Predicting Nevada

Hillary has a blue chip organization, a paper thin lead in the polls and support from most unions other than the uncommitted culinary workers.  Hillary is the known quantity, virtually running as the incumbent.

Late deciders generally break for the challenger.  If this were a primary I would predict a 53-47 win for Sanders.  But in a caucus many undecided decide not to caucus.  Hoping to be wrong, I predict Bernie will have a 51-49 victory, with a slightly greater delegate lead because of strength in rural counties.