Nevada Debate Winners and Losers

WINNERS

Elizabeth Warren

In a New York minute she took the bloom off the billionaire ex-mayor.  She knew the abc's of nda's.  She was passionate and aggressive, arresting her downward spiral with a strong bid back into the top tier.

Joe Biden

Like Elizabeth, Joe needed to stop the bleeding.  Biden had his best debate, avoiding the destruction derby in the moderate lane.  Biden's early problems fueled the Bloomberg surge.  Bloomberg's collisions, cleared the path for Joe.

Bernie Sanders

His one note semi-socialist samba, remains atop the Democratic hit parade.  Like Dewars Scotch, Bernie never varies.  That was enough, on a night when Bloomberg drew the heat.  Bernie left the stage, relatively unscathed.  That is enough for the front runner.

LOSERS

Mike Bloomberg

As a technocrat, debating has never been a strength. But on Wednesday he was clearly not ready for prime time.  A record 20 million viewers tuned in to see the man behind the ads.  He looked like New Coke.  Well promoted, but not a keeper.  No doubt all his well shod horses, and well paid men will be able to put his image back together again.  A few hundred million in ads can save the day, provided he does not lay an egg in the next debate.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar

Pete wove his usual word spell.  Amy had grit and wit.  But the fight between the two, usually polite Midwesterners, was to the detriment of both.  They are drawing from the same pool of voters.  Their tiff could have a few voters swimming away.

Tom Steyer 

Out of sight, out of mind.  Failing to qualify, nullified the opportunity fo show 20 million viewers that he is the good billionaire.

Why Not Bernie?

The three most important things in real estate are, location, location and location.  In the 2020 presidential election the three most important things are beat Trump, beat Trump, and beat Trump.  Senator Sanders is a man of integrity, worthy of our respect, but not of our vote.  Although he can raise money, and the spirits of the young, he is the least likely candidate to beat Trump.

At no time during the 2016 campaign, nor since, has Trump's approval rating topped fifty per cent.  As such, he cannot win, but he can make his opponent lose.  He will never be the vessel of our hopes, but rather the alternative to our fears.  In 2020 he will run against the radical Democrats, embodied by the term socialism.

Socialism is not scary to millennials, but it spooks the suburbs that carried us to victory in the midterms, and that will be crucial in 2020.  Bernie is a proud, self proclaimed, Democratic Socialist.  Democratic will he as silent as the "h" in herbs.  Socialist will be loud and booming.

Loud and booming is another Bernie problem.  Many of the Obama voters who subsequently backed Trump have expressed a desire for another Obama; someone diplomatic and cerebral.  Other than Trump, Bernie is the loudest and most bombastic candidate.  Granted he is a truth teller with substance, but his style is all wrong.  After 2 years of chaos, we do not want to be yelled at.  Bernie's stage whisper would make us cry for Evita.

Getting back to real estate, location does indeed matter.  Democrats have about 200 electoral votes locked up.  The remaining 70 must come either from the Midwest or the Southwest.  As a proud son of Vermont, Bernie is from the wrong region.  Biden, Klobuchar, and Mayor Pete have midwestern roots, while Beto and Castro could put Texas and Arizona in play.

In 2020, we must play to win.

Trump Threatens Our Democracy

If elected, Trump's authoritarian streak, is inconsistent with our democratic traditions.  Now, even in defeat, Trump poses a similar threat.  Almost lost in his sea of gaffes, is his claim that the election is rigged.

Bernie Sanders, with some justification, made similar claims about the Democratic Primaries.  Hillary had paid her dues for decades as a loyal Democrat, while Bernie went his own way as an Independent.  Her reservoir of good will made Bernie's task more difficult, but did not cause his defeat.  Yet even with a full throated endorsement, Bernie could not quiet all of his delegates.

The glimmering moment of our union is the peaceful, choreographed transfer of power from one administration to the next.  Second only to that, is the graceful concession speech, and offer of support, by the defeated presidential candidate.  A petulant Trump is laying the groundwork for very different oratory.  His already unruly supporters, could threaten the unity of America if Trump belittles and challenges the sanctity of our electoral process.

Bernie's Babies

Convention delegates are usually seasoned pros with strong party connections.  They, through their candidate, extract concessions before falling in line behind the winner. Bernie has gotten extraordinary platform concessions, as well as reforms in the nominating process.  Seasoned pros, and that includes those few among Sanders delegates, declare victory and live to fight another day.

But Bernie is a life long independent with only a dotted line relationship to the Democratic Party.   His delegates are primarily freshly minted voters attending their first convention.  They drank the revolutionary Kool-Aid, and are now crashing from the sugar high.  They not only believed in the revolution, but were sure of its imminence.  The idealism of the young is their strength and their weakness.

Unlike his delegates, Bernie's voters have mainly moved over to Hillary.  They are made up of many long time Democrats fearful of Trump.  Unfortunately, Sanders delegates are unconcerned that their tantrums may hurt the chances of undecideds buying the Democratic ticket.  When Bill Clinton addressed the convention in support of Obama, he brought the house down.  This time, part of the house may come down on him.

Bernie's Undemocratic Campaign

Last night Hillary won the Washington State Primary.  Few noticed since Bernie won the majority of delegates earlier, through the state caucuses.  The self proclaimed voice of the people has relied unduly on the undemocratic caucuses.  Primaries allow voting throughout the day, and even provide absentee voting for those unable to make it to the polls.  Caucuses exclude, or make it more difficult, for parents of young children, people working swing or night shifts and completely exclude members of the armed forces.  People who rely on the sanctity of the secret ballot are forced to publicly proclaim their preference or skip the proceedings.

Other than caucuses, Sanders has relied on unDemocratic primaries, my term for the misleading designation "Open Primaries."  General elections are open to all registered voters.  But primaries select the nominee from a specific party.  Quite reasonably, some state Democratic parties require that primary voters at least take the rudimentary step of aligning with the Democratic party through the voter registration process.  Sanders has lost all of these Democratic primaries.

Sanders, a life long independent, only registered as a Democrat for ballot access.  Yesterday when asked if he had any loyalty to the party, he ducked the question and instead voiced his opposition to Trump.  How unseemly then, that Bernie wants to radically change the party and its procedures.  It is like a neighbor telling you how to raise your child.

SuperDelegates

Bernie is the guy who never picks up the check.  After 25 years in the Senate as an independent, he joined the Democratic Party, solely for what the party could do for him.  At a minimum he sought a national platform for his ideas, at the high end, a process and organization that could make him president.

SuperDelegates are the heart and soul of the party.  They are office holders and key operatives that have devoted the better part of their adult lives to the party.  As a reward they are assured a seat, and a vote, at the convention.  They make up 15 percent of the total.

Bernie has SuperDelegate envy.  He swivels between castigating them for not being democratic, and strategizing to use them to win the nomination, even if Hillary has the majority of pledged delegates. Barring an event that makes Clinton unelectable, she has earned the support of SuperDelegates.  She is not a user.  She has picked up her fair share of the checks.  Directly or indirectly she has campaigned and raised money for most of the SuperDelegates.  They will repay her loyalty, and ignore the iconoclastic independent.

Not So Super Sanders

Sanders is beloved as a straight shooter, even if his shots veer far left of center.  Bewailing super delegates as anti-democratic seemed a principled stand, even if incidentally, Hillary has 20 times more super delegates than Bernie.

But now that Hillary has an insurmountable lead in democratically won delegates, Senator Sanders newly announced plan is to win by convincing super delegates to ignore that lead, and side with him.  Oh hypocrisy, Bernie be thy name.  We will need to reserve the pedestal for someone else.

Humility

If you must, there are many ways to parade moral superiority.  You can subsist on a diet of water and sprouts, or not own a television, or if you do, only watch PBS.  On a more serious and altruistic note, any number of worthy organizations need your time or money.  But the one place for humility, is the voting booth.

Nader supporters gave us the gore of war, instead of Gore in the White House.  The price of progressive purity was thousands dead or injured, and a depleted treasury with no funds to expand social programs.

Compared to Donald Trump, George W was the reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln.  I have taken the pledge, at #PledgeDem.  If Hillary falters, I will wholeheartedly support Senator Sanders.  You don't have to feel the Bern, to fear the fire on the other side of the aisle.  If Hillary wins I hope Bernie supporters will bring their passion to our campaign.

Opposites Attract

Polar opposites are pulling from the same pool of voters.  Many voters eschew the establishment,  deciding between Senator Sanders and The Donald.

The two candidates are fire and water.  One is a european style socialist, the other a billionaire capitalist.  Bernie is committed to public service.  Trump serves his own gold plated whims.  Bernie talks policy, while the ego driven Trump recites poll numbers as if they were boffo reviews.  Trump is an ultra nationalist, who has yet to find a minority that he will not degrade.   Bernie is poly cultural.

But if you want to bring the house down, you may not care whether by conflagration or flood.  Both promise a political revolution.  Both promise to fix a rigged system.  Neither is receiving financial support from the business or political elite.  Both are against foreign entanglements and free trade.  Although in the case of Trump beauty must be in eye of the supporter, both are regarded as telling it like it is.

Still the choice should be simple.  Bernie may be a true believer, but Trump truly only believes in himself.  If voters cannot pull the lever for Hillary, the best qualified candidate, they should at least select the guy with the best intentions.

Running Out the Clock

The debate was custom cut for Bernie--no foreign policy questions, and a focus on an economically distressed city and state.  Indeed, the Senator did score some points on trade agreements and was the pugnacious challenger throughout.  But Hillary won by not losing.

She already has a sizable delegate lead which, if current polls hold, will be impregnable by the end, if not the middle of this month.  So her goal was a mistake free performance, which neither angered the Bernie supporters nor scared the centrists that she would need in the fall.  Mission accomplished.

While cautious on some answers such as limitations on fracking, she avoided the temptation to go into the cursed prevent defense.  She turned the tables on the bailout vote, reminding the auto company dependent voters in the Midwest, that the bill financed the auto company bailout.  She scored the double whammy by tying the vote to her support for Obama.  She acceded to the recommendation of the then president elect, Bernie opposed him.

Republican candidates were the biggest losers.  Their juvenile antics suffered badly in comparison to this adult discussion focused on the needs of the American people.

End of the Beginning

The first four primaries are rounds of single malt scotch sipped slowly and savored.  Unfortunately for Bernie, the 4th round cost him 1.6 million but was watered down.  Hillary got the delegate buzz.

The twelve state blend coming on Tuesday figures to be more of the same.  Hillary sitting down with a bottle of Johnnie Walker Black, while the Senator gulps a shot of White Label.  She will have the high, he will have the hangover.  With proportional allocation throughout the remainder of the race, he may never recover.

The bar brawl on the Republican side is much the same.  The happy hour food fight may last through the winner take all in Florida on March 15, but Trump will be the last one standing.

It Takes A Village

The President has a problem.  His appointee for the Supreme Court may not even get a hearing.  The top candidates are unlikely to accept the role of sacrificial lamb.  A second tier candidate places less pressure on the GOP.

Bernie and Hillary, or at least Hillary, must agree to renominate Obama's choice.  By so doing, the candidate pool is improved, the issue of the Supreme Court becomes even more concrete, and the gender and/or ethnicity of the nominee can be part of the identity politics of the election.

In 2016 it takes a village to nominate a Supreme Court Justice.

Post Racial Politics

For an all too brief moment, optimists woke up on November 5, 2008 to a new era of post racial politics.  At the same time, key Republicans were secretly planing the annihilation of the Obama presidency.   Racism went underground, but the stench seeped up from the sewers.

In a shaded corner of the Democratic Party, post racial politics is sprouting.  A prior post explained the power of social networks to grow a Bernie majority amongst the young into a super majority.  Although trolls poxed with racism and sexism lurk on the internet,  social networks broadcast across race and gender.  Bernie's internet linked younger supporters do not respond to race or gender identity politics.

Although, I support Hillary,  a hint of post racial politics glimmers in Senator Sanders' generational appeal.

80,000

The numbers prove Senator Sanders will not be the next president.  The key numbers are not 53 to 47, the final returns in Nevada.  Nor is it the small number of additional delegates earned by Hillary.

Nor is it impossible for Bernie to be the nominee.  Certainly, with South Carolina and the Super Tuesday states coming up Hillary is the favorite but Bernie could still win.  The key numbers are 120,000 the number of Nevada caucus goers in 2008, as compared to 80,000, the number this year.

The single state primaries are about to yield to multi-state primaries.  As a far left candidate, single state primaries gave Bernie his best chance to prove he could fuel his revolution by expanding the electorate.  Compared to 2008, the number of Democratic participants has declined in Iowa, Nevada and New Hampshire.  Bernie has ceded the middle without expanding the base.  He would lose in November.

Predicting Nevada

Hillary has a blue chip organization, a paper thin lead in the polls and support from most unions other than the uncommitted culinary workers.  Hillary is the known quantity, virtually running as the incumbent.

Late deciders generally break for the challenger.  If this were a primary I would predict a 53-47 win for Sanders.  But in a caucus many undecided decide not to caucus.  Hoping to be wrong, I predict Bernie will have a 51-49 victory, with a slightly greater delegate lead because of strength in rural counties.

A Tale of Two Parties

The Grand Old Party has a field of children throwing spitballs at their debates.  Shouts of liar substitute for substance.   Cruz claims Mario was for immigrants before he was against them.  Chest pounding replaces foreign policy.  Cruz wants indiscriminate carpet bombing, Rubio wants boots on the ground, and Trump is for torture.  Carson babbles.

In contrast, Sanders and Hillary compare proposals on income equality, healthcare,  prison reform, and  campaign funding.   Bernie, who has only recently joined the party, considers attacks on his fealty to President Obama a low blow.  That was a love tap compared to the kicking and hair pulling amongst the disloyal opposition.

Sander's Sandbox

Bernie capturing nearly 85% of the under 25 vote is historic.  Closely correlated is his success with first time voters.  His policies have obvious appeal to young voters who are usually more idealistic.   Oddly, the iconoclastic Senator, may also benefit from herd mentality.  Millennials intimate connection through social networks may turn majorities into super majorities.  But while politically oriented networks may concentrate the vote, the key question is whether they expand the vote.

Bernie's electability argument hinges on the answer.  So far the answer is no.  Eschewing voters in the center Bernie argues that he can bring millions of new voters into the system, ensuring his election and fueling his political revolution.

Compared to the last contested Democratic primaries in 2008, in 2016 there are less voters, and less first time voters.  Voters age 18-24 have increased marginally from 11 to 12 per cent of the electorate.  As a general election candidate Bernie is not bringing in enough new voters to offset those he is losing.  Ironically, notwithstanding his opposition to SuperPacs, GOP SuperPacs are spending millions in support of Bernie.

2020

John and Sally,  23 year old McDonald's workers are talking during  their break.  "When we voted for Bernie I thought I would be able to go to college.  I never expected the Trump/Cruz ticket to carry 40 states.  Sally replies, "I thought if I had to take a fast food job I would get 15 dollars an hour.  Now there is no minimum wage."  "Yea, and what about Julia,  she is having a child after being raped, and has no paid leave and no insurance," says John.  When the Supreme Court allowed banning of abortions she was trapped."

The PBS debate, won handily by Hillary,  shows why Bernie would suffer a crushing defeat.  He became visibly cranky after softball attacks by Hillary.  If he thinks he suffered a low blow, he is not ready for the constant right wing kidney punches by Karl Rove and others.  When Hillary claimed his policies would be a 40% expansion of the federal government, he did not deny it.  Not a problem in the Democratic primaries, but enough to ensure his defeat in the general election.

Voting against both wars in Iraq, one right vote and one wrong vote, is not enough to qualify him as Commander in Chief.   His one note economic message stands in stark contrast to her 8 octave aria.

Chill, Bill

Bill is frustrated.  He knows as a politician, and as a spouse, that Hillary is best prepared to win in November, and govern in January.  A message candidate has caught fire and he wants to stomp him out.

Women gender equality pioneers and role models including Gloria Allred, Madeline Albright, a bevy of female senators, and yes, Hillary, are also frustrated.  Their success has freed women millennials to ignore gender and past contributions to the cause.

But rather than risky attempts to put out the fire, Bill and the campaign must patch and reinforce the Southern and Midwestern firewall.   This is why they built it.  Hillary will need Bernie and his supporters in the fall.  Now is not the time to burn bridges.

Who Won the 5th Debate?

If you read the online polls, it was Sander's sand box.  Those polls are meaningful, but do not answer the top line question.  The polls mean that Bernie is popular with the young, who are heavier internet users, and may also reflect an enthusiasm gap.

Thursday Bernie preached to the choir, while Hillary spoke to the world.  Fire and brimstone dominated the 1st third of the debate.  He railed against the sins of Wall Street and the outsize hubris of the big banks.  Campaign money is the root of all evil, he bellowed.  The chorus said verily it is so, and pointed at Hillary for taking the tainted money.

The last 2/3s of the debate were hers.  With the first question on foreign policy she visibly relaxed and took control.  She was enjoying herself.  Bernie's economic message is powerful and concise, but her breath and depth of knowledge is dazzling.