervescent at first, but none can deny the bad after taste.

See No Evil, Hear No Evil

Despite briefing papers, Trump claims he did not see that Russians were placing a bounty on American troops.   Perhaps the only bounty he has seen are the rolls he threw to hurricane victims in Puerto Rico.   Bolton correctly alerts that Putin plays Trump like a fiddle.  But must he be so out of tune.

Trump retweeted a man in a golf cart shouting, "White Power."  He claims he did not hear it.  Maybe golf carts are for him cute and cuddly, like cats are for others.   More likely, with dismal poll numbers, he has decided that dog whistles are not enough, he needs a bull horn, lest anyone doubt his racist bona fides.

Trump cannot complete the famous phrase.  He speaks evil with outlandish consistency.  President Obama committed treason.  Joe Biden is corrupt.  His former cabinet members are wacky, crazy, traitors.

Enough is enough.  November third cannot come too soon.

Central Casting

Trump has taken to calling himself a wartime president.  The only wars he has waged are on science and his own government.  In crisis his inadequacies are magnified by the weakness of his cast.  It is like a commercial break at the Oscars, when stand-ins (or rather sit-ins), take the seats of attendees.  But in this administration, when the lights come back on, the substitutes are still in place.

Obama prepared the Trump administration for a respiratory pandemic eerily similar to COVID-19. The exercise paired 30 top Trump appointees, with their Obama counterparts, as they worked through the pandemic response.  Two thirds of those Trump appointees are gone.  Across the government Senate confirmed expertise, and next tier experienced bureaucrats, have been replaced with lackeys or not replaced at all.

For instance, the top level of Homeland Security, so crucial in a crisis looks like this:

Secretary (acting), Chad F. Wolf | Secretary's Corner

• Deputy Secretary (vacant), Ken Cuccinelli, Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Deputy Secretary
• Chief of Staff (acting), John Gountanis
• Executive Secretary (acting), Juliana Blackwell
• General Counsel (acting), Chad Mizelle
• Military Advisor, Rear Admiral Brendan C. McPherson

Trump has no government experience.  He has crafted an administration in his own image.  His choices come from central casting, and none are long lasting.

Profiles in Cowardice

The New Testament Sentiment, "Forgive them, they know not what they do," does not apply to Republican legislators.  Not even Christian charity permits deriding GOP Senators and Congressman as merely ignorant. With few exceptions, attaining legislative office requires above average intelligence.

No, the GOP is knowingly counting down the end of the American Century.  Starting with the Marshal Plan and continuing with NATO, America has preached from the pulpit with its economic, moral and military superiority.  Congregants sang our hymn.  Allies enjoyed stability, and America prospered.

Trump, in ways both large and small, with GOP acquiescence, has emptied the pews.   On the micro level, Trump's disdain has crippled the State Department.  The ranks have not been decimated, for that is a mere drop of 10%.  Rather nearly 50% of the top two tiers of department professionals have departed.  Institutional knowledge is gone, phones go unanswered.  Opportunities are lost, international respect vanishes.  As in a horse, these micro fractures may go undiagnosed, but eventually lead to unsoundness and even the loss of life.

On the macro scale, an unfettered Trump, is shunning the support of our allies, and instead courting authoritarian regimes.  Many believe the reason is Trump's authoritarian tendencies.  That may have an influence, but the full truth is more dire.  Authoritarians can, by fiat, satisfy Trump's greed, liberal democracies have procedural guard rails.  Saudi Arabia has loaned hundreds of millions to Trump and  to the Kushners.  China has awarded Ivanka valuable trademarks.  Perhaps to launder money, Russian oligarchs have been prime purchasers of Trump properties.

Where greed leaves off, ignorance takes the floor.  Tump is a one man Know Nothing Party, ignoring briefings and rational analysis in favor of impulse.

Republican officeholders know Trump's failings, but would rather creep to reelection than stand tall.

The Wrong Path

Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez poked the conservative bear when she proclaimed that Donald Trump is taking us down the path to fascism.  The bear roared and rumbled before returning to its dumpster dive.

Most assuredly America is far, far from fascism.   But we are closer than we have ever been.  Here are the degrees of proximity.

Fascism and Trumpism are populist movements fueled by fear and hatred of "the other."  For fascism it was the Jews, for Trumpism it is brown immigrants, although hate crimes against minorities, including Jews, is on the rise.  Trumpism and fascism attack the basic structure of civil society and government in order to centralize power in the hands of the leader.  As part of that, both Fascism and Trumpism label the free press, "the enemy of the people."

Fascists created the "big lie."  Say something often enough, and boldly, and the public will believe.   Trump follows in their footsteps.

Trump does not have "brown shirts," but although mouthing the occasional criticism, has been remarkably tolerant towards white supremacists.

The biggest difference is than while Hitler murdered millions in death camps, Trump is merely separating asylum seekers from their children, and mistreating both parents and kids.

As we watch our president stage a totalitarian style military parade on this precious 4th day of July, we must question whether he is taking us on the right path.