Uneasy Lies the Crown

As soon as the establishment kisses the ring, the would be king is toppled.  There will not be a Bush III or a Marco I.  But for Jeb's infamy,  Rubio would be a record setting failure.  Notwithstanding unlimited endorsements and resources, Rubio was Clark Kent on Super Tuesday and Semi-Super Saturday.

With phone booths a rarity, he is unlikely to change in to super Marco in time for Florida.  Exit Rubio, stage right.

Bush Whacked

The "Shock and Awe" campaign is now the aww, shucks ex-campaign.  The GOP has turned to the dark side.  The foreign policy choice is between boots on the ground,  unfettered carpet bombing and torture.   Mexico is to build a wall, Muslims are to be excluded, mosques are to be closed.  The right to choose will be between a hand gun and a semi-automatic.  Merging old with new, the wealthiest will have tax reductions.

The Grand Old Party is playing a tune no one should dance to.

Comparing Jeb to W

For the Bush family, W was the accidental president.  George was uneven and scraggily while Jeb was pure topiary.  Jeb was expected to be president.   The reasons are obvious. W had a drinking problem, and my friends in Austin swear, a fondness for nose candy.  Jeb was the deeper thinker, and now it seems marginally, the better speaker.  Grammar was not his enemy.

But Jeb's failure, and W's electoral success, was no accident.  W, unlike Jeb, is comfortable in his own skin.  He enjoyed the rough and tumble of politics, and although, bonkers on policy, was a political wonk.  He was so skillful that he defeated Ann Richards, a lioness in Democratic politics.  

Debating before the American public is about personality and confidence.  If you are uncomfortable, the public will be uncomfortable with you.  W's self deprecating humor covered most gaffes.  W enjoyed debating and was so secure that he was bemused by attacks.  Jeb hates campaigning.  He wants to be anointed.  He disliked being forced on to a debate stage, and because of that, the public dislikes him.  

We all would rather have a club soda with, the now sober, W than a beer with Jeb.

Bush Trimmed

Trump towering over the field is the lead political story to date, but the subscript is the utter failure of Jeb Bush.  Blessed with near 100 percent name recognition, and a bankroll as big as Trump's ego he is no doubt cursing, as his poll numbers dip into single digits.

Bush may be lucky that Trump siphons all the oxygen from the room.  Whenever Bush comes up for air, he sputters something so bad that he spends the next day walking it back.

 After this summer of their discontent, Republicans may fall into line behind an establishment candidate.  Bush's money and organization may yet grind out a victory.  But it is not likely.  Even his key fundraising consultants are leaving.  http://www.politico.com/story/2015/08/jeb-bush-president-2016-fundraisers-problems-213156

Swimming Up Stream

With a tip of the hat to Barry McGuire, in 2012 Republican candidates were ever, "On the eve of (self) destruction."  Who can forget such hits as, "9-9-9,"  "47%," and on the senatorial side, "I am not a witch."

Although my progressive allies may titter and twitter, in 2016 the Republicans have streamed a field of well schooled candidates.  Marco Rubio is energetic, photogenic, and articulate.  He has a powerful personal story, speaks fluent Spanish, and hails from the key state of Florida.  Walker and Kasich as purple state warriors, could make inroads in the Midwest.  Kasich could lock down the Republican must win state of Ohio, where he enjoys a remarkable 60% approval rating as governor.  His resume rivals Hilary's including 9 terms in the House, serving as  Chair of the Budget Committee.

Ted Cruz is prepared to carry the ultraconservative water if Trump starts leaking support.  Cruz has Ivy league credentials and was a national debate champion.  Jeb is a cash machine.  Even competing with 15 other panderers, he has nearly doubled Clinton's take, even though she has no competition for major liberal donors.  Like Mario he is Florida based and speaks Spanish.

The GOP will fail to cross the electoral divide not because of the quality of candidates, but because there is no rightward passage.  The Republican nominee will be cut off from Hispanic votes by xenophobic positions on immigration.  For gays, the young, and many independents, the GOP has lost its way on gay marriage.   A barrage of intemperate remarks keeps women, particularly single women, out of reach.  Attacks on voting rights, has made outreach for Black support, a bridge too far.

Even a strong candidate will stumble on a shaky platform.

Trump's Money Problem

Trump's thin skin may do him in.  But when the tale is told, it may actually be his bill fold.  Having touted himself as the self funded ten billion dollar man, he cannot pass the hat.

Trump's net worth while substantial, is far less than advertised.  His estimate includes a high valuation for his name as a "brand."  Independent experts estimate he has a net worth closer to 1.5 billion. of which about 300 million is liquid.  A fortune by any standards, except perhaps, those of a self funded presidential candidate.

So far free media in the early stages has hidden that Trump is running a low budget campaign.  Bush, counting SuperPacs, has already amassed well over a hundred million dollars.  When Bush and company's bruising organizational muscle in Iowa and powerful negative advertising in New Hampshire starts to hurt,  how much of his fortune will Trump risk?  His business history indicates very little.

Trump owns only a small slice of buildings emboldened with his name.  He lends his name, for a price, not his capital. Even if he commits one half of his liquid assets he will have the small stack at the top tier candidate table.  The media, like lady luck, is fickle.  At some point you have to pay the piper, or at least the network, for a 30 second spot.

Republican Candidates: Liars or Lunatics?

Republican presidential candidates are day one divas.  In 2012 Romney promised to repeal Obamacare on his first day in office.  Not to be outdone,  Walker has promised to repeal the Iran Treaty after swearing the oath of office.  Rubio, Cruz and Bush echo those sentiments.

Are they too young to remember "One (is the loneliest number)" by Three Dog Night?  Neither Russia and China, nor our allies, would renege on the agreement.  It is a near miracle that Hillary Clinton cobbled, and held, together the sanction odd fellows.  We would stand alone with useless unilateral sanctions and no ability to enforce constraints on Iran.

If by some miracle,  a Republican president could rebuild the sanction alliance, Iran would have between a 100 and 150 billion dollars and no treaty obligations.  Is this crop of Republicans just spreading  fertilizer?   I hope so.  Better duplicitous than dumb.

The Burning Bush

Perhaps smoking Bush would be more accurate, and not in a good way.   Jeb is too bland to ignite. But, his recent comments on Cuba, if not quite incendiary, had me seeing red.

"This July 4, reports of a new US Embassy in Havana will legitimize repression in Cuba, not promote the cause of freedom and democracy."

Hypocrisy is why so many Americans are turned off on politics and politicians. Saudi Arabia makes Cuba look like a democratic paradise. Bush's remarks would be understandable if he sought to follow in President Carter's footsteps, by prioritizing human rights issues in foreign policy. But to do that he would have to condemn the human rights abuses in Saudi Arabia.

We will wait a long time for that condemnation. The Bush family has extensive ties to the Saudi's. Compared to the old hat of pandering to Cuban voters in Florida, even a pant suit seems new.