Hard numbers are in. For the first time since Iowa Trump won less delegates than Cruz. He underperformed his beloved polls. The trend line is clear. Trump does poorly in caucus states because of a limp ground game and underwhelms in primaries in which only Republicans may vote.
Ironically the poll dancer has no pollster. A sophisticated poll driven campaign, with a ground game, would have mounted a registration drive in closed primary states. Trump would have garnered GOP brownie points while improving his chances.
The unanswered question is whether support for Trump is going down. The answer may come Tuesday in Michigan. Will the unseemly bromance between this billionaire and blue collar workers cool down? We may discover that Trump's crude reference to his genitalia was one tall tale too many.
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ReplyDeleteA new NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll finds Donald Trump is leading the GOP presidential field nationally with 30%, followed closely by Ted Cruz at 27%, John Kasich at 22% and Marco Rubio at 20%.
ReplyDeleteAlso interesting is that Trump trails his rivals in hypothetical one-on-one match-ups: Cruz and Kasich best Trump by an identical 17 points, 57% to 40%, while Rubio beats Trump by 13 points, 56% to 43%.
Reported by Political Wire this supports our supposition that Trump is weakening.