New Hampshire Winners and Losers

Winners

Amy Klobuchar

She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates.  But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing.  She rocked the Granite State.

Pete Buttigieg

Double the pleasure, double the fun.  After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates.  His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.

Losers

Elizabeth Warren

Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night.  She entered the primary with major advantages.  Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market.  So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known.  Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.

She has no obvious path forward.  She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire.  Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy.  Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party.  Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy.  To date that is a road less traveled.

Joe Bidden

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls.  Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.

As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment.  In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump.  But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward.  If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.

Bernie Sanders

Yes, he won.  Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa.  Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination.  But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar.  As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory.  In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent.  The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.

But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy.  Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women.  The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young.  Young  voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016.  Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.

The Dropouts

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire.  Neither did well enough to stay in the race.  I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration.  We need a futurist.