Sunday, February 21, 2016

The Seven Year Itch

Seven years of Bush drove record turnout in the 2008 Democratic primaries.  Seven years of President Obama is doing the same thing for Republican primaries in 2016.  Perhaps only The Donald can bridge the enthusiasm gap for Democrats.

The GOP Senate leadership is doing what it can to help.  If the Supreme Court vacancy remains, a broad swath of progressives will flock to the polls.  A couple of the most qualified candidates for the court are Hispanic.  If the GOP refuses to consider a Hispanic nominee, it might galvanize the Latino community.

But no one can build a wall between Latinos and the GOP like Trump.  Make no mistake, Republicans will pay for that wall.   Trump's harsh anti-immigrant rhetoric would drive Hispanic turnout and registration, with dramatic down ballot impact.

With Trump heading the ticket the shocker will be greater African American turnout than during the Obama victories.  The concept of being "disrespected" is deeply embedded in the community.  The Trump lead birther movement, and intemperate tweets, disrespected the first Black president.  Blacks will respond with a vengeance.


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