Needle in Neutral

The debate went much as I predicted in my prior post.  Pence was dollars ahead on style.  His talk show experience was evident.  On that front Kaine was worse than I expected.  His stock in trade is likability.  As a good soldier he aggressively charged forward in a way that some, such as Biden, can bring off, but not Kaine. He was ill served by the campaign.

Not unexpectedly, even with a CNN poll that had more Democratic respondents, Pence won 48 to 42.  But Kaine, who lost the battle, may yet win the war.  Pence was calm and presidential.   Many in the GOP may take some solace about the bottom of their ticket, and even envision him as a future nominee.  Pence helped Pence.

Pence was not a good soldier.  He was too busy bucking for a promotion.  He did little to defend Trump.  Denying he or Trump made various statements, helped sweeten his night, but will sour the day.  He lied.  Every crazy statement Kaine attributed to Trump was true and verifiable.  Pence's hawkish foreign policy positions were inconsistent with the belligerent dove, at the top of the ticket.

Pence won the night on style points, Kaine will edge him tomorrow on truth and substance.  The result will be no change, which is good for Hillary.

Bottoms Up

Tonight Mike Pence has key superficial advantages.  He is better looking, has a more sonorous voice, and based on years as a talk show host, a smoother delivery.  But he is at a substantive disadvantage.  The top of the ticket, who he must defend, is a bottom feeder.

Kaine is likable, and has less ground to defend.  At the end of the night, I doubt the needle will move.

Helping Nicole Wallace

Nicole Wallace said, she is considering switching parties because the Democratic Convention has better music.  Of course she is right.  The RNC had elevator music, while we have elevating music.  We have Alicia Keyes, they had Scott Baio humming stage right.

But let's help Nicole with her conversion.  We had Meryl Streep, the GOP had the star of Duck Dynasty.  They had Melania crib from Michelle Obama, we had Michelle give a speech for the ages.  We have two presidents speaking, they had two presidents hiding.

Speaking of presidents, Bill told more endearing anecdotes and inspiring stories about our candidate than Melania and the entire Trump brood could manage in five prime time speeches.  The Trump children are good speakers, they just had a bad subject.

Finally Nicole, we have nominated Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine.  The GOP has a ticket with a narcissist on the top, and an extremist on the bottom.  Nicole, isn't it time you fight for the right to change parties?

About Face

Unlike Trump, Hillary has a wealth of choices for her running mate.   No one is turning her down.  Elizabeth Warren would double down on women, attract millennials and get under Donald's skin.  Labor Secretary Perez, or either of the Castro twins, would help with Hispanic turnout.  The Castro brothers are  remarkably gifted speakers.

For good reason, Tim Kaine is the favorite.  As the popular former governor and senator of Virginia, he would help Hillary in a battleground state.  His fluency in Spanish would make him an effective spokesperson on Univision and Telemundo.

But now that Trump has focused his campaign on security and law and order,  Hillary should consider a military pick.   Nothing says security like the military.  Hillary is already vetting retired Admiral Stavridis, former Allied Commander of Nato.  Rolling Stone Magazine notwithstanding, former General McCrystal might also be under consideration.

The pick would not be without risk.  Many progressives are uneasy about the military.  But Hillary's soft spot is the perception that she lacks integrity.  Nothing would harden that target more than the backing of a prestigious military partner.

Surrogate Supremacy

Clinton's starting surrogate lineup is President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and former president Bill Clinton.  She has a deep bench including Dr. Jill Biden, Chelsea Clinton,  Senator Tim Kaine, Julian Castro, Harold Ford Jr., and virtually all Democratic elected officials as well as most of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.

Trump's starting five are, former speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Chris Christie, Senator Sessions, Surgeon Ben Carson and Trump's daughter, Ivanka.  His two sons and his wife are on the bench.

For the following reasons Hillary will trounce Trump with her surrogate dream team.

MONEY HONEY

How many Trump surrogates can fill a cocktail party at $100 a pop?  Hillary's team can guarantee $1000 on up to the contribution maximum.  She will maintain her financial edge without spending all of her time fundraising.

QUEEN FOR A DAY

Trump triumphed in the primaries by dominating free media.  Hillary giving a speech with any of her top surrogates, is the lead story, burying Trump in the back pages.

HEAVIES IN THE HUSTINGS

Local media may be below the radar, but it radiates votes.  If Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren appear in a town of thirty thousand, they will be on the front page and dominate local media.  Local media is usually positive.

ECHO CHAMBER

Hillary's message will reverberate through the thousand voices of a united party.  Trump will often be greeted with the sounds of silence.