Final Prediction

 Kamala Harris wins 51% to 47%, with 292 or more electoral votes.   All three forecast models, 538, Economist and Nate Silver, show a 50/50 election.  That does not belie my prediction.  Two weeks ago all three gave Trump a small edge.  Trend lines matter. 

Another poll is seminal.  The well respected Selzer poll shows Harris up 3 points in Iowa.  That is an outlier, and inconsistent with each campaign's internal polling, or the candidates would be in the state. But it shows a 7 point move since September in the same poll.  Trend lines matter. Iowa bodes well for blue wall states.

Early voting has an anomaly.  Polling cross tabs, which admittedly have a large margin of error, all show Kamala ahead with early voters.  But unlike 2020, virtually as many Republicans as Democrats have early voted.  Reconciliation means that either a good number of Republicans are voting for Kamala, and/or she is killing it with independents.

Typically women out vote men 52/48.  Early voting is running 53/44, with larger margins in the seven battleground states except for Nevada and Arizona.  Harris has a substantial polling lead with women, as Trump does with men.  Same day voting may revert to the mean, but if we end up with anything like 54/46, Harris will prevail.

On the less quantitative front, Trump's closing message is muddled with an island of garbage and a firing squad for Liz Cheney.  Trump has ceded middle ground and Harris has jumped in calling for common sense solutions and an end to divisive politics.

Finally, Republicans have always accused Democrats of throwing money at problems.  That is just what Trump has done with Musk throwing millions at an untested ground game.  Criticism is anecdotal, but wide spread.

In contrast, Harris has a wide net of field offices throughout the battle ground states.  Turn out and micro targeting are run by two  of the best, David Plouffe and Jen O'Malley Dillion.  Ground game should give Harris a plus one throughout the magnificent seven states.

Be still thy heart, and chill the champagne.

2028

Two numbers are important, 61, Liz Cheney's age, in 7 years, and 2028, the year she intends to be the Republican nominee for president.   As all the other presidential aspirants cruise down to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the ring, they have left the diamond lane wide open for Cheney.  Nikki Haley was the last candidate in the southern caravan.

Right now Trumpism looks like the favorite.  But handicapping is about searching for value, a risk reward scenario.  Cheney's truth telling is sincere, but is also the right political play.  The Trump lane is so full that Liz would be blocked off if she took that path.

Trump could topple.  Behind a popular president, Democrats could rally in 2022.  Trump, or his designee, could lose badly in 2024.  Trump could transition from his blue suit to an orange jump suit.  If Trump is discredited, Cheney could move forward toward the 2028 nomination while the other aspirants back track.

The Cheney gambit: sacrifice a house seat for the oval office.

Post Policy Party

 No matter how big the tent, each party has traditionally had an inner sanctum of revered principles.  For Republicans, these were limited government, reducing the national debt, strong defense,  and strident opposition to China and Russia as communist states.  But, after birthing an abomination, the GOP has postpartum regression.

A party toppling Liz Cheney from leadership has no core.  Cheney rests securely on the bedrock of conservatism, with high grades from the American Conservative Union, and the Heritage Action Group.

Cheney voted with Trump 92% of the time, her likely successor, Elise Stefanik, sided with him on only 77% of her votes.  But Elise is unctuous in her praise of the former president, Cheney, not so much.

The lack of policy is echoed by the GOP Senate Leader.  Mitch McConnell told reporters that, "one hundred per cent of my focus is on stopping this new administration."  Blind, unyielding opposition is not a system of beliefs.  Republicans offer no competing vision.  

America deserves better.

The Lesson of Liz

Only a few Republicans have the courage or political impunity to cross Trump.  The vast majority of the party falls into two camps, those who voraciously devour every lie he places on their plate, and those who discretely spit it out into their napkins.

The groups are represented by three house votes.  Even after the January 6th insurrection 140 Republicans in Congress publicly voted to overturn the free and fair election.   Only a tenacious ten voted in favor of impeachment.  Those ten have paid a price.  They have received death threats, been censured by their state parties and promised primary challenges.

For the temerity of her vote, Liz Cheney faced a challenge to her leadership position in the Republican Caucus.  Fortunately for her, the vote was by secret ballot.  With their anonymity assured, the 140 insurrection appeasers dwindled to a mere 61 Cheney removers.

The lesson is clear.  Republicans hide in the light, but, like roaches, scuttle around freely in the dark.  Profiles in courage was a book about another era.  Forced to choose, Republicans choose career over conscience.  The impeachment trial must end with a secret ballot.

As if living in a bygone era, law professors object, extolling the importance of transparency and fearing a dangerous precedent.  But, we do not live in a proud time, we live in a time of Proud Boys.  Presidential impeachment trials are too rare, only three, and no convictions, to generate precedent.

A coup attempt without consequences, is a far greater threat to the republic, than allowing Republican Senators a shroud of secrecy..