The Vindication of Hillary

 Hillary faced hurricane level headwinds.  She was bashed by her gender, decades of right wing media and most importantly, the meaningless email scandal that was reinvigorated in the closing weeks of her  campaign.  Trump was given unlimited free media.  She lost, but by the narrowest of margins.  

The autopsy of her campaign was bloody, brutal, and ultimately, wrong.  She nailed Trump in all three debates and made historic inroads into the hispanic electorate.  She won the popular vote.  Her sins were underperforming many state polls, and a travel schedule that slighted parts of the Midwest.

Biden look up residence in the Midwestern battleground states.  He stayed on a message made powerful by the mounting deaths caused by Trump's incompetent response to the pandemic.  Although he probably will eke out the narrowest of victories, his underperformance of the polls is historic.  The ballot excess over Clinton in the MidWest, although determinative, is de minimis. 

With the hindsight of 2020, we can now reevaluate 2016.  Trump is a far more formidable candidate than we knew.  He is able to tap into an unimaginably large reservoir of white non-college educated grievance.  His death defying rallies work. He is shameless, which allows him to lie and cheat in electoral politics as he did in business.  He befuddles pollsters.

Press the Press

Trump defied the odds.  He didn't just draw to an inside straight.   He drew to an inside straight flush, missing two cards.  The last card off the bottom of the deck was Comey reopening the Clinton email investigation, but the first was dealt by the main stream media.

Mixing metaphors, they turned the Hillary email nothing burger into a 4x4 with extra onions.  Voters were presented a false choice of the lesser of two evils.  Only one candidate was a narcissistic racist.  Adding to the negligence of the press, was a ratings based race to cover Trump rallies en toto.  Never has a candidate received such a heaping helping of free media.

So, free press, having nearly destroyed the country you owe us one.  You are not artists, so paint by the numbers, do not go free form.  If Biden has an adverse medical record or exam, report it.  But do not create a "losing a step," narrative.  Biden gaffed at 35, and has gaffes now.  As a stutterer he often has to switch words mid-sentence to compensate.  That exacerbates his gaffes.

Dare not create a moral equivalency between the occasional misstatement by Biden, and the frequent misdeeds by Trump.

Phony Comey

Comey covered his ass, while splitting the nation down the middle.  He wants to be a boy scout, dutifully reporting to Congress.  Looking good is not the same as doing good.  For an FBI Director country must come before self.

Comey violated FBI and Justice department protocol by discussing an investigation, without even knowing if material evidence exists.  Clinton is placed in a false bad light, with no illumination.  As a general matter this is unethical--11 days before and election it is unconscionable.

2020

This election pivots on Clinton's attacks on Trump's temperament, and Trump foaming at the mouth to prove her point.  The result should be satisfying, the process, not so much.

For 2020 I am wishing for wonks.  Clinton and Ryan are policy wonks.  After bathing in dirty water, a shower of competing ideas might cleanse our national soul.

Carpe Diem

Before Trump, the mantra of every campaign was seize the day.  Whether by policy initiative, photo op or attack line, win every news cycle.  But as the Trump campaign is hell bound on hitting the gas and pounding into the wall, Hillary is stepping out of the way and out of the day.

Other than picking up a few checks, she has gone silent.  She is prepping, getting her nails done, taking a nap, watching soaps, anything but make news.

Campaigning can be relaxing when you run against a crash dummy.

Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

Trump is behind with 26 days to go before the election.  He needs each news cycle to be lead by either his signature issues, trade and immigration, or a reverberating attack on Hillary.  Each day devoted to his feud with Ryan or his groping of women, is at best a wasted day.  Even if those stories do not hurt his chances, and they should, they suck away his time.

While Trump fumes and dithers, Hillary is employing her strong ground game to bank ballots in early voting swing states.  If she still has a significant lead at the end of this month, we can begin popping corks.

Ptomaine Trump

Tonight Trump threw tainted red meat to his ravenous base.  He will put Hillary in jail, Bill does the terrible sexual things that Trump only talks about, Benghazi, and e-mails.  He was much better than in the first debate, which is like saying there were only a few cases of food poisoning.

He aggressively stalked Hillary all over the stage, but had little to show for it.  While his base was busily devouring his every word, undecided voters were looking to see what else was on the menu.

Nothing he said reassured suburban women.  Conservatives nibbling on the Pence fantasy, put down their forks when the VP nominee became roadkill.   Pence was not only wrong on Syria, Trump did not consider him worth consulting.

Hillary was calmer, more presidential.  She won on substance and on style.  Trump was unappetizing to a majority of the electorate before and after the debate.

Friends and Neighbors

Here is the ultimate test for undecided voters, or soft supporters.  Make a list of 5 friends and 5 neighbors.  Of those 10 people how many would be a better, safer choice for president than Donald Trump?

Unless you live in a think tank, policy depth will not be a strong suit for your list.  But policy is not a strong suit for Trump.  You expect your friends and neighbors would surround themselves with talented advisors, as you would hope the same for Trump.  But temperament is the deciding factor.  Everyone on my list has greater impulse control than Trump.

Now compare Hillary to your list.  You may find her too liberal, or conversely too tied to Wall Street. But she knows more about policy than anyone on your list.  She is steady.  She should be our next president.

Cart Before the Horse

The presidential candidate is usually the work horse pulling the party forward with a strong ground game.  Clinton, like Obama before her, has filled the battlegrounds with field offices and staff.  This may be most meaningful for the bottom of the ballot, state legislative races.

The least financed races benefit most, from efforts at the top.  Trump is running a very different campaign.  Rather than pulling the load, he is asking the local and state party apparatus to push him forward.  He has outsourced the ground game to them.

Well financed Senate and Gubenatorial races, may be able to pick up the slack.  But Democrats should see a resurgence in state houses, which down the road, will help with redistricting.

Lost in the Cornfields

The election may already be over.  Even if Trump plows through electorally rich Ohio and Florida, and pulls out Nevada and North Carolina, he needs Iowa's 6 electoral votes to get to the magic number of 270.

Before the presidential debate he had a slight lead in the Iowa polls, but not enough staff to harvest votes.  Early voting started in late September.   Clinton's likely post debate upsurge, coupled with her ground game, means that her early bird may have already caught the worm.

Her Own Private Iowa

Iowa is a demographic diaspora for Hillary.  The state has virtually no minorities, and less than a quarter of the population has a college education.

But with the early voting window open, light is shining through.  No post debate polls have dropped, but her numbers must be at, or near, a high point.  She may have the state largely to herself.  She has the larger organization and hordes of surrogates to get out the vote.

Hillary may steal Iowa while Trump tweets.

Millennial Madness

Working class Americans have often voted against their economic interest, lured by a GOP cynical clarion call on social issues.  Sadly millennials are falling into a similar trap.  Their purity of purpose is sullying their future.

The most recent poll has millennials at 31% for Clinton, 29% for Johnson and 26% for Trump.  Now lets look at positions on key issues.

Favors government action on Climate Change:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Debt Free College Tuition:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Raising Minimum Wage:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Displayed Foreign Policy Knowledge:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No

Johnson does win on one.
Legalizing Marijuana:  Clinton--No, Johnson--Yes, Trump--No

So millennials, I  have one question.  What have you been smoking?

Not So Rosie

Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway specializes in pairing women voters with unlikely Republican suitors.  She knew it was a tough night when she heard her candidate pull Rosie O'Donnell out of the ether.  That Rosie deserved it, was not a stirring defense to comparing women to various domestic and barnyard animals.

Conway's horrors continued.  After spending the night sniffling, snorting, yelling and interrupting,  Trump's effusive praise of his own temperament provoked uncontrollable laughter, from an audience admonished to show no reactions.  Hillary, always in control, merely smiled.  In fact she smiled through most of the last hour of the debate, watching her opponent flounder.

The coup de gras was Trump, under attack for his prior sexist statements that Hillary did not look presidential, pivoting to the only slightly less misogynistic claim, that she lacked stamina.  The statement was juxtaposed with Trump's tank running out of gas.  His national security rants were rambling, babbling brooks of incoherence.  He had neither the emotional, physical nor intellectual stamina to go ninety minutes with Hillary.

Kellyanne rushed to the spin room to attempt to repair the irreparable.

Change

Pundits mouth the mantra:  This is a change election.  Lost in the mystic mumbling is the change still in the tank of the Obama/Clinton agenda.  Obama inherited a capsized kayak of state.  He had to flip it over before he could move it forward.  Rowing against a strong Republican current has been slow and hard.

Hillary is best suited to make a progressive push forward.  Change is legislation passed, regulations implemented, modified or eliminated.  As a successful Senator and a policy wonk she has the chops to get us to the left bank.

But, particularly for millennials, the most important change, is climate change.  When we boomers are six feet underground, they may be six feet under water.  Trump is a climate denier.  Gary Johnson is a policy denier.  Libertarians want to let the market decide.  You may not like big oil's decisions.  The Green Party, bless their hearts, spent two hours at their convention on breathing exercises.  If you care about breathing clean air, drinking pure water, and tackling global warming, join every major environmental group in supporting Hillary.

Pearly Gates

Trump is more a fan of gold, but I doubt he has objections to pearls.  But the pearly gates may have objections to him.  Forget Hillary's shading of the truth, and Trump's braggadocio.  Forget her pant suits, and his hair.  Focus on the test that matters.  Have they each helped more people than they have hurt?   Is the world better because of them?

The answer is easy for Hillary.  As an attorney, and as first lady, in Arkansas and in the White House, she championed the cause of women and children.  As a Senator she worked to help New York rebuild after 9/11, and particularly worked on behalf of first responders.  GOP senators satisfying their base by vilifying Hillary, privately, and not so privately, admit they can work with her.  As a Senator she reached across the aisle.  Because of Bill's charisma, friends of Bill has become a catch phrase.  But her friendships are more telling.  At the convention we heard from a few.  She has long and deep friendships.  The kind that only endure by caring and listening.

The case for Trump is far less secure.  His life has featured self promotion, whether about his love life in his youth, or his business acumen in later years.  His goal has been to retain, and sometimes expand, the fortune left to him by his father.  His business dealings have spawned thousands of law suits.  He has used financial leverage to beat down vendors.  Employees and other stakeholders have suffered the costs of his bankruptcies, while he has bragged that he profited.  Trump has indiscriminately sold his name to scammers.  Thousands have lost all, or much of their life savings, through Trump Institute, Trump University, and numerous condominium projects that never broke ground.  Where are his life long friends?

Both Trump and Clinton have foundations.  With all the hyperbole around hers, it is easy to forget that it is a charitable foundation that does good works.  The Clinton tax returns show a pattern of donating roughly 10% of their income.  Media reports that Trump has stiffed his foundation since 2008.

Finally there are the campaigns.  A candidate cannot be blamed for who choses to support him.  But there is a reason that Trump has been endorsed by the American Nazi party, former Ku Klux Klan leader, David Duke, and various white supremacist groups.  From his birther attacks on Obama, through his immigration polices,  his campaign is about fearing and hating "the other."  It will not go down in history as a great campaign slogan, but Hillary's "Stronger Together," stands in stark contrast.

An Ego All a Twitter

Pundits pulsate that Hillary wins if the election is about Trump, and Trump wins if he can make the election about her.  But Tump and Hillary agree.  He wants the election to be about him, and so does she.  He prefers news that is rotten, than to be forgotten.

Hillary's paid media paints him as too dangerous to be trusted.  Better yet, like Tom Sawyer, she has convinced Trump to finish the job.  Painted into a corner, Trump has only one way to escape.  Carter successfully portrayed Reagan as dangerous until the first debate.  Reagan was reasonable and presidential.  Paid media never wins if it conflicts with free media.  Reagan won.

Trump is no Reagan.  Reagan was comfortable in his own skin.  Trump's skin is too thin, to reign in, his festering ego.

Playing the Long Game

I was mystified by Hillary's advertising strategy.  In 2012, with airwave superiority Obama bombed Romney's character, defining the race.  Hillary with even greater control of the airwaves, went positive, detailing her work for children.  Even her belated negative ads were soft--children watching Trump's greatest bits.

Free media is always more powerful than paid media.  Ads work when they focus and amplify free media.  Trump was having a bad June.  This was an obvious opening for attack ads against Trump.  Meanwhile, negative coverage of Hillary continued culminating in FBI Director Comey's harsh words.  Positive ads did not move the needle.

Hillary was playing the long game.  She does not want a yoyo diet of up and down polls.  She was softening hearts and opening minds, to close the sale at the Democratic convention.  To paraphrase, James Carville, it's all about the children, stupid.  If she can hold most of the Obama coalition, and pick off white married women, she will win handily.  The message of the convention: She cares about children and their future, Trump, not so much.  Children are the key to unlocking suburbia.

A Tale of Two Cities

It was the worst of prime times, it was the best of prime times.  Hillary had so many all stars that some were bumped out of the heart of the line up.  But for Trump's procreative powers, Scott Baio might have spoken all 4 nights.  Even so, Trump committed the cardinal sin of dead air during network coverage.

The master of media is even losing the ratings game.  More people are watching the Democratic convention.  Hillary's entertainers are A listers, Trump's aspire to one day be B listers.  Hillary in a tour de force shattered the glass ceiling.  Trump turned from orange to Blue.

Pennsylvania and Ohio, earned the conventions as battle ground states.  Conventions are heavily covered nationwide, but  local media doubles down.  Trump's play for positive Ohio press was neutralized, by the storyline of Kasich's absence.  Meanwhile, the first major pole to cover the VP pick and the first 2 nights of the convention has Hillary up 9 points in Pennsylvania.

Bernie's Babies

Convention delegates are usually seasoned pros with strong party connections.  They, through their candidate, extract concessions before falling in line behind the winner. Bernie has gotten extraordinary platform concessions, as well as reforms in the nominating process.  Seasoned pros, and that includes those few among Sanders delegates, declare victory and live to fight another day.

But Bernie is a life long independent with only a dotted line relationship to the Democratic Party.   His delegates are primarily freshly minted voters attending their first convention.  They drank the revolutionary Kool-Aid, and are now crashing from the sugar high.  They not only believed in the revolution, but were sure of its imminence.  The idealism of the young is their strength and their weakness.

Unlike his delegates, Bernie's voters have mainly moved over to Hillary.  They are made up of many long time Democrats fearful of Trump.  Unfortunately, Sanders delegates are unconcerned that their tantrums may hurt the chances of undecideds buying the Democratic ticket.  When Bill Clinton addressed the convention in support of Obama, he brought the house down.  This time, part of the house may come down on him.

About Face

Unlike Trump, Hillary has a wealth of choices for her running mate.   No one is turning her down.  Elizabeth Warren would double down on women, attract millennials and get under Donald's skin.  Labor Secretary Perez, or either of the Castro twins, would help with Hispanic turnout.  The Castro brothers are  remarkably gifted speakers.

For good reason, Tim Kaine is the favorite.  As the popular former governor and senator of Virginia, he would help Hillary in a battleground state.  His fluency in Spanish would make him an effective spokesperson on Univision and Telemundo.

But now that Trump has focused his campaign on security and law and order,  Hillary should consider a military pick.   Nothing says security like the military.  Hillary is already vetting retired Admiral Stavridis, former Allied Commander of Nato.  Rolling Stone Magazine notwithstanding, former General McCrystal might also be under consideration.

The pick would not be without risk.  Many progressives are uneasy about the military.  But Hillary's soft spot is the perception that she lacks integrity.  Nothing would harden that target more than the backing of a prestigious military partner.