On July 2, after consistently bad poll numbers, the Trump campaign went dark in Michigan. Without Michigan Trump is down to 290, if he carried all the states that supported him in 2016. That is just 20 electors more than he needs to be reelected.
Trump is besieged on many fronts. If he lost Florida's 29 electors votes, Biden is our next president. Trailing there, he has allocated 39 million of his latest 126 million ad buy to his new home state. The next largest expenditure, nearly 19 million, is in the lately bright red state of Ohio. Trump is on defense.
Biden was born in Pennsylvania and his political career has been in the neighboring state of Delaware. Biden is a strong favorite to pick up Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes. That puts him only 2 electors away from victory. Any state will do. Currently Biden is ahead in the former Trump states of Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina. Georgia and Texas are a toss up.
To make up for likely losses, Trump needs to win someplace that voted for Clinton. His campaign has targeted New Hampshire's 4 and Minnesota's 10 electoral votes. He trails by double digits in both. His best chance for an electoral surprise is Nevada's 6 votes. Nevada would not be enough.
Money talks.
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