Proximity to power is power. Power is intoxicating. The Biden campaign staff is vested in the continuity of his candidacy. Time for divestiture.
In the most subtle way possible Kamala must let the upper echelon know that she intends to keep the team together if Joe exits the stage. Staff resistance will dissipate, easing the path for the transition. Biden will be applauded as a selfless hero if he stands down now. If he leaves on January 20th, 2025, as a failed candidate, not so much.
A battle is going on in the Democratic Party. Not to see who will be the nominee. Biden will, with great reluctance, bow to the inevitable, and withdraw in favor of Kamala. Nor is it for the VP slot. I prefer Beshear to balance the ticket, but the bench is deep, filled with Midwestern governors.
The fight to come is at the staff level. As Kamala advances her staff will wish to harness the power of their loyalty. Power is everything in Washington. But Kamala must resist.
Her 2020 run was short lived. Staffing may have played a role. Biden beat Trump. Make no mistake, Biden was no JFK or Obama on the trail. He owes much to his managers. The star pitcher may have come up lame, but that is no reason to switch managers. Kamala must go with the tried and true and only integrate staff members who are willing to subordinate for the team.
Quoting Lord Acton, "Absolute power corrupts absolutely." Donald Trump already had a head start. Even his ardent supporters would admit he is transactional, and perhaps in different words, greedy.
The Supreme Court's new presidential immunity doctrine removes the guard rails from a future Trump presidency. He has a new project in Saudi Arabia. Surely the Saudi's will be granted most favored nation status.
What is it worth to Putin for the United States to withdraw support from Ukraine, or better yet from Nato entirely? That would be the quid, with a delayed quo after Trump's term ends.
America will be standing on the corner, scantily clad, offering her wares for sale. Morality must prevail. Stifle your qualms. The Supreme Court has raised the stakes. You must bet on Biden.
Michelle, a nation turns its lonely eyes to you. Questions plague the party after Biden's painful debate. Unfortunately, given your determination never to run for public office, you are the only answer.
Biden, cannot, and should not, withdraw without a plausible alternative. Kamala is the logical choice, but her low poll numbers defy that logic. Other fine alternatives such as Whitmer, Shapiro, and Beshear, would alienate Black women, the most loyal foundation of the party. Also they are untested on the National stage, and not known beyond the cognoscenti.
You check all the boxes, and are most likely to box out Trump from rebounding to the White House. The threat to Democracy warrants the extreme sacrifice.
Choose a strong VP. Consider Beshear, but the choice is yours. Placate the bypassed Kamala with an offer of Secretary of State, and the promise to serve only one term.
For the first time this election cycle, polls show Biden pedaling ahead of Trump. The reasons are two fold. First is the State of the Union address. The speech reassured Democrats and raised money, but did not immediately inflate Biden's poll numbers.
The collateral impact of the address was to change the conversation. Republicans stepped on their own message. The GOP, with remarkable success, has pounded on Biden's age. But in response to the speech, Republicans cited Biden as being angry, talking too fast, shouting, and even Trump claiming Biden ingested cocaine. Hardly, the description of a doddering old man. The media has followed suit. References to Biden's age have declined, and late night comedians have moved on.
The second reason is advertising. Political advertising is often mere background noise. Two chords transform it into a beat the public will dance to. First, if it is unopposed. Biden is buying digital and other media in key markets, while the less funded Trump campaign is not. More importantly, the Biden campaign's ads funnel and amplify free media.
Abortion is in the news. The Alabama decision on IVF and the more recent barbaric abortion decision in Arizona have the public focused. The Biden campaign has nimbly responded with impactful abortion ads.
The election is a long way off, but finally the Biden campaign has pushed the on button.
Time for the Biden campaign to bust a move. Polish Americans make up nearly 8 percent of the population in Michigan and Wisconsin, two key swing states. The number is a little over 5 per cent in Pennsylvania. Up the ante with transplants from other eastern European NATO countries, and you have a sizable voting block.
Polish Americans, and their eastern European counterparts, are swing voters with nearly equal registration between Democrats, Republicans and independents. Time to swing them in one direction.
All too often Trump's most outrageous comments play to his base, infuriate liberals, but barely move the needle with those in the middle. Trump's invitation for Putin to invade NATO countries, and his lack of support for Ukraine, should be different.
Biden must seize the moment, advertising in the Polish Monthly, and every other demographically desirable media source. Go east, not so young man, go east.
The President would be an awful contestant on Jeopardy. Instant recall and exact phrasing are not his strengths. But presidents do not play foreign or domestic policy for 200. They play it for real.
That requires deliberation, not flash card memory. A president takes advice from a team of experts, cabinet level on down, and tempers it with his wisdom and experience into steely policy.
Biden has choosen advisers based on ability and experience, Trump favors loyalty. Biden has background as a Senator and a Vice President before winning the Presidency. Trump was a game show host, and ran a fraudulent family real estate business with 500 million in seed money from his father.
We somehow survived Trump's chaotic first term. Do the American people really want to place the country in double jeopardy?
It is often said that every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a president. So too prosecutors see the reflection of a judge, even the judicial robes of a Supreme Court justice. Certainly Special Counsel, Robert Hur has the credentials to make history as the first Asian American to so ascend.
He clerked for late U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist. Hur is a graduate of Stanford Law School, where he was editor of the law review, and was an undergraduate at Harvard College. Hur served as top aide to then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein before his appointment as the U.S.attorney in Maryland by, then president, Trump. He is currently a partner with a prestigious, and politically connected, law firm.
As Special Counsel investigating the retention of documents by President Biden, Hur had a peek at an obstacle to his blind ambition. The case against the President is weak and unwinnable. But dismissing the case would anger the MAGA base of the Republican Party. As a Republican, Hur's judicial goal rests in the hands of a future Republican president.
The ugly solution was to vindicate Biden, but issue a politically damaging report, replete with gratuitous insults and attacks. Splitting the baby may be politically wise, but it demonstrates that Hur lacks the integrity and temperament to serve on the highest court.
For months Republicans refused to authorize further aid to Ukraine without restrictions placed on immigration at our southern border. The two issues are completely unrelated but, Ukraine is so important that the administration capitulated. After months of legislative time, a bipartisan group of Senators crafted strict border controls. The administration signaled a willingness to sign such a bill over the objections of the progressive wing of the Democratic party.
Aid to Ukraine is one of the best deals in diplomatic history. Without risking a single American life, Russian aggression is stymied. A possible confrontation between NATO and Russia, with nuclear implications, is averted. Equally important, China learns that we stand behind our allies, discouraging the conquest of Taiwan.
Republicans, at the direction of the former president, refused to declare victory. Confronted with a bill that met their demands, they said, "Just kidding." Lucy may be laughing, but the American people have fallen on their backs.
Trump will have a claustrophobic crawl to November. He has a high floor and a low ceiling. His base is fervent, but his negatives are high and likely to grow. Criminal convictions loom on the horizon. Soon attack ads will remind suburban women that he was held liable for sexual assault.
Biden can stand tall. His floor is now in the mid 30s but his ceiling is far above. Recognition that the economy is improving is slowly seeping in, and probable interest rate cuts will increase the flow. Democrats, and Democrat leaning independents, have yet to come home, but Biden is still within a few points of Trump. Fear of Trump, the improving economy and outrage over abortion will propel Joe to an easy victory.
Biden will win by 10 Million Votes with 306+ Electoral Votes. Take it to the bank.
Biden's Middle East policy has been so quietly sound, that it has been loudly condemned. We live in a noisy world. Even the most intimate details are shouted on social media. Virtue signaling is thought to be virtue. Many MAGA Republicans favor theatrics over governance.
Unsurprisingly, millennials are unaware that diplomacy is conducted with an indoor voice. The population of Israel is less than 10 million. Taking into account the difference in population, the Hamas slaughter of civilians was as if we lost 35000 during 9/11. After our terrorist related loses we fought an ill considered war against the wrong country.
So a strong reaction by Israel is understandable, and as an ally we had to offer support. But that support is not unqualified. Biden has known Netanyahu for decades. Publicly proclaiming the necessity of a cease fire, would have the opposite of the desired impact. Do not wave red in front of a bull.
Behind the scenes the administration has sought to moderate Israel's efforts, and to maximize humanitarian aid to Palestinians. Biden has also largely kept Hezbollah out of the conflict, and stunted Iranian intervention.
Can someone speak up for a job well done?
Biden's age is the pounding refrain from the GOP, amplified by late night comedians. Conversely, the only slightly younger Trump, plays alpha male. Biden cannot get younger, but he can change the tune. Perception is everything.
After Trump wraps up the nomination, Biden should challenge him to a 3 round charity fight. In his youth Joe has bloodied a few opponents, Donald, not so much.
Biden wins if, as is a near certainty, Trump ducks the fight. If Donald agrees, the weigh in will be a winner for Biden. Joe may not have the broad chest of his youth, but in boxing trunks, the tale of the tape will not be kind for Trump.
If Biden wins the fight the presidency is his. Age would cease to be an issue and Trump would be beta, at best.
President Biden trails Trump in 5 of the key six battleground states in the recent New York Times/ Siena Poll. Democrats are moistening their mattress pads. The Biden strategy of only running positive ads against a vulnerable opponent increases the flow.
Understandably, Biden wants to take credit for record job growth. With the narrowest of legislative margins in the House and Senate he passed the bipartisan infrastructure bill and the first gun reform in 30 years. His inflation reduction act combats climate change and prescription drug prices.
But although inflation is moderating, and is slightly lower than that in France, Canada and Germany, Biden is crushed by the crazy 8s. Americans are paying 8 dollars for a pound of bacon or a Big Mac, and the high interest rate inflation cure, saddles home buyers with an 8 per cent mortgage.
But if ever there was a dope, ready to be roped, it is the former president. That is the plan. Biden does not want to fire until he sees the whites of his thighs. Biden wants no obstacles to Trump's nomination.
As early as the GOP convention the attacks will be withering. Trump's criminal difficulties provide fodder, but the true vulnerability is that he was held liable for sexual assault. More women vote than men. The ads will be devastating. Once this is a choice election, Trump will be toasted, dry.
The squeaky wheel gets the grease. But Democrats have 133 wheels with only 4 actually grounded: the economy, healthcare, education and crime. Foreign policy is the spare tire.
There is no doubt that the transgender community will fare better with Democrats in power. But every moment spent discussing transgender rights rather than the big 4, makes that power less likely. To make maters worse Democrats insult the majority of the population by propagating terms from academia.
In academic discussions and treatises it might be useful to have a term to distinguish the 99% that identify as the gender they were born, from the 1% that do not. In general parlance, however, call me by my name. Call me CIS, and I am unlikely to hear anything else you have to say.
Worse yet is the term LatinX. Hispanics, particularly older hispanics, resent the term. How paternalistic to tell people how they should identify themselves. As a socially conservative group, Hispanics are not swayed by more attention to transgender rights than healthcare and inflation.
Every Democratic interest group clammers for the President's undivided attention, and criticizes him for failing to achieve the impossible. Contrast that with loyalty given to a past Republican president who is devoid of humanity and patriotism. With friends like these, Biden is a soft touch for enemy incoming.
The Republican party is deplorable for placing power before principle. But the Democrat interest groups forget that without properly inflated power, principles are punctured.
