Village People

Oaxaca, and the surrounding villages, has it all.  Dine on a world class cuisine centered around the 7 moles, but including such oddities as grasshoppers.  See the world's largest living thing, by volume and weight.  No, it is not me after feasting on Oaxacan food.

Imbibe smoky mescal.  Enjoy colonial architecture and ancient ruins.  Let your shopping gene out of the bottle.  Oaxaca is surrounded by villages devoted to a single craft.  The wares come together in village markets.  Visit the workshops of makers, of fanciful wooden creatures known as alebrijes.  As an added plus, the city is filled with charming B&Bs.

If it is Sunday it must be Tlacolula, home of a wonderful Sunday market.  To combine efficiency with economy, hire a driver one way so that you can stop at Santa Maria Del Tule, home of the huge Cypress tree.

This may be the largest living thing.

Next have your driver drop you off at the market in Tlacolula.  The bus (collectivo) back to Oaxaca takes about 40 minutes.

The market sells everything, with an emphasis on textiles.

As Roslyn's eyes drew her to handwoven wool purses, my nose was leading me to food, a staple in all Mexican markets.

Roslyn's guilty pleasure was chicharrones.  I had two heaping bowls of barbacoa in broth.  I have no guilt.  The tough competition for knowledgable local palettes, resulted in some of the best barbacoa that I have ever devoured.

Politics of Subtraction

Hard to believe, but not that long ago Republicans placed gay marriage initiatives on the ballot to win elections,  by maximizing conservative turnout.  What was once a wedge issue is now a wedgie for the GOP.  But the party cannot put the boxers back in the box.

 Charlotte, the home to Bank of America, Lowe's, and other major corporations, recently passed an ordinance banning discrimination against the LGBT community.  The Republican controlled state legislature not only reacted, but did so in a hastily convened emergency session.  They passed, and the governor immediately signed, a bill prohibiting cities from passing such anti-discrimination legislation.

That the few remaining Log Cabin Republicans put up for sale signs may not be costly to the party.  The LGBT community makes up roughly, four percent of the population, and the GOP segment is a fraction of that.  But the loss of Wall Street, moderates and millennials is priceless.

This is but one small example of the politics of subtraction.  As compassionate conservatism has given way to anti-immigrant hysteria,  Hispanic Democratic majorities have grown to landslides.  Previously Republican leaning Asian Americans and Muslims, have become stand up Democrats.   The GOP can forget about Michigan with its large Muslim population.

Trump not only exacerbates this trend with minorities,  but kills the GOP chances with the majority.  Women are about 52 percent of the electorate.  Trump's misogynistic remarks give Hillary a 27% percentage advantage with women in a general election matchup.

GOP Is Clueless

Terrorists win when they control the agenda, causing overreactions.  The Republican presidential candidates universally proclaimed that Obama should have immediately returned to the US from Cuba, because of the bombings in Brussels.

A president must multitask.  Obama conferred with world leaders, provided assistance and green lighted a plan to take down the second in  command of ISIS while still on his trip.  But, some things require personal attention.  Attempting to put Cuba on a gradual road to a more open society took a personal touch, including enjoying baseball, the national obsession of the country.

The visit to Argentina was also of historic import.  The second largest country in South America has replaced a government aligned with Hugo Chavez, with an administration open to the West.  Forging a bond with the new president of Argentina, is one of the most positive developments in our relationship with Latin America in the past decade.  If a tango can reshape South America, than it is the dance of destiny.

Meanwhile, the top GOP candidates are busy attacking each other's dance partners.   

Belting Trump

The umpires of political correctness approve of positive ads extolling the experience and virtues of a candidate.  Issue contrast ads (she was for NAFTA I was against it) are also fair.  All other spots are considered at or below the belt line.

But Trump is a suspenders guy.  His success suspends disbelief.  Since his campaign is a cult of personality, personal attacks are proper.  His policy positions are too thin to hold up to scrutiny.

Not So Super Sanders

Sanders is beloved as a straight shooter, even if his shots veer far left of center.  Bewailing super delegates as anti-democratic seemed a principled stand, even if incidentally, Hillary has 20 times more super delegates than Bernie.

But now that Hillary has an insurmountable lead in democratically won delegates, Senator Sanders newly announced plan is to win by convincing super delegates to ignore that lead, and side with him.  Oh hypocrisy, Bernie be thy name.  We will need to reserve the pedestal for someone else.

The Syllable Diet

Republicans are eating their words.  Although not losing weight, they are losing gravitas, over Justice Garland.  Orrin Hatch double dared Obama to appoint Judge Garland.  "[Obama] could easily name Merrick Garland, who is a fine man."  But the Hatch is closed to even meeting with Merrick.

The party of strict construction of the Constitution is now regurgitating new words into the sacred document.  Neither the President's duty to appoint justices, nor the Senate's duty of advice and consent expire in the last year of a presidency.  But Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell says he will neither allow hearings nor a vote on the Garland nomination.  His rationale is that the people should be allowed to decide.

If Hillary wins, and perhaps the Democrats take the Senate, will Republicans also eat those words by filibustering her nominee for the Supreme Court?

The Gold Plated Fool

A well traveled maxim is that,  "A lawyer who represents himself has a fool for a client."  Multiply that a thousand fold for a presidential candidate who, like Trump, declares he is his own foreign policy advisor.

Presidential candidates retain experts to broaden their knowledge and to develop policy proposals.  Particularly for foreign policy, the press analyzes the experts chosen for insight into the predilections of the candidate.  For instance Jeb and Marco retained neocons, indicating an interventionist foreign policy.

Trump, until recently, has deflected questions about his advisors, or named people he had seen on Sunday talk shows.  Finally the curtain has been lifted.  Trump is the Wizard of Oz.  Some combination of ego and cheapness, explains his decision to fly blind though the complex currents of foreign affairs.  Perhaps, he believes his own foreign affairs with attractive immigrants is sufficient.

The hope that the political neophyte would rely on seasoned veterans has been shattered.  No wonder, as Political Wire blogger Taegan Goddard reports,  "The Economist Intelligence Unit concludes that a Donald Trump presidency poses a top-10 risk event that could disrupt the world economy, lead to political chaos in the United States and heighten security risks for the United States."

Turn off the Lights

The sand is shifting beneath Senator Sanders' feet.  Hillary hit the five spot on March 15, winning enough delegates to climb the mountain top.   As a message candidate Bernie succeeded beyond his wildest dreams, unless he dreamed of being president.

The other winner is the Democratic Party.  Although Bernie has the funds to stay in the race, the camera lights are turned off, his free media party is over.  As the GOP tumbles to either the triumph of Trump or a contested convention, Hillary can dress up her campaign for success in  the fall.

Bucks for the Buckeye

Although he gets call backs,  Kasich is the extra, with the other three candidates getting the lines.  His endorsers are ex-senators, ex-governors, and the ex-speaker.  When he dials for dollars, he gets excuses.  But his Rodney Dangerfield days may soon be over.  If as expected, Rubio loses Florida, and he wins Ohio, Kasich will get some respect.

More important than the soon to come backing of Republican blue bloods, will be the greenbacks.   Money may finally meet message.  With ample air time, his adult in the room, compassionate conservative theme may resonate in the moderate states coming up on the calendar.

The Split

To win in the fall, Democrats want a tough split and a strike on semi-super Tuesday.  We want the GOP counting pins until the convention with, the weakest candidate, Trump, in the lead.  For that to happen we need a split in the winner take all states of Ohio and Florida.  If as is now likely, Kasich wins Ohio, but Rubio loses Florida, Trump will go to Cleveland with the most delegates but not the 1237 needed to clinch.

The benefits are many.  GOP resources will be depleted, rancor will rise, and Republicans will be unable to effectively attack the Democratic candidate until July.  Even if the party elite blocks Trump on a second or third ballot, Democrats win.  Denying Trump, if he has the most delegates, would fracture the party.  As a side benefit,  Marco Rubio, the last player on the neocon team will throw a gutter ball.  That moldy ideology may be left without a home in either party.

On our side we want the opposite.  Hillary must knock down all the pins.  Illinois, Ohio and Missouri are wobbling.  If she can take all five states, the general election will start on March 16.  Bernie will have the resources to continue, but Hillary will only compete in purple states to develop infrastructure, and states like California and New York, in which campaigning can combine with fund raising.  So put on your bowling shoes, order a beer, and root for a split and a strike.

Humility

If you must, there are many ways to parade moral superiority.  You can subsist on a diet of water and sprouts, or not own a television, or if you do, only watch PBS.  On a more serious and altruistic note, any number of worthy organizations need your time or money.  But the one place for humility, is the voting booth.

Nader supporters gave us the gore of war, instead of Gore in the White House.  The price of progressive purity was thousands dead or injured, and a depleted treasury with no funds to expand social programs.

Compared to Donald Trump, George W was the reincarnation of Abraham Lincoln.  I have taken the pledge, at #PledgeDem.  If Hillary falters, I will wholeheartedly support Senator Sanders.  You don't have to feel the Bern, to fear the fire on the other side of the aisle.  If Hillary wins I hope Bernie supporters will bring their passion to our campaign.

Who Won the GOP Miami Debate?

The clear winner was Rubio.  As a progressive, I can only be thankful that his campaign has been so mismanaged that it is too little, too late.  He was articulate, persuasive and personable.

Trump was running out the clock looking forward to another good night on Tuesday.  He was restrained and modulated, as close as he can get to presidential.  By emerging unscathed, he also won.  He made the big news of the night.  As all of us who follow him knew, he will not self finance his general election campaign.  He said that although he committed to  funding his primary campaign, he may accept help from major donors in the general election.

Kasich who won the last two debates by smoothly sailing through choppy waters, was indistinguishable in a sea of civility.  Cruz, always in unctuous prosecutorial mode, is wearing thin.

This was the most substantive Republican debate.  Ratings will no doubt plummet.

The Big Whiff

For we poor souls that feel obligated to watch every debate,  it is a bit like watching a NASCAR race.  We see the candidates circling the same track over and over, and are ashamed to admit we are waiting for the big crash.

Before covering the crack up, let's discuss the circles.  Conditions were favorable for Bernie.  He was more relaxed after winning Michigan.  The questions came from the left which is his wheelhouse, with almost no foreign policy questions, which is hers.  She was a bit wooden at times but had a wonderful empathetic moment talking to a Guatemalan woman with 5 children whose husband had been deported.   She of course exhibited in depth policy understanding,   Bernie recited his economic and campaign reform message with a bit of a lilt.  On balance a tiny edge to Bernie.

But then Bernie went into the wall.  Univision showed a clip from 1985 in which he praised Castro.  To mix metaphors,  the question started out to be a nasty curve, but hung over the plate.  "How does your socialism differ from that of Cuba..."  The answer should have been easy.  First he should explain that he is a democratic socialist,  which means he values the democratic principles of free speech and free and fair elections.  Then for the socialism part he should pivot to his economic message of expanding and protecting medicare and social security while ending the rigged economy that cheats the middle class.

Instead, he expounded on his opposition to the Monroe doctrine.  If he were to be the nominee, expect to see this clip on a constant loop.  For now,  just expect a dramatic loss in the Florida Primary.

Opposites Attract

Polar opposites are pulling from the same pool of voters.  Many voters eschew the establishment,  deciding between Senator Sanders and The Donald.

The two candidates are fire and water.  One is a european style socialist, the other a billionaire capitalist.  Bernie is committed to public service.  Trump serves his own gold plated whims.  Bernie talks policy, while the ego driven Trump recites poll numbers as if they were boffo reviews.  Trump is an ultra nationalist, who has yet to find a minority that he will not degrade.   Bernie is poly cultural.

But if you want to bring the house down, you may not care whether by conflagration or flood.  Both promise a political revolution.  Both promise to fix a rigged system.  Neither is receiving financial support from the business or political elite.  Both are against foreign entanglements and free trade.  Although in the case of Trump beauty must be in eye of the supporter, both are regarded as telling it like it is.

Still the choice should be simple.  Bernie may be a true believer, but Trump truly only believes in himself.  If voters cannot pull the lever for Hillary, the best qualified candidate, they should at least select the guy with the best intentions.

Running Out the Clock

The debate was custom cut for Bernie--no foreign policy questions, and a focus on an economically distressed city and state.  Indeed, the Senator did score some points on trade agreements and was the pugnacious challenger throughout.  But Hillary won by not losing.

She already has a sizable delegate lead which, if current polls hold, will be impregnable by the end, if not the middle of this month.  So her goal was a mistake free performance, which neither angered the Bernie supporters nor scared the centrists that she would need in the fall.  Mission accomplished.

While cautious on some answers such as limitations on fracking, she avoided the temptation to go into the cursed prevent defense.  She turned the tables on the bailout vote, reminding the auto company dependent voters in the Midwest, that the bill financed the auto company bailout.  She scored the double whammy by tying the vote to her support for Obama.  She acceded to the recommendation of the then president elect, Bernie opposed him.

Republican candidates were the biggest losers.  Their juvenile antics suffered badly in comparison to this adult discussion focused on the needs of the American people.

Uneasy Lies the Crown

As soon as the establishment kisses the ring, the would be king is toppled.  There will not be a Bush III or a Marco I.  But for Jeb's infamy,  Rubio would be a record setting failure.  Notwithstanding unlimited endorsements and resources, Rubio was Clark Kent on Super Tuesday and Semi-Super Saturday.

With phone booths a rarity, he is unlikely to change in to super Marco in time for Florida.  Exit Rubio, stage right.

Trump Support Softening?

Hard numbers are in.  For the first time since Iowa Trump won less delegates than Cruz.  He underperformed his beloved polls.  The trend line is clear.  Trump does poorly in caucus states because of a limp ground game and underwhelms in primaries in which only Republicans may vote.

Ironically the poll dancer has no pollster.  A sophisticated poll driven campaign, with a ground game, would have mounted a registration drive in  closed primary states.  Trump would have garnered GOP brownie points while improving his chances.

The unanswered question is whether support for Trump is going down.  The answer may come Tuesday in Michigan.  Will the unseemly bromance between this billionaire and blue collar workers cool down?  We may discover that Trump's crude reference to his genitalia was one tall tale too many.

Messing with Texas

Each election cycle Democrats gaze longingly at Texas, with her high percentage of eligible hispanic voters, than decide she is out of their league.  Not just her large population, but her great size, make Texas an expensive date.

Nearly 28% of eligible Texas voters are latino, a higher percentage than in California.
Because of better out reach and voter suppression by Texas Republicans, than their impotent California counterparts, voting results are very different.  Fewer Texas hispanics register or vote, and those who do favor Democrats by a smaller margin.  Fear of failure is self fulfilling.  Democrats have under funded Texas, surrendering before the first vote is cast.

Often forgotten are Texas blacks who make up nearly 12% of the Texas voting age population.  After also subtracting the 6% "other," caucasians make up only 54% of eligible voters.

Trump may embolden Democrats to puff up their chest and chat up Texas.  His intemperate remarks could change everything.  Hillary should go all in by placing either of the very talented Texas based Castro brothers on her ticket, and doing it early.

Trump will not spend money to block pre-convention efforts to register and persuade blacks and hispanics.   Even if the effort fails, it may succeed.  Republicans will need to spend general election money to protect usually safe turf.  Democrats may pick up a few much needed House seats.

Quantity vs. Quality

Desperate to regain the White House,  Republicans are setting records for primary turnout, but the Democrats have higher quality voters.   Only 50% of GOP primary voters say they would be satisfied with Trump as their nominee.  Rubio and Cruz do only slightly better.  The GOP will have a party unity problem.  The candidate will need to bring the coalition together before, if ever, pivoting to the center.

With a more content electorate, Democratic turnout is down 50% from 2008.  But, over 70% of Democratic primary voters would be happy to have Hillary as their nominee, with Bernie only slightly behind.  Party unity will be easy, turnout not so much.  The answer for both problems is the same--demonize the opposition.

It may be hard to hit Trump's overly small hands, but his big mouth is an excellent target.  The Donald has said something to offend and motivate every element of the Obama coalition

The conservative core of the Republican party hates Hillary.  With reluctance and disdain, they will pull the lever for Trump even if they wash their hands afterwards.

Who Won the Fox GOP Debate?

Now that the show is in reruns, pundits question whether voters will experience Trump fatigue.  To date the answer is no.  But Donald may be falling victim to the syndrome.  After assuring us that he was well endowed, he seemed bored with the rest of his own responses.

Kasich had a very good night.  He washed his hands while others were in a pissing contest.  Although a solid insult to both,  he is the Republican Hillary.  Like Hillary he passionately believes in the principles of his party, but also like Hillary, he is more of a problem solver than an ideologue.   As usual online polls have Trump as the winner, but for the first time Kasich is second.  He will get a boost.

Rubio and Cruz were as expected.  Cruz is a solicitor with a conservative core, and Marco is the young optimistic neocon.  Neither made a mistake.  Neither advanced their cause.

By not appearing, Dr. Ben had his best debate.

Unconventional

The party establishment invariably wants to close the door on an open convention.   With early success, the presumptive nominee can reposition, refocus and refinance for the fall.  The convention is a four day informercial for the nominee and a bonding for the party factions.

By contrast a contested convention leaves the eventual nominee sullied, exhausted and financially and politically ill prepared for the general election.  Factional fissures expand and emotions erupt, goaded by enraptured media.  That a brokered convention is the last, best hope of the GOP establishment, tells you all you need to know about the state of the Republican party.

Return to Tommy Town

Brave Journey is off to a spectacular start as a broodmare.  Her first foal,  Bully Pulpit, as a two year old won two races at Del Mar and is stakes placed on dirt and turf.  Her second foal fetched a good price in the select yearling sale.

We traveled to Tommy Town in Santa Ynez to see our newest foal,  a filly out of Decarchy that we named Oligarchy.  It was a picture perfect day.

At least to our eyes, the ten day old filly was just as pretty.

We also saw our yearling, Campaigner.  We nicknamed him swoosh because of his Nike like blaze.

He has grown considerably since our last visit.

His conformation is sound.  A horse's power comes from behind.  Our boy has a big butt.

From Santa Ynez we made our usual trek east to Melville and Babcock wineries for tastings.

Trump Begins to Beg

Trump is the guy at a restaurant desperate for someone else at the table to pick up the check.  A presidential race costs upwards of a billion dollars even if you already have a ground game in place as Hillary does.  Trump does not.

Best estimates are that Trump has three hundred to four hundred million in liquid assets.  Trump is too cheap to spend much of that.  He has loaned about ten million to his campaign, and paid about 3 million back to himself for use of his plane, hotel space and banquet halls.

He needs the Republican party to fund his ground game.   To get that he has started to kiss ass.  On his website he has now posted a replacement for Obamacare, virtually identical to that of Paul Ryan, the titular head of the party.  As recently as the last debate his full plan was to make insurance companies compete on a national basis.

The groveling has only begun.  He may keep his pledge, and not have a SuperPac directly linked to his campaign, but he will look to Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and others to fund ads attacking Hillary.  Trump is both the prince and the pauper.

Trump Disrespects Supporters

Trump may love the poorly educated, but they were kept out of his victory speech/press conference at the ballroom of his Mar-A-Lago resort.  Peons are not allowed at his prestigious boutique property.

More importantly,  he had time in his speech to do an infomercial for his company, but not to thank the volunteers who devoted their time to his campaign.   He only obtusely thanked those who voted for him.

While there may not be an "I' in team, with Trump there certainly is one in candidate.

Trump's Self-Funding Myth

Trump is cheating his predominately lower income supporters.  Like every candidate Trump has a big donate button on the front page of his website.  His supporters contribute in support of Trump's self-funded campaign.

But Trump is not self-funding, he is self financing.  He is loaning money to his campaign.  At the end he can use any money contributed by supporters to repay the loan.  In addition he is profiting from the campaign.  To date the campaign has paid 2.2 million to a Trump subsidiary for the use of his plane.

Trump is still a penny pinching billionaire.