Hillary has a blue chip organization, a paper thin lead in the polls and support from most unions other than the uncommitted culinary workers. Hillary is the known quantity, virtually running as the incumbent.
Late deciders generally break for the challenger. If this were a primary I would predict a 53-47 win for Sanders. But in a caucus many undecided decide not to caucus. Hoping to be wrong, I predict Bernie will have a 51-49 victory, with a slightly greater delegate lead because of strength in rural counties.
Nate Silver at 538 gives a slight edge to Hillary. It would feel so right being wrong.
ReplyDeleteSo happy to be wrong. Anecdotally from reporters embedded in caucuses what I expected in Iowa happened in Nevada. Hillary's higher powered, more experienced caucus goers poached the undecideds.
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