Battle of the Sexes

 Numbers don't lie, but their truth may be hidden.  Despite Trump's cat calls, in 2024 Republicans have doggedly pushed early voting.  The result has scared Democrats.  The Republican share of the 38 million votes cast to date is up, particularly in the sun belt.

Unnoticed is a brilliant ray of sunshine--roughly 10 per cent more women have early voted.  This year the gender gap is a chasm.  Trump's campaign is all wrestle mania and penis size, with a heavy sprinkling of anti-trans ads.  Kamala is pushing reproductive rights.

In an election between sisterhood and the bro vote, the early returns are promising.

Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

Trump is behind with 26 days to go before the election.  He needs each news cycle to be lead by either his signature issues, trade and immigration, or a reverberating attack on Hillary.  Each day devoted to his feud with Ryan or his groping of women, is at best a wasted day.  Even if those stories do not hurt his chances, and they should, they suck away his time.

While Trump fumes and dithers, Hillary is employing her strong ground game to bank ballots in early voting swing states.  If she still has a significant lead at the end of this month, we can begin popping corks.

Vote!

Early voting starts today in Indiana, Ohio, and Arizona.  Voting started yesterday in New Mexico.  If you live in one of those states please vote.  If you have friends in any of the early voting states, urge them to vote.  Thanks.

Her Own Private Iowa

Iowa is a demographic diaspora for Hillary.  The state has virtually no minorities, and less than a quarter of the population has a college education.

But with the early voting window open, light is shining through.  No post debate polls have dropped, but her numbers must be at, or near, a high point.  She may have the state largely to herself.  She has the larger organization and hordes of surrogates to get out the vote.

Hillary may steal Iowa while Trump tweets.

Election May be Over by Mid-October

Since Romney is  a notorious killer of varmints, perhaps his motor coach should be named the blunderbuss.  When compared to the Obama homage, the Romney convention was stuck in neutral.  Never has an uncontested convention shown so little interest in their nominee.  The convention will be best remembered for an empty chair and a prospective commander-in-chief, failing to mention an on going war or to thank the troops.

Lest anyone question his unfitness for duty,  Romney doubled down on an untruthful and disgraceful partisan attack during the embassy crisis.  His vagueness on his tax plan, and his campaign's failure to respond to attacks on him and Bain during the summer, have undercut his advantage on the economy. Recent polls reflect the Romney regression.

Obama's emphasis on the ground game may soon finish the race.  Early in person voting starts on September 27 in Iowa, and on October 2 in Ohio.  Absentee voting starts in 6 days in Virginia, and in early October in Florida and New Hampshire.  If Obama can sustain, or increase, his current advantage through the first debate on October 7, the blunderbuss will breakdown.

No help will come for the stranded campaign.  I predict that off of strong fundraising during the democratic convention, Obama will raise thirty million dollars more than Romney in September.  Karl Rove is one rat that knows when to abandon a sinking bus.  His super pacs will divert funds to house and senate races.

A bad debate will seal Mitt's fate.