Post Mortem

 Kamala had an amazing take off from a short run way.  I will not criticize her campaign.  She moved to the center hoping to pickup Haley republicans and many independents.  She emphasized reproductive rights, a winning issue in 2022.  The threat to Democracy was key, and surprisingly was the number one issue in exit polls.  She won the money race, established a great ground game, and nimbly exploited errors by the opposition.  Her team recognized this was a change election, using slogans such as, "Not going back," "New way forward", and  "Turn the page".

Unfortunately, she was tied to the immensely successful, and decidedly unpopular, Biden administration. Three quarters of voters rated Trump most likely to bring needed change.   We are not alone.  Post pandemic rage has riled governing parties in all western democracies.

As children we were told that sticks and stones can break our bones, but words can never hurt us.  As adults we have learned that is untrue.  Trump's "they, them" ads appealed to more than anti-trans bigotry.  The message was that the left cares more about pronouns than the real problems of the working class.  It makes democrats seem out of touch.

When I call to make an appointment with a lawyer I do not need to know the preferred pronoun of the secretary or receptionist.  Looking at a play bill I want to know about the past performances of an actor on the big screen, on the increasingly larger, small screen, and on the stage.  Preferred pronoun is of no importance.  

LatinX is another problem.  Many latinos hate the term that white liberals have imposed on them.

In retrospect the only chance for Democrats was Biden announcing early that he was not seeking a second term.  Although angering black women, the heart and soul of the party, primaries might have produced a candidate other than Kamala.  If it was Josh Shapiro, we might have won.  He is decidedly popular in the key, keystone state.  His message is tailored to working class voters and he is male.  Shamefully many men and, quite a few women, are unwilling to vote for a woman for president.

Fantastic Four

Four months of relentless competence prove elections matter.  The pandemic has been  wrestled to ever lower infection and death rates.  Fans are in the stands, students in schools and patrons in restaurants.  Who is that masked man?  At least outdoors, it is no longer me.

The economy is surging while claims for unemployment drop.  With a governing majority thinner than a gnat's wing, Biden passed a relief package  that will cut child poverty in half.

With governance replacing bluster, Biden hurdled over his first foreign policy crisis.  Netanyahu must show strength to retain the opportunity to form the next Israeli government.  Provoking him publicly with a demand for a cease fire, however satisfying, would have prolonged the conflict.  Biden may have thundered in private, but was tranquil in public.  A path guided by experience, saved lives.

The Vindication of Hillary

 Hillary faced hurricane level headwinds.  She was bashed by her gender, decades of right wing media and most importantly, the meaningless email scandal that was reinvigorated in the closing weeks of her  campaign.  Trump was given unlimited free media.  She lost, but by the narrowest of margins.  

The autopsy of her campaign was bloody, brutal, and ultimately, wrong.  She nailed Trump in all three debates and made historic inroads into the hispanic electorate.  She won the popular vote.  Her sins were underperforming many state polls, and a travel schedule that slighted parts of the Midwest.

Biden look up residence in the Midwestern battleground states.  He stayed on a message made powerful by the mounting deaths caused by Trump's incompetent response to the pandemic.  Although he probably will eke out the narrowest of victories, his underperformance of the polls is historic.  The ballot excess over Clinton in the MidWest, although determinative, is de minimis. 

With the hindsight of 2020, we can now reevaluate 2016.  Trump is a far more formidable candidate than we knew.  He is able to tap into an unimaginably large reservoir of white non-college educated grievance.  His death defying rallies work. He is shameless, which allows him to lie and cheat in electoral politics as he did in business.  He befuddles pollsters.

Know My Name

The most prominent jurist of her generation, Ruth Bader Ginsburg in life, created a more perfect union.  Her death could tear it asunder.

Politics does not stop for eulogies.  Everything RBG fought for is on the line.   The impact of another conservative on the Supreme Court is obvious.  The impact of the opening is less certain, but equally dangerous.

Through an apocalypse of fires in the west, hurricanes in the Southeast, and a nation ravaged by a plague, the presidential race has remained stable.  That has been good for Joe Biden.  

Every day the electorate focuses on the virus is good for Biden.  Changing the subject to the high court this late in the race may be a low blow.  Will it chase low propensity conservative voters to the polls, narrowing or obliterating his lead?  Or, can the talented Biden team turn the tables, as it did with "Law and Order," and neutralize the risk, and even bring their most flighty supporters to the ballot box?

If hypocrisy was a crime, the GOP senate caucus would convene in the prison yard.  Tit for tat, is not all that.  We need more.  Although the image of  buff and tattooed Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell pumping iron, does ease some of the pain.

After Trump announces his nominee, Biden must do the same.  He can choose someone who will electrify all of his supporters, or motivate just a key part of his base.  If willing, Michelle Obama comes to mind.  Her appeal is broad, but particularly strong with young voters and suburban women.  Alternatively, Biden could chose a prominent hispanic jurist.  Biden must seize the moment or be squeezed by history.

Florida Redemption

 In 2000, Florida gave us hanging chads, and no doubt, a similarly titled porn movie.  Florida was the land of constitutional gore.   But, all can be forgiven.

The 2000 recount was frantic, but not dangerous.  The two, decidedly main stream candidates, calmed their supporters.  Trump is different.   He has ranted that Democrats can only win by stealing the election, and that the getaway car will be mail in voting.   Not surprisingly, most Trump supporters will vote in person, while cognizant of Covid, most Biden backers plan to vote by mail.  

A probable scenario is the so-called red mirage.  In most battle ground states in person ballots are counted on the same day, but mail in ballots can take days, or even weeks.   If Trump is leading on election day, his supporters are primed to reject a different result when all ballots are counted.   Armed vigilantes, including white nationalists, will surround counting centers.  The red mirage could turn into blood in the streets.

But Florida can be our savior.  Florida does not accept ballots that arrive after election day.  In Florida, mail in ballots are often counted first.   If Biden wins Florida on election night, media will report that a blue wave has engulfed the red mirage.  Let the sunshine state cast its ever loving light on us.

Lazy Daze

These lazy, particularly crazy, days of summer are the product of the lazy daze of this administration.  Beginning with the winter of our discontent, this president has never expended the effort necessary to govern.

Joe Biden has a transition team hard at work.   The ship of state needs a large crew ready to go at embarkation.  After aborting a transition team under Chis Christy, Trump won the election without anyone to steer the ship.  His cadre was shocked to discover 6000 positions subject to presidential appointment.  He never made the effort to staff the government.

Obama appointees were left in position, vetting was slip shod leading to frequent embarrassments.  To this very summer day, scores of positions are either vacant or filled on a temporary basis.  Under, and poorly, staffed the government has flailed.

The books by Mary Trump and John Bolton, paint a shallow portrait.  Trump has never done an honest days work.  His younger sister did his college homework, his friend took his SAT, and daddy's money bailed him out of personal and business failures.  He neither reads his daily security reports nor absorbs his oral briefings.

He governs by tweets, executive proclamations and talking points.  He never does the hard work of developing policy and a course of action.  He golfed while the nation became engulfed in a pandemic.    He was glued to Fox News, as our bonds with our allies weakened, and our rivals shed our constraints.

To this day Trump refuses to do his homework before engaging with foreign leaders.  Better informed, our adversaries have the advantage.  But his greatest failing has been the Coronavirus.

As the nation begged for leadership, he left the hard work to the governors, never formulating a national policy.  As foreign  leaders imposed their will, bringing the virus to heel, we have allowed it to fester and proliferate.

Most recently Trump has called for schools to reopen.  He has reduced it to a slogan, rather than a plan.  To win reelection, he needs the economy to improve. School is the day care that allows return to full employment.  But Trump has refused to do the hard work of outlining and funding the steps for a safe reopening.

We need a hard working Joe.

Press the Press

Trump defied the odds.  He didn't just draw to an inside straight.   He drew to an inside straight flush, missing two cards.  The last card off the bottom of the deck was Comey reopening the Clinton email investigation, but the first was dealt by the main stream media.

Mixing metaphors, they turned the Hillary email nothing burger into a 4x4 with extra onions.  Voters were presented a false choice of the lesser of two evils.  Only one candidate was a narcissistic racist.  Adding to the negligence of the press, was a ratings based race to cover Trump rallies en toto.  Never has a candidate received such a heaping helping of free media.

So, free press, having nearly destroyed the country you owe us one.  You are not artists, so paint by the numbers, do not go free form.  If Biden has an adverse medical record or exam, report it.  But do not create a "losing a step," narrative.  Biden gaffed at 35, and has gaffes now.  As a stutterer he often has to switch words mid-sentence to compensate.  That exacerbates his gaffes.

Dare not create a moral equivalency between the occasional misstatement by Biden, and the frequent misdeeds by Trump.

Misread

My career as an employment lawyer included cases of discrimination and sexual harassment.  Harassment cases were the most likely to have a kernel of truth.   Whether or not it met the bar for legal harassment, usually some act had occurred.  So my tendency is to give great credibility to a complaint.

Circulating on twitter, and in right wing media, is an allegation by a short term former Biden staffer, Tara Reade, that in 1993 she was digitally penetrated by the former Vice President.  Even with my tendency to credit such claims, this appears spurious.

In 2019 she had a column published in Medium about her mistreatment as a staffer for then Senator Joe Biden.  She claims that she was asked to be a cocktail server at a fundraiser, because Bidden though she had nice legs, but also noted she was cautioned not to dress sexy at the event.  More importantly, she repeated the often made complaints of non sexual touching, in this case of her shoulder and neck.

Markedly missing is the much more sexually explicit claim.  Certainly it is understandable and common for a woman to go many years before asserting a claim of harassment.  But quite unusual is to mention shoulder touching and leave out sexual assault.

The article is also ambiguous about whether she quit or was fired.  She vaguely implies that she complained, but is quite unclear whether she ever mentioned the touching.

In 2019 she remembered shoulder touching in 1993, but did not remember digital penetration until Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2020.

Also curiously she recently deleted her string of tweets which passionately embraced Putin and Russia.  Just a little suspicious.

Nevada Debate Winners and Losers

WINNERS

Elizabeth Warren

In a New York minute she took the bloom off the billionaire ex-mayor.  She knew the abc's of nda's.  She was passionate and aggressive, arresting her downward spiral with a strong bid back into the top tier.

Joe Biden

Like Elizabeth, Joe needed to stop the bleeding.  Biden had his best debate, avoiding the destruction derby in the moderate lane.  Biden's early problems fueled the Bloomberg surge.  Bloomberg's collisions, cleared the path for Joe.

Bernie Sanders

His one note semi-socialist samba, remains atop the Democratic hit parade.  Like Dewars Scotch, Bernie never varies.  That was enough, on a night when Bloomberg drew the heat.  Bernie left the stage, relatively unscathed.  That is enough for the front runner.

LOSERS

Mike Bloomberg

As a technocrat, debating has never been a strength. But on Wednesday he was clearly not ready for prime time.  A record 20 million viewers tuned in to see the man behind the ads.  He looked like New Coke.  Well promoted, but not a keeper.  No doubt all his well shod horses, and well paid men will be able to put his image back together again.  A few hundred million in ads can save the day, provided he does not lay an egg in the next debate.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar

Pete wove his usual word spell.  Amy had grit and wit.  But the fight between the two, usually polite Midwesterners, was to the detriment of both.  They are drawing from the same pool of voters.  Their tiff could have a few voters swimming away.

Tom Steyer 

Out of sight, out of mind.  Failing to qualify, nullified the opportunity fo show 20 million viewers that he is the good billionaire.

New Hampshire Winners and Losers

Winners

Amy Klobuchar

She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates.  But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing.  She rocked the Granite State.

Pete Buttigieg

Double the pleasure, double the fun.  After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates.  His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.

Losers

Elizabeth Warren

Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night.  She entered the primary with major advantages.  Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market.  So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known.  Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.

She has no obvious path forward.  She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire.  Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy.  Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party.  Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy.  To date that is a road less traveled.

Joe Bidden

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls.  Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.

As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment.  In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump.  But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward.  If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.

Bernie Sanders

Yes, he won.  Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa.  Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination.  But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar.  As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory.  In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent.  The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.

But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy.  Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women.  The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young.  Young  voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016.  Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.

The Dropouts

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire.  Neither did well enough to stay in the race.  I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration.  We need a futurist.

Why Not Bernie?

The three most important things in real estate are, location, location and location.  In the 2020 presidential election the three most important things are beat Trump, beat Trump, and beat Trump.  Senator Sanders is a man of integrity, worthy of our respect, but not of our vote.  Although he can raise money, and the spirits of the young, he is the least likely candidate to beat Trump.

At no time during the 2016 campaign, nor since, has Trump's approval rating topped fifty per cent.  As such, he cannot win, but he can make his opponent lose.  He will never be the vessel of our hopes, but rather the alternative to our fears.  In 2020 he will run against the radical Democrats, embodied by the term socialism.

Socialism is not scary to millennials, but it spooks the suburbs that carried us to victory in the midterms, and that will be crucial in 2020.  Bernie is a proud, self proclaimed, Democratic Socialist.  Democratic will he as silent as the "h" in herbs.  Socialist will be loud and booming.

Loud and booming is another Bernie problem.  Many of the Obama voters who subsequently backed Trump have expressed a desire for another Obama; someone diplomatic and cerebral.  Other than Trump, Bernie is the loudest and most bombastic candidate.  Granted he is a truth teller with substance, but his style is all wrong.  After 2 years of chaos, we do not want to be yelled at.  Bernie's stage whisper would make us cry for Evita.

Getting back to real estate, location does indeed matter.  Democrats have about 200 electoral votes locked up.  The remaining 70 must come either from the Midwest or the Southwest.  As a proud son of Vermont, Bernie is from the wrong region.  Biden, Klobuchar, and Mayor Pete have midwestern roots, while Beto and Castro could put Texas and Arizona in play.

In 2020, we must play to win.

Biden Bashing

The elite bi-coastal 10 day Biden bashing cruise had empty cabins.  As I expected, Biden's poll numbers are not only steady, but up, notwithstanding, ten days of liberal media, and the female young turks of the party, saying, "Biden's conduct may not be disqualifying, but..."

Biden's hugging was not only not sexual, but not gender based.  He hugs young, and old, men and women.  This was acknowledged, but then ignored by his critics.  The issue is not do women have a right to feel comfortable, but do we all have a guaranteed right to personal comfort?  Except for a few millennials ensconced in a safe space, we all know the answer is a resounding, no.

When a conversation at the next table in a restaurant reaches hockey announcer decibels, I am uncomfortable.  I have options.  I can move,  I can say something, or I can suck it up.  What I cannot do is take a video, and then go to their place of employment and try to get them fired.  Can we not take responsibility for our own personal comfort, and make our own way?

For the elite, the final straw was Biden having the audacity to joke about the issue, when he was grabbed by a union leader.  Without humor as a social lubricant, society grinds to a halt.  As the fringe of the Me Too Movement scowled, America smiled.

If a lesson is to be drawn from Biden, look not to his public displays of affection, but to his private affection.  His marriage is the exemplar of mutual respect and accomplishment.

Lucy Flores, the Bad Neighbor

If your dog is barking at night, a good neighbor will come over to complain before calling the police. Not Lucy Flores, she would have the riot squad breaking down your door, and a sniper taking out your dog.

In 2014 Ms. Flores was running for Lieutenant Governor of Nevada.  At her request, Joe Biden went to Nevada to endorse her candidacy.  As she was about to go on stage she alleges, that he grabbed her shoulders, and kissed the top or back of her head.  She admits it was not sexual, but says intentions don't matter.  It made her uncomfortable.

As a strong empowered woman running for constitution office, she could have told Biden to stop.  If not, as a fellow member of the party, she could have written or called Biden to express her feelings.  She could have been the good neighbor.  But instead she has waited nearly 5 years, until he was about to announce his candidacy.  Nor did she have the courtesy to complain privately, but instead sought the public spotlight in an attempt to bring the wrath of the "Me Too" movement down upon Joe.

For the Me Too Movement to maintain its moral authority it must separated the serious from the spurious.

Surrogate Supremacy

Clinton's starting surrogate lineup is President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and former president Bill Clinton.  She has a deep bench including Dr. Jill Biden, Chelsea Clinton,  Senator Tim Kaine, Julian Castro, Harold Ford Jr., and virtually all Democratic elected officials as well as most of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.

Trump's starting five are, former speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Chris Christie, Senator Sessions, Surgeon Ben Carson and Trump's daughter, Ivanka.  His two sons and his wife are on the bench.

For the following reasons Hillary will trounce Trump with her surrogate dream team.

MONEY HONEY

How many Trump surrogates can fill a cocktail party at $100 a pop?  Hillary's team can guarantee $1000 on up to the contribution maximum.  She will maintain her financial edge without spending all of her time fundraising.

QUEEN FOR A DAY

Trump triumphed in the primaries by dominating free media.  Hillary giving a speech with any of her top surrogates, is the lead story, burying Trump in the back pages.

HEAVIES IN THE HUSTINGS

Local media may be below the radar, but it radiates votes.  If Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren appear in a town of thirty thousand, they will be on the front page and dominate local media.  Local media is usually positive.

ECHO CHAMBER

Hillary's message will reverberate through the thousand voices of a united party.  Trump will often be greeted with the sounds of silence.

Biden: His Time

Biden gaffes are fodder for late night comedians.  He is the underdog for Thursday's debate in Danville Kentucky.  But I fearlessly predict that it will be Ryan face down in the blue grass.

Biden is constantly underrated.  He gave one of the best speeches at the convention.  He is the Obama campaign's secret weapon in the midwest.  Elites may laugh, and the right may snicker, because his blue collar roots are showing.  But, he is a crowd please for that very reason.

Ryan may be able to see Canada from his front porch, but Biden has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  Romney and Ryan saber rattle from the safety of their desks.  Biden's son is a warrior.

If you bet on a long shot, the payoff is bigger.  Biden will cross the wire first.  Ryan will be bottled in bond, while Biden is enjoying some good sipping whiskey.