2020

This election pivots on Clinton's attacks on Trump's temperament, and Trump foaming at the mouth to prove her point.  The result should be satisfying, the process, not so much.

For 2020 I am wishing for wonks.  Clinton and Ryan are policy wonks.  After bathing in dirty water, a shower of competing ideas might cleanse our national soul.

Trump Begins to Beg

Trump is the guy at a restaurant desperate for someone else at the table to pick up the check.  A presidential race costs upwards of a billion dollars even if you already have a ground game in place as Hillary does.  Trump does not.

Best estimates are that Trump has three hundred to four hundred million in liquid assets.  Trump is too cheap to spend much of that.  He has loaned about ten million to his campaign, and paid about 3 million back to himself for use of his plane, hotel space and banquet halls.

He needs the Republican party to fund his ground game.   To get that he has started to kiss ass.  On his website he has now posted a replacement for Obamacare, virtually identical to that of Paul Ryan, the titular head of the party.  As recently as the last debate his full plan was to make insurance companies compete on a national basis.

The groveling has only begun.  He may keep his pledge, and not have a SuperPac directly linked to his campaign, but he will look to Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and others to fund ads attacking Hillary.  Trump is both the prince and the pauper.

Ryan's Hope

The lords of the GOP are hoping for a white knight to unite the party's fiefdoms.  Fealty goes both ways, but there is always a winner. Paul Ryan is unique.  Party leaders are begging him to accept their support for Speaker.  Others are pleading for votes, beholden to each faction of the party.  Others would fear being unseated, Ryan could threaten to step down.

Ryan would be a strong Speaker.  Still the Speakership may be a trap.  The Speaker's job is to keep the lights on, at a time when many in his party yearn for a prince of darkness.

Ryan Pick: A Sign of Weakness

Paul Ryan may be an excellent selection.  He is bright, articulate and energetic.  He appeals to conservatives, including the tea party, but has won by large margins in a swing district.  So he may be able to appeal to some independents, particularly on the issue of the deficit.  Wisconsin may be in play.  But much of the importance of the selection is what it tells us about Romney and the state of his campaign.

Integrity dictates selecting a VP who would be ready on day one.  Ryan has neither the business experience that Romney extols, nor the foreign policy experience the country craves.  Perhaps Ryan can see Canada from his porch.

Boldness is often a sign of weakness.  McCain would never have picked Palin if his campaign was going well.  Ryan generates enthusiasm with the base.  With the distaste so many conservatives have for the President, this should be superfluous.  It is not.  More importantly, the selection belies the central tenet of the Romney campaign.

For the Romney team this was to be a referendum on a failed presidency.   Selecting Ryan is an acknowledgement that the Obama campaign has succeeded in making this a choice election.  Romney wanted the campaign to be only about jobs and the economy.  Ryan forces a doubling down on the Ryan budget, with Medicare restructuring and other potentially divisive issues.

Yet the talking point sent to key Republicans is classic Romney.  “Gov. Romney applauds Paul Ryan for going in the right direction with his budget, and as president he will be putting together his own plan for cutting the deficit and putting the budget on a path to balance."  As always he wants to have it both ways.

With the recent conservative drumbeat, in selecting Ryan, Romney appears to be dancing to someone else's  rhythm.  He may yet have to pay the piper.  Ryan is more popular with the base than Romney, and has eyes on being lead singer.  He may not follow the Romney playlist.  Still anything is better than another Romney rendition of "America the Beautiful."