Rubio Must Drop Out

The GOP elite is confused.   First they underestimated Trump, now they are swooning over a pretty face and a toothy smile.  Conventional wisdom is that the only chance to take down The Donald is a mano a mano between him and Marco.

That will not work.  When there are only two candidates one will win the nomination.  Looking at the polls and Trump's broad support,  Marco loses in a two man race.  Rubio has the cash and endorsements, but so far, more spin than voters.  The best chance to derail Trump is a 3 candidate race that leads to a brokered convention.

Until May 15 delegates are awarded proportionally, with a big advantage to a candidate winning 50% or more in a state or congressional district.  So the mainstream candidate needs Cruz to keep Trump under 50%.   Than there is the issue of home, sweet home. or in the case of Rubio home, sour home.

Cruz is leading in his home state of Texas.  With many early votes already  in the bank, and a massive ground game, he should hold on.  Mario is way behind in Florida, a winner take all state.  Kasich dropping out would not be enough for Rubio.  If Mario loses Florida his campaign flounders.

In contrast, Kasich is close in Ohio.  If Marco dropped out and endorsed Kasich he would win easily and have a leg up in the Midwest.  The strategy is for Cruz and Kasich to both attack Trump and ignore each other.  Both would run as regional candidates, concentrating resources in a handful of favorable states.  Cruz may be too damaged for this to work, but it may be the only way to play One No Trump.