Post Mortem

 Kamala had an amazing take off from a short run way.  I will not criticize her campaign.  She moved to the center hoping to pickup Haley republicans and many independents.  She emphasized reproductive rights, a winning issue in 2022.  The threat to Democracy was key, and surprisingly was the number one issue in exit polls.  She won the money race, established a great ground game, and nimbly exploited errors by the opposition.  Her team recognized this was a change election, using slogans such as, "Not going back," "New way forward", and  "Turn the page".

Unfortunately, she was tied to the immensely successful, and decidedly unpopular, Biden administration. Three quarters of voters rated Trump most likely to bring needed change.   We are not alone.  Post pandemic rage has riled governing parties in all western democracies.

As children we were told that sticks and stones can break our bones, but words can never hurt us.  As adults we have learned that is untrue.  Trump's "they, them" ads appealed to more than anti-trans bigotry.  The message was that the left cares more about pronouns than the real problems of the working class.  It makes democrats seem out of touch.

When I call to make an appointment with a lawyer I do not need to know the preferred pronoun of the secretary or receptionist.  Looking at a play bill I want to know about the past performances of an actor on the big screen, on the increasingly larger, small screen, and on the stage.  Preferred pronoun is of no importance.  

LatinX is another problem.  Many latinos hate the term that white liberals have imposed on them.

In retrospect the only chance for Democrats was Biden announcing early that he was not seeking a second term.  Although angering black women, the heart and soul of the party, primaries might have produced a candidate other than Kamala.  If it was Josh Shapiro, we might have won.  He is decidedly popular in the key, keystone state.  His message is tailored to working class voters and he is male.  Shamefully many men and, quite a few women, are unwilling to vote for a woman for president.

So Wrong

 The champagne is back in the basement.  I will need the hard stuff over the next 4 years.  I could not have been more wrong.  Hard to believe the most racist candidate since George Wallace got a huge majority of Latino men, and a healthy chunk of black men.  The Bro strategy worked.  He won males 18-29 bt 11 points compared to Biden winning the group by 15.  He muddied the water enough on abortion that it was a less potent issue than expected.  Sisterhood did not prevail.  Whatever his flaws as a candidate, this time he had a professional team that hit issues that worked.  The anti-trans ads were shamefully potent.

Collective amnesia will take a while to explain.  People rate the chaotic Trump presidency at 48, and the successful Biden term at 41.

In retrospect Kamala needed to distance herself from Biden, a touchy task.  I still wonder why they never ran ads that Trump was held liable by a jury for sexual assault.  The appeal to suburban women failed.  Trump got marginally more Democratic voters than Kamala's share of Republicans.  She only won independents by 5%.  But maybe nothing mattered because American is unwilling to elect a Black woman.

If there are midterms, perhaps we can extract our revenge after people are reminded of how Trump governs.

For now I will be watching a lot of football.

Final Prediction

 Kamala Harris wins 51% to 47%, with 292 or more electoral votes.   All three forecast models, 538, Economist and Nate Silver, show a 50/50 election.  That does not belie my prediction.  Two weeks ago all three gave Trump a small edge.  Trend lines matter. 

Another poll is seminal.  The well respected Selzer poll shows Harris up 3 points in Iowa.  That is an outlier, and inconsistent with each campaign's internal polling, or the candidates would be in the state. But it shows a 7 point move since September in the same poll.  Trend lines matter. Iowa bodes well for blue wall states.

Early voting has an anomaly.  Polling cross tabs, which admittedly have a large margin of error, all show Kamala ahead with early voters.  But unlike 2020, virtually as many Republicans as Democrats have early voted.  Reconciliation means that either a good number of Republicans are voting for Kamala, and/or she is killing it with independents.

Typically women out vote men 52/48.  Early voting is running 53/44, with larger margins in the seven battleground states except for Nevada and Arizona.  Harris has a substantial polling lead with women, as Trump does with men.  Same day voting may revert to the mean, but if we end up with anything like 54/46, Harris will prevail.

On the less quantitative front, Trump's closing message is muddled with an island of garbage and a firing squad for Liz Cheney.  Trump has ceded middle ground and Harris has jumped in calling for common sense solutions and an end to divisive politics.

Finally, Republicans have always accused Democrats of throwing money at problems.  That is just what Trump has done with Musk throwing millions at an untested ground game.  Criticism is anecdotal, but wide spread.

In contrast, Harris has a wide net of field offices throughout the battle ground states.  Turn out and micro targeting are run by two  of the best, David Plouffe and Jen O'Malley Dillion.  Ground game should give Harris a plus one throughout the magnificent seven states.

Be still thy heart, and chill the champagne.

Battle of the Sexes

 Numbers don't lie, but their truth may be hidden.  Despite Trump's cat calls, in 2024 Republicans have doggedly pushed early voting.  The result has scared Democrats.  The Republican share of the 38 million votes cast to date is up, particularly in the sun belt.

Unnoticed is a brilliant ray of sunshine--roughly 10 per cent more women have early voted.  This year the gender gap is a chasm.  Trump's campaign is all wrestle mania and penis size, with a heavy sprinkling of anti-trans ads.  Kamala is pushing reproductive rights.

In an election between sisterhood and the bro vote, the early returns are promising.

Single Issue Voters

 Group speak fascinates me.  A couple years ago, receipts, meaning evidence, was solely a black term.  Now it permeates every political commentary.  Organically, post debate, journalists universally referred to Trump as taking the bait.  Indeed he did, with the resulting cat and dog story that has morphed into a million memes.

But the most important moment may have been the Ukraine discussion because it may have created another group of single issue voters.   Single issue voting is emotional.  For many on both sides, abortion is an emotional issue which subsumes all other considerations.  Gun regulation is another such issue.  Conversely, the economy/inflation is the most important issue, but not one that blocks out all other considerations.

As I covered in a prior blog, "Pole Dancing,"  Ukraine/Nato/Putin, can be an over powering topic.  Danger to the homeland is emotional.  As Kamala explained, weakening NATO, and conceding Ukraine to  Russia, is an imminent threat to Poland.  Polish Americans are a huge, up for grabs, voting block in Michigan, Wisconsin, and, most importantly, Pennsylvania.  

If Kamala can win upwards of 80% of the Polish American vote the blue wall will encapsulate her victory.

The Battle Beneath the Surface

A battle is going on in the Democratic Party.  Not to see who will be the nominee.  Biden will, with great reluctance, bow to the inevitable, and withdraw in favor of Kamala.  Nor is it for the VP slot.  I prefer Beshear to balance the ticket, but the bench is deep, filled with Midwestern governors.

The fight to come is at the staff level.  As Kamala advances her staff will wish to harness the power of their loyalty. Power is everything in Washington.  But Kamala must resist.

Her 2020 run was short lived.  Staffing may have played a role.  Biden beat Trump.  Make no mistake, Biden was no JFK or Obama on the trail.  He owes much to his managers.   The star pitcher may have come up lame, but that is no reason to switch managers.  Kamala must go with the tried and true and only integrate staff members who are willing to subordinate for the team.