For the first time this election cycle, polls show Biden pedaling ahead of Trump. The reasons are two fold. First is the State of the Union address. The speech reassured Democrats and raised money, but did not immediately inflate Biden's poll numbers.
The collateral impact of the address was to change the conversation. Republicans stepped on their own message. The GOP, with remarkable success, has pounded on Biden's age. But in response to the speech, Republicans cited Biden as being angry, talking too fast, shouting, and even Trump claiming Biden ingested cocaine. Hardly, the description of a doddering old man. The media has followed suit. References to Biden's age have declined, and late night comedians have moved on.
The second reason is advertising. Political advertising is often mere background noise. Two chords transform it into a beat the public will dance to. First, if it is unopposed. Biden is buying digital and other media in key markets, while the less funded Trump campaign is not. More importantly, the Biden campaign's ads funnel and amplify free media.
Abortion is in the news. The Alabama decision on IVF and the more recent barbaric abortion decision in Arizona have the public focused. The Biden campaign has nimbly responded with impactful abortion ads.
The election is a long way off, but finally the Biden campaign has pushed the on button.
I try to resist the lure of "polls." (Not sure I'm very successful.) Seems that they either end up making me worry or lull me into believing it's not so bad for Dems. I really want your observations to be right as rain, but I'm still wary. jc
ReplyDeleteAs you know, polls are a mere snapshot in time. The key is not the absolute numbers, but the trend line. For instance the last polls in 2016 had Hillary in the lead, but the trend line showed Trump coming up. Right now the trend line for Biden is good, but 8 months is an eternity. Much can happen.
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