Bucks for the Buckeye

Although he gets call backs,  Kasich is the extra, with the other three candidates getting the lines.  His endorsers are ex-senators, ex-governors, and the ex-speaker.  When he dials for dollars, he gets excuses.  But his Rodney Dangerfield days may soon be over.  If as expected, Rubio loses Florida, and he wins Ohio, Kasich will get some respect.

More important than the soon to come backing of Republican blue bloods, will be the greenbacks.   Money may finally meet message.  With ample air time, his adult in the room, compassionate conservative theme may resonate in the moderate states coming up on the calendar.

Who Won the GOP Miami Debate?

The clear winner was Rubio.  As a progressive, I can only be thankful that his campaign has been so mismanaged that it is too little, too late.  He was articulate, persuasive and personable.

Trump was running out the clock looking forward to another good night on Tuesday.  He was restrained and modulated, as close as he can get to presidential.  By emerging unscathed, he also won.  He made the big news of the night.  As all of us who follow him knew, he will not self finance his general election campaign.  He said that although he committed to  funding his primary campaign, he may accept help from major donors in the general election.

Kasich who won the last two debates by smoothly sailing through choppy waters, was indistinguishable in a sea of civility.  Cruz, always in unctuous prosecutorial mode, is wearing thin.

This was the most substantive Republican debate.  Ratings will no doubt plummet.

Who Won the Fox GOP Debate?

Now that the show is in reruns, pundits question whether voters will experience Trump fatigue.  To date the answer is no.  But Donald may be falling victim to the syndrome.  After assuring us that he was well endowed, he seemed bored with the rest of his own responses.

Kasich had a very good night.  He washed his hands while others were in a pissing contest.  Although a solid insult to both,  he is the Republican Hillary.  Like Hillary he passionately believes in the principles of his party, but also like Hillary, he is more of a problem solver than an ideologue.   As usual online polls have Trump as the winner, but for the first time Kasich is second.  He will get a boost.

Rubio and Cruz were as expected.  Cruz is a solicitor with a conservative core, and Marco is the young optimistic neocon.  Neither made a mistake.  Neither advanced their cause.

By not appearing, Dr. Ben had his best debate.

Who Won the Houston GOP Debate?

In a normal year Kasich won hands down.  His calm demeanor, sensible proposals and exposition of a resume that is on point for present problems would carry the day.  But this is not that year, and last night was not that day.

Carson, would be the clear loser, but given his lack of relevance and limited air time you would have to give him an incomplete.  His desperate plea for air time, "Someone please attack me," was the comic relief in a nasty brawl.  I doubt I am the only one who records the debate so I can fast forward through Dr. Ben.

The other loser was Cruz--the winners Rubio and Trump.  Marco and Ted spent most of the evening attacking The Donald.  Marco had the better lines and stuck the knife in with a smile.  Cruz was a cross between a stern high school principal and the smarmy adult in "Beach Blanket Bingo."

Marco exposed Trump for a lack of a replacement for Obamacare, and for hiring foreign workers rather than Americans.  But Trump had a few counter attacks and blustered through.  Since he was entitled to respond to each attack he dominated the air time.

Plus Trump had a big ace in the hole--Chris Christie.  Trump knows that for every person watching the debate, 20 form an opinion through sound bites.  Trump used the Christie endorsement to cover the post debate news cycle.

Rubio Must Drop Out

The GOP elite is confused.   First they underestimated Trump, now they are swooning over a pretty face and a toothy smile.  Conventional wisdom is that the only chance to take down The Donald is a mano a mano between him and Marco.

That will not work.  When there are only two candidates one will win the nomination.  Looking at the polls and Trump's broad support,  Marco loses in a two man race.  Rubio has the cash and endorsements, but so far, more spin than voters.  The best chance to derail Trump is a 3 candidate race that leads to a brokered convention.

Until May 15 delegates are awarded proportionally, with a big advantage to a candidate winning 50% or more in a state or congressional district.  So the mainstream candidate needs Cruz to keep Trump under 50%.   Than there is the issue of home, sweet home. or in the case of Rubio home, sour home.

Cruz is leading in his home state of Texas.  With many early votes already  in the bank, and a massive ground game, he should hold on.  Mario is way behind in Florida, a winner take all state.  Kasich dropping out would not be enough for Rubio.  If Mario loses Florida his campaign flounders.

In contrast, Kasich is close in Ohio.  If Marco dropped out and endorsed Kasich he would win easily and have a leg up in the Midwest.  The strategy is for Cruz and Kasich to both attack Trump and ignore each other.  Both would run as regional candidates, concentrating resources in a handful of favorable states.  Cruz may be too damaged for this to work, but it may be the only way to play One No Trump.

The Case for Kasich Redux

Back in September I predicted that battle for GOP establishment support would narrow to Kasich and Rubio, with Kasich prevailing with superior political instincts and acumen.  http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-case-for-kasich.html

For some time it  I was seemingly whistling into the wind, a wind that became a gale force after Iowa.  Now that the stepford  candidate stood exposed on the ABC debate stage, the wind is at my back.

Tuesday could see a second place finish by the Ohio governor.

Swimming Up Stream

With a tip of the hat to Barry McGuire, in 2012 Republican candidates were ever, "On the eve of (self) destruction."  Who can forget such hits as, "9-9-9,"  "47%," and on the senatorial side, "I am not a witch."

Although my progressive allies may titter and twitter, in 2016 the Republicans have streamed a field of well schooled candidates.  Marco Rubio is energetic, photogenic, and articulate.  He has a powerful personal story, speaks fluent Spanish, and hails from the key state of Florida.  Walker and Kasich as purple state warriors, could make inroads in the Midwest.  Kasich could lock down the Republican must win state of Ohio, where he enjoys a remarkable 60% approval rating as governor.  His resume rivals Hilary's including 9 terms in the House, serving as  Chair of the Budget Committee.

Ted Cruz is prepared to carry the ultraconservative water if Trump starts leaking support.  Cruz has Ivy league credentials and was a national debate champion.  Jeb is a cash machine.  Even competing with 15 other panderers, he has nearly doubled Clinton's take, even though she has no competition for major liberal donors.  Like Mario he is Florida based and speaks Spanish.

The GOP will fail to cross the electoral divide not because of the quality of candidates, but because there is no rightward passage.  The Republican nominee will be cut off from Hispanic votes by xenophobic positions on immigration.  For gays, the young, and many independents, the GOP has lost its way on gay marriage.   A barrage of intemperate remarks keeps women, particularly single women, out of reach.  Attacks on voting rights, has made outreach for Black support, a bridge too far.

Even a strong candidate will stumble on a shaky platform.