Swiftboating Romney (redux)

When the Bain ads first aired many prominent Democrats doubted the strategy.  Back in July the post below discussed the value of that line of attack, and particularly the strength of the so called "Coffin ad."  Some now credit that ad for locking up Ohio.

Tuesday, July 3, 2012

Swiftboating Romney

The subject of the negative advertising against Senator Kerry was more important than failure to fact check.  Attacking an opponent's weakness wounds,  undercutting his strength kills.

Romney could not win the Republican nomination running on his record as governor.  Instead he proclaimed,  that as a businessman he understands the economy and knows how to create jobs.  As an aside, a Romney victory might not only be depressing for me, but also for the country as a whole.  The last businessman/president was Herbert Hoover.

The Bain Capital ads may have generated some angst in D.C. and New York, but they have lubricated the rust belt.  Polls now show that a majority in the battleground states regard Romney's business tenure as a negative.  The ads peel away voters from Romney's core constituency, non-college educated white males.  The ads have the added benefit of attacking Romney's weakness.  He is not likeable.  Even if he drank, you would rather have a beer with Barack, than a margarita with Mitt.

The most devastating ad is: "Stage" http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=oLo0Jwj03JU&feature=youtu.be.  A fired worker recalls building the stage used as a platform by Bain executives to announce the closing of the plant.  He says, "It was like building my own coffin".  Prioities USA seeks to nail the coffin shut on the Romney candidacy.

DI's Restaurant in Basile, Louisiana

DI's restaurant is five miles from nowhere, a huge restaurant set in the middle of their own crawfish farm.  Not surprisingly, they have the best crawfish I have ever tasted.  There are no reservations, so there can be a wait.  Usually, there is a cajun band for dancing.  But on the night we visited there was  the traditional cajun Mardi Gras chicken run

Republican Poll Dancing

Republicans sliding down polls are wiggling like never before, but no one is tipping.  For them the highlight of the show would be for Obama to take center stage with no coattails.

Polls can be slippery things.  Determining the makeup of likely voters is as much an art as a science.  There can be a silicone effect which can push up the numbers, if the wrong assumptions are used about party affiliation, minority composition, or gender.  Numbers can be bumped and ground down by robo call polls like Rasmussen, which only call land lines.

 Someone going down in the polls often blames the polls, but the extreme right are completely losing their grip.  Hewitt, Limbaugh, Morris and Erickson, and no doubt others, believe the polls are a conspiracy by the main stream media to suppress the Republican vote.  This is an unsupportable naked assertion, the Republican expertise in voter suppression notwithstanding.  Pollsters who lack credibility will be dancing alone, nary a VIP client in sight.  Democrats, particularly Obama, fear over confidence.

Republicans need to lighten up.  Perhaps, the party should have a two drink minimum.

Obama's October Surprise (Redux)

"In one Ohio ad buy slated to run just before the election, for example, Obama is paying $125 for a spot that is costing a conservative super PAC $900."  From an article by Dan Egan in the Washington Post on September 26.

The first post on this blog discussed the financial advantages Obama would enjoy because of campaign finance law. 

Obama's October (and September) Surprise

Commercial airways in the 60 days preceding the Presidential Election may not be a complete no fly zone for Super Pacs, but at a minimum flights will be limited, expensive, and difficult to change.  Conventional wisdom is wrong.  Super Pacs will have less impact than expected.

Under campaign finance law television stations must give each presidential campaign reasonable access, freedom from censorship, and during the 60 days preceding the election, the lowest unit rate available.  Neither Super Pacs, nor the political parties,  enjoy these advantages.  In fact a television station violates the law if a Super Pac is offered a reduced advertising rate (See Federal Election Commission Advisory Opinion 2006-31).  It would be an illegal campaign contribution for a station, e. g. Fox News, to offer a Super Pac reduced rates.

The law should favor the President.  Mitt is expected to catch more Super Pac money, while the President will field more small contributions directly to his campaign.   In the crucial run up to the election, a dollar from the President's campaign will buy more advertising than a dollar from a Romney Super Pac.

Equally important is flexibility.  In the closing days of a campaign resource allocation may change rapidly, a state may come into, or go out of play.  Super Pacs have no preferential access to air time.  With the expected deluge of political adds in battle ground states, as well as increased commercial adds during the start of the fall season, advertising time will be limited.  To get on the air Super Pacs may have to commit, and lock in resources, earlier than the campaigns.  Money may be wasted in states that are no longer battlegrounds.  (To keep up on which states are battlegrounds, and other political news, checkout http://www.politicalwire.com)

Message flexibility is as important as geography.  Campaigns may need to cut an ad at the last minute to confront a new issue.  Since adds from a campaign are free from censorship, stations accept content without review.  Ads from Super Pacs must be reviewed, which can delay airing of the adds.

The President's surprise is that while less money may be spent by him in the final days of the election, he will have as much, or more, advertising time in battleground states as the challenger.

I told you so

Political commentators are only now discussing what my few, but faithful, readers learned in June.

Did Super PACs Not Matter?

Jonathan Chait: "One of the dogs that hasn't barked in this campaign is the massive financial advantage Mitt Romney was expected to enjoy on account of nearly unlimited funds available to him from conservative Superpacs. Yet, even including the efforts of outside groups, Obama has been out-advertising Romney in the key swing states..."

"The full story of how the financial tsunami failed to strike has yet to be untangled, but bits and pieces have dribbled out over recent days."


Also, a big shout out to Iowa.  Early in person voting begins today.  Vote!

Republican Uncivil War

 If, as seems increasingly likely, Obama wins, the grey suited elite will be battling the blue collar base.  Tea partiers will be pouring hot water into the main stream.  Warning shots have been fired.

Erick Erickson of RedState has written:

 "There are a lot of elitist Republicans who have spent several years telling us Mitt Romney was the only electable Republican. Because the opinion makers and news media these elitists hang out with have concluded Romney will not win, the elitists are in full on panic mode. They conspired to shut out others, tear down others, and prop up Romney with the electability argument. He is now not winning against the second coming of Jimmy Carter. They know there will be many conservatives, should Mitt Romney lose, who will not be satisfied until every bridge is burned with these jerks, hopefully with the elitist jerks tied to the bridge as it burns."

Rhetorical immolation of David Brooks, Peggy Noonan, and others, before the first vote is counted, harkens the imminent  fratricide.  The ever dwindling Jeb Bush portion of the party will argue that Romney ran a poor campaign and, a campaign so impaired by the  rigidity of its right wing, that it was unable to sustain flight.  Conservatives will vow to shoot any Rino on sight.  For them, the lesson will be that only a true conservative can conquer the American electorate.

Bill will chuckle as Hillary coasts to victory in 2016.

Akin Plunges Head First into Gender Gap (redux)

A giant shout out to Claire McCaskill.  Today is the last day for Todd Akin to withdraw.  She has held her fire for fear of forcing him out of the race. Now the ad described below can run.

The deadliest gaffe is when a candidate inadvertently tells the truth.  Such is the case with Todd Akin's claim that "legitimate" rape victims do not get pregnant.  Romney, and all other Republicans in close races, live in mortal fear of the gender gap.  This explains the rapid fire denouncement of the remark by so many key Republicans, and the defunding of Akin by the Republican National Committee and American Crossroads.

No doubt some social conservative groups will make up some of the funding, but Akin is in trouble.  Since Missouri had become an increasingly red state, some now consider the race competitive instead of leaning strongly Republican.  Soon they will acknowledge the race is taking on a blue tint.  Republican criticism of Akin helps the critics but hurts the party.  The inevitable McCaskill ads featuring these denouncements will be decisive.

The road to Republican control of the Senate, has always gone through Missouri.  This road block will add at least 2 years to that journey.

Here is a new ad by McCaskill:  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/26/mccaskill_hammers_akin_in_new_ad.html

When Worlds Collide

Obama  won the war of the words.  The Romney podium placards are etch a sketch moments.  The current  "Romney Plan for the Middle Class" is reactive, he is trying to invade Obama world, not knowing that alien invaders always lose.  For a creature of the 50s, his memory of post sputnik sci fi is limited.  Perhaps that is why he thinks Russia is our number one enemy.

Campaign messaging is three spheres.  The first is the real world, loosely represented by main stream media, which amplifies or mutes paid advertising.  The daisy ad used against Barry Goldwater only played once, but the media echo chamber of Goldwater as an extremist, parlayed it into a devastating and decisive attack.   Conversely, the Romney medicare attack has died out.

The second globe is the strategic plan.  This is a single theme, although it may have many parts.  The campaign must present a consistent narrative and plan that carries through from the beginning of the campaign until election day.  So far Obama has done this, Romney has been a serial message changer.

Finally, the small moon circling the real world is the tactical campaign.  It orbits every 24 hour news cycle, seeking more light for its campaign and more darkness for the opposition.  This is the part of the campaign that gravitates towards gaffes, or perceived gaffes.  It works when it moves in tandem with the strategic plan.  "You Built it" worked for Romney because it fit the campaign story of a business man who understands how the economy works running against a failed president.  Similarly, Romney's 47% video is consistent with Obama's portrayal of Mitt as an out of touch plutocrat, who does not understand the problems of the middle class.

But flailing attempts to win news cycles can knock a campaign out of orbit, if inconsistent with the strategic vision.  This was the case with Romney's Libya remarks, and so many recent attacks.  Soon we will know if Mitt can pullout of this death spiral.

Can Romney Win a Fair Fight (redux)

An answer is emerging to this question first posed in June.  By the way, a shout out to the battleground state of Virginia which begins absentee voting today.


In his two electoral successes, beating Shannon O'Brien for governor and winning the Republican nomination, Romney has had the same ring strategy.    He uses superior resources to out punch his opponent, with most of the blows at, or below, the belt.  He outspent O'Brien by 50%.  His advantage in the Republican primaries was far greater.

Obama is a prodigious fundraiser.  His campaign will probably raise more money than Mitt's.  Including Super Pacs, and other third parties,  Romney will have the cash advantage.  But campaign finance rules will negate part of this advantage (see my earlier post "Obama's October (and September) Surprise").  Obama also has the advantage of incumbency.  No campaign resources are used when he flies into the swing state of Colorado, to survey the fire damage and, to offer federal assistance.

Can Romney win a fair fight?  Looking at his protruding chin, I suspect he has a glass jaw.

Obama Benefits from Inequality

Not all dollars are created equal.  Just as Obama's team used mastery of the intricacies  of delegate selection to help secure the 2008 nomination, their mastery of campaign finance rules is helping to win the 2012 election.

1.  Primary dollars are worth more than general election dollars.  A contributor can give a maximum of $2500 dollars for the primaries and the same amount for the general election.  Primary money may be rolled over into general election funds but general election funds may not be used before a candidate is nominated.  Romney could only stare wistfully at his large general election bank account during the summer, having tapped out much of his primary money securing the nomination.
2. Uncontested dollars are most valuable.  Obama was able to successfully define Romney, as a heartless plutocrat, during the summer with only minimal resistance.
3. Dollars from small contributors are worth more than those from major donors.  As anyone receiving 4 e-mail solicitations a day knows, small contributors can be tapped again.  Major donors are done with direct contributions to the campaign once they give $2500 to the primary and general campaigns.  Reliance on fewer, but larger, contributions accounted for Romney being general election rich, and primary poor, during the summer.
4. Campaign dollars are worth more than party dollars.  Much of Romney's massive fund raising has been in coordination with the RNC.  In addition to  $5000 to the campaign a donor may contribute $30,800 to  the national party committee.  But only 21 million may be spent by the committee in coordination with the campaign.  RNC coordinated advertising, in support of Romney, is limited to that amount.  Also lower advertising rates and preferential availability of ad time apply solely to the campaign.
5. Campaign dollars are worth more than super pac dollars. In addition to limited contributions to the campaign and the party committee, wealthy donors may give uncapped contributions to Super Pacs.  But, TV stations are not required to make time available for super pacs ads, nor may they be offered the preferential rates legally mandated for campaign ads        ( this is more fully covered in the post "Obama's October (and September) Surprise").    Also if the devil(as Republicans see him) is fiddling better than Romney at the crossroads, soulless Karl Rove may send his money down the road to congressional and senate races.
6. Campaign dollars are more effective than third party dollars.   LA Times reporters Melanie Mason and Matea Gold reported on the problems of mixed messaging. Super Pacs, and political parties, above set limits, may not coordinate with the campaign.  Although sometimes buried under a jagged jumble of news cycles, a consistent focused message is the goal of a campaign.  Obama has a more focused message because his campaign places 90% of its ads, in contrast to less than 50% by the Romney team.

Romney's most devious stratagem to date, was giving his campaign staff a $200,000 bonus after the inept Republican convention.  He sought to sow dissension among, the already less highly compensated, and better performing, Obama staff.  He failed to account for the morale and resume value of being on the winning side.  Perhaps, Romney does not understand the value of a dollar.

A Shout out to Wisconsin and North Carolina

Absentee voting  begins today in the battleground state of Wisconsin, and began September 6 in North Carolina.  Vote today!

My semi-alma mater( I went there for my freshman and sophomore years), Reed College, has published the only early voting calendar I have been able to find on the net.  Check it out at:
http://reed.edu/earlyvoting/calendar/.

A Miracle in the Making

If Obama wins,  it will be a miracle of biblical proportions.  However, in this version it is the Barackians, not Romses II, who face the plagues of high unemployment, a stagnant recovery, costly gas, unpopularity of the creed of Obamacare, and the loss of many a first born in the deserts and mountains of Afghanistan.

But, the Barackians have had a true vision.  During the Republican primaries, when  many false prophets were speaking in tongues, they focused solely on Romses II.  When the great Carville came down from the mountain, with the tablet inscribed with, "It's the economy, stupid,"  the people rose up and said, verily, it is so.  And, they spent manna early to show that Romses II is stupid on the economy.  And many heard there words and said, "truly he is a bane upon us." And the people heard of the evil of Bushie II, and they understood. And, the Barackians convened and many listened and nodded.  And, manna was spent so that the people could be shown the way, out of the wilderness into the battleground polls.   And verily, it was so. 

Romses II said little about himself, or his records, and the people believed he had evil secrets.  When he convened with his people they were smitten with rain.  And then a great feeling of emptiness settled upon them and descended unto a chair.  And, many listened but few nodded.

Romney's Tea Party

The tea is weak and poured with an unsteady hand.  Romney has forgotten the sugar, and, embarrassingly, is mixing milk with lemon.  The Romney campaign is curdling.  Tea partiers,who have finally earned a place at the Romney table, doubt the sincerity of the host.  His most authentic tea party moment was offending the British, and that is the wrong tea party. There will be no shortage of mad hatters if, as is increasingly likely, Romney loses.  We can expect a Republican food fight.

On the other side, Democrats are enjoying double lattes.  Not only is Romney running cold, but super pacs keep pouring money on the same tea bag.  With a candidate as well know as the president, the law of diminishing returns precludes a few extra ads from impacting the voters' verdict.  Money flowing to Romney siphons off funds, which could preserve, or enhance, the Republican congressional majority.

Is it too soon to chill the champagne?

Romney: Cold and Fuzzy

Romney's focus group flexibility on issues is balanced by his consistency in campaign tactics.  He eschews the normal pattern of starting with positive biographical ads.  He pounds the opponent with negative ads.  But strikingly his attacks make hypocrisy an art form.

In his gubernatorial race he attacked Shannon O'Brien, who released ten years of tax returns, for not releasing her husband's returns.  These attack ads fuzzed up the issue of Romney not releasing returns.  He attacked Kennedy on the same grounds when he ran for Senate.  But being unable to use the issue this time, he claims release of tax returns are of no consequence.

Romney attacked Obama on Medicare.  Yet his running mate's budget has the same 716 billion in cuts in  future Medicare costs.  His claim of taking steps ts save Medicare is false.  His plan shortens the life of the trust by 8 years.

His tax plan is no different.  For months Obama has been attacked for lack of leadership for not presenting a detailed plan to Congress, but only guidlines.  But the Romney/Ryan explanation for not detailing the deductions necessary to fund his tax plan, is that the matter is best left to open debate in Congress

Duplicity is not a singular sin.  It is multiplied by the disdain for the electorate that it represents.

Luang Prabang

On another hot day, my thoughts again drift towards water.  Taken from my favorite bar in Luang Prabang, Laos in 2011.

Election May be Over by Mid-October

Since Romney is  a notorious killer of varmints, perhaps his motor coach should be named the blunderbuss.  When compared to the Obama homage, the Romney convention was stuck in neutral.  Never has an uncontested convention shown so little interest in their nominee.  The convention will be best remembered for an empty chair and a prospective commander-in-chief, failing to mention an on going war or to thank the troops.

Lest anyone question his unfitness for duty,  Romney doubled down on an untruthful and disgraceful partisan attack during the embassy crisis.  His vagueness on his tax plan, and his campaign's failure to respond to attacks on him and Bain during the summer, have undercut his advantage on the economy. Recent polls reflect the Romney regression.

Obama's emphasis on the ground game may soon finish the race.  Early in person voting starts on September 27 in Iowa, and on October 2 in Ohio.  Absentee voting starts in 6 days in Virginia, and in early October in Florida and New Hampshire.  If Obama can sustain, or increase, his current advantage through the first debate on October 7, the blunderbuss will breakdown.

No help will come for the stranded campaign.  I predict that off of strong fundraising during the democratic convention, Obama will raise thirty million dollars more than Romney in September.  Karl Rove is one rat that knows when to abandon a sinking bus.  His super pacs will divert funds to house and senate races.

A bad debate will seal Mitt's fate.

Romney Violates Fundamental Principles

“The Embassy of the United States in Cairo condemns the continuing efforts by misguided individuals to hurt the religious feelings of Muslims — as we condemn efforts to offend believers of all religions. Today, the 11th anniversary of the September 11, 2001, terrorist attacks on the United States, Americans are honoring our patriots and those who serve our nation as the fitting response to the enemies of democracy. Respect for religious beliefs is a cornerstone of American democracy. We firmly reject the actions by those who abuse the universal right of free speech to hurt the religious beliefs of others.”

This is the statement issued by the Cairo embassy six hours before the embassy was breached and before the tragedy in Libya.  Romney's response violated fundamental principles.

1. Patriotism.  During an international crisis we have one elected president.  Reagan had the good sense to support Carter when the hostage rescue failed.
2. Timing.  Do not start sweeping before the dust has settled.  Romney spoke too soon.  He has some cleanup to do.
3. Credibility.  Truth matters when the nation's attention is focused.  The statement was made before the embassy was breached.  It was not an apology.  It did not violate American principles.  The first reaction post attack was to condemn it, both by the embassy and by Secretary Clinton.
4. Delegation.  A key Republican credo is to push down decision making closer the the people impacted.  Obamacare is OK if adopted by a state.  Social programs should be block grants to the states.  The president is wrong to fail to take the recommendations of generals responsible for military operations.  But,  decisions made by an embassy attempting to defuse a crisis are given no weight by Romney.  Note that the ambassador is not a political crony.  She was appointed by GW as ambassador to Pakistan, before her current posting.
5. Religious tolerance.  Religious freedom is part of the Romney stump speech. Requiring church owned businesses to provide the same contraception coverage as other businesses is condemned.  In its strict construction religious freedom is the right to worship where you choose without government interference.  Separate legislation prevents religious discrimination in employment and in other sectors of the economy.  But it is the social tolerance of minority religious beliefs that makes it possible for a Mormon to run for president.  Freedom of speech would permit us to say, that Mormons are polygamists who defile underage virgins and perform animal sacrifices in their secret services.  Condemning that statement would not violate freedom of speech or core American principles.
6. Wisdom.  Wisdom is the fruit of pairing intelligence with experience.  Romney has the intelligence, but his lack of foreign policy experience, or of a top flight foreign policy team, is showing.  An anti-Islamic film could not be made in Egypt, so an explanation is necessary.   A shimmering statement about the American right of free speech might have sufficed in a secular and universally literate European country.  But we are dealing with theocratic or semi-theocratic states, with largely illiterate populations that accept the word of their mullahs without question.  The statement was aimed at those mullahs and the government.  It might have succeeded but for events in Libya, and some extremist mullahs.
7. Politics.  The unemployment of so many Americans is the path to Romney's employment as president.  Switching the subject to foreign policy, Obama's strong suit, is bad politics.  
 

Blind ambition is not a vision for the future of America.  Romney offers nothing else.

The Uncertainty Myth Redux

Romney and Ryan's inartistic ambiguity on their tax plan over the weekend, is my reason to repeat this July 6 post.

Republicans have long shouted from the roof tops that businesses have failed to increase their workforces because the President has created uncertainty with with his legislation, proposals and regulations.  Fortunately, most Democrats do not live on roof tops.  We are more grounded in the truth.

Today I will only focus on the respective tax proposals.   Obama was clear that he wanted to increase the top bracket for income in excess of $250,000 from 35% to 39.6%.  This is hardly a job killer.  Large corporations will not stop hiring because the tax rate for some executives will increase.  Small businesses taxed on the individual rate, that are making net profit in excess of 250,000, are unlikely to pass up a good business opportunity because of 4.6% increase in taxes over that amount.  At most it might be a slight consideration on the margins.

In contrast if business leaders believe the Ryan/Romney budget has a chance of passage there would be total paralysis.  The plan cuts taxes, primarily on upper bracket tax payers, by 5 trillion over the next 10 years.  Defense spending is to increase by 2 trillion.  But not only is the budget supposed to cover this loss of revenue, but the deficit is to be reduced.  This is to be achieved by cutting spending,  a thread bare safety net, and removing unspecified deductions.  Spending creates demand.  Businesses will be reluctant to expand until the impact can be quantified.

A central tenet of business planning is to maximize deductions.  Moreover, some deductions are industry specific.  Without knowing whose ox will be gored, businesses will be on an economic diet, leading to an anorexic economy.

Romney Hits New Low

Chants of USA, the slogan "Believe in America", and even Romney's off key renderings of "America the Beautiful" are to convey a sense of unity and national purpose.  This is belied by the attack on the president's foreign policy during a national tragedy.  Analysis, and even criticism,  can wait until we mourn our dead and protect those still in harm's way.

A bull in a China shop may be costly, but a bull in China, the Middle East or other areas of diplomatic delicacy can be deadly.  

One Girl Will Be Single No Longer

We got engaged on her birthday.

S and P and the Single Girl

Young men and women entering the job market were given a dripping double scoop with two bad flavors.  Few new jobs were created during the economic contraction, and workers held on to existing jobs limiting openings and upward mobility.

The recent job report was disappointing with only 96,000 net new jobs, yet the unemployment rate dipped slightly.  The common explanation is that many have given up the search.  More likely,  the upward trend in the stock market has begun to allow a pent up demand for retirement to be realized.

Defined benefit pension plans that guaranteed a monthly annuity at retirement age are increasingly rare.  Those plans are not dependent on the success of plan investments.  The employer shoulders the risk.  More common today are 401(k) and other defined contribution plans.  The employee has the risk.  Because of sharp declines in the market many could not afford to retire.  Not only has the market doubled since March of 2009, but of late it has held most of its gains.  People are beginning to overcome economic fear and embrace retirement. 

The rise in the market may provide the greatest benefit to those who have not yet begun to invest.

Cambria Sunset

Just returned from Cambria.  Politics soon, but for now a beautiful sunset.

May Your Weekend be Mysterious

Off to Cambria for a long weekend.  Let me leave you with two pictures from the White Desert (Egypt 2011)

Four More Beers

The Republicans have recycled Reagan's query, "Are you better off now than you were 4 years ago?"  The correct answer is yes.  Some of the reasons--29 months of private sector job growth, avoiding financial collapse into a depression,  the start of a rebound for the housing industry, the successful bailout of GM and Chrysler, closing in on universal heath care, the pull out from Iraq, winning in Libya without loss of life or treasure, greater national security through killing Osama bin Laden and most of the upper echelon of Al Qaeda, financial reform, the rebound of the stock market, and expanded civil rights for gays and lesbians.  But the simple answer to the question is no.  The unemployment rate is higher, and median income is lower, than when the president took office.

But it is like an alcoholic who goes on a binge.  He walks into a bar and opens a tab.  He has a couple of rounds of tax cuts and feels pretty good.  So he switches to deregulation. Next he buys a round of pharmaceutical benefits for all the seniors in the bar.  He proceeds to get into two bar fights that smash up the bar.  The damages to the bar go on his tab.

He stumbles out of the bar gets in his car and proceeds to wrap it around a pole.  Fortunately, on January 1 he stops drinking.  But years later he is still paying on his credit card, hampered by his injuries,  and paying his lawyer and court fines for his DUI.   He even had to go further into debt to buy a car so he could get to work.

But as frustrating as a slow recovery may be, hitting the bottle is not the answer.

Promises Kept

For political wonks like me, Taegan Goddard's politicalwire.com, is a great resource.  He has just referenced an excellent video that reminds us, even with an obstructionist Congress, the president has fulfilled most of his promises.  It is worth a look.  http://politicalwire.com/archives/2012/09/06/promises_kept.html

A Tale of Two Conventions

It was the best of lines, it was the worst of lines.  But the lines could not be more different.  Chris Christie was like a best man who, trying to woo a bridesmaid, talks only about himself, and forgets to toast the groom.  In one day, there has been more mention of, and cheering for, Obama than for Romney in the entire 3 days of, what must be called, the no name convention.  The Republican convention was a shotgun wedding.  Only the NRA was happy.

But before the wedding, comes the ring.   Comparing Michelle Obama's speech to Ann Romney's is like comparing diamonds. A nearly colorless H grade stone appears perfect until you place it next to a colorless D grade. Ann's speech seemed excellent, but by comparison, it now seems like she and Mitt were running for prom king and queen.

Her story about their years in a basement apartment, now seems like they were playing at being poor, when compared to the genuine hardship and aspirations of the families of the first lady and the president.  Michelle showed us a president who makes decisions based on values, our values.

It was also a tale of two wedding planner's.  The Obama staff made our day. 

Republican Dead Cat Bounce

Clint Eastwood's speech got a sitting ovation in North Carolina, the center of America's furniture industry.  As the Democrats assemble in Charlotte, how will they counter a twelve minute prime time homage to a chair?  As the warmer, fuzzier party, will Democrats  feature a love seat during the first lady's presentation?  Inquiries to Debbie Wasserman Schultz, the DNC chair, have gone unanswered.  Perhaps the matter has been tabled.

Except for North Carolina furniture manufacturers and a few conservative pundits dancing on tables, the Republican Convention was ineffective.  As the saying goes, even a dead cat will bounce.  But the small  (0 to 4 percent) bounce, is not enough to counter the stench of a future of backroom abortions and third world level income disparity.

A picture of Romney and Ryan may look good over the sofa, so long as that sofa is not in the  oval office.

L'Abattoir

L'Abattoir is in the Gastown section of Vancouver.  It is the oldest part of the city.   Gastown is edgier and hipper than the glass towers of downtown and Coal Harbor.  For those who like to dance, there are three clubs within a block of the restaurant.

We shared a  perfectly prepared sweetbreads appetizer.   The scallops were large and succulent.  My favorite dish was the duck.  Two large pieces of rare duck breast and the leg meat made into a confit and enveloped in a fried shell.  The menu is small and changes frequently.  The bartenders are well versed.  The "Don Draper" was a nice take on a Manhattan. 

Sun Still Shines on the Raincity Grill

The Raincity Grill is my favorite Vancouver restaurant.  Like Chez Panisse in Berkeley, Ca., it uses the finest locally sourced ingredients.  There is a view of English Bay.  Service is attentive without ever being heavy handed or obsequious.  By Vancouver standards, the prices are reasonable, particularly if you eat early and request to see the early bird menu.  Three courses are 30 CAD, add another 20 for wine pairings.  A nice option with two people, is to order the early bird and the standard prix fixed menu at 49 CAD (28 more for wine parings).  For instance my partner wanted the grilled caesar salad which was on both menus and I wanted the scallops which was only on the 49 menu.  I wanted the braised lamb which was on both, but my partner wanted the halibut from the 49.  We saved 19 and each got exactly what we wanted. In general, the English Bay side of Vancouver seems funkier and more reasonable than downtown and Coal Harbor.

The braised lamb topped with caramelized onions was a contrast in tastes and textures.  It makes my, soon to be posted, 5 favorite lamb dishes list.  It included a wonderful garnish of veal sweatbreads.  The local scallops were perfectly prepared.

The only change from my last visit to Vancouver, is recognition of the cocktail craze sweeping the city.  I had a delicious Manhattan made with a Canadian rye, and my partner had a tasty Sangria punch.