Truth in Labeling

Early the Obama campaign reached a fork in the road, whether to serve flip flopping Mitt burgers, or to showcase the Republican buffet at the extreme right corner of the room with Romney as the featured entree.  Hunger for a choice election made them choose the buffet.

The rationale was obvious.  The Obama campaign feared a referendum election because of the painfully slow recovery.  If Romney is doused with stale Bush seasoning, spiked with fiery right wing rhetoric, and overly rich, voters would be forced to make a choice.  For a while this was working so well, that a landslide was in the offing.  The selection of Ryan and the 47% remark fit the Obama menu.

But Obama allowed Romney to post a new menu in the first debate, undercutting months of work and a fortune in advertising.  The one immutable rule in Presidential politics is truth in labeling.  No one knows what, if any, political principles nourish Romney.  It makes it harder to portray him as tainted food, than as mystery meat.  The flip flop line would have been longer.

The result is a nail bitter.  Not the election snack food I was hoping for.

Sunburn

If I had a pet peeve I would name it dead heat.  Because of the added excitement of a close race, every poll within the margin of error goes by the name of my imaginary pet.  CNN headlines today that Florida is a dead heat--Romney 49, Obama 47.  My peeve is barking incessantly at the statistical stupidity.  It could be tied, but it is equally possible that Romney is up by 5.  Let the numbers speak for themselves, so that I can keep my peeve quiet.

One Half Quart Low

One of the staples in life has been 1/2 gallons of ice cream.  Life had its ups and downs, but you could always count on those rows of 1/2 gallon containers.  For no apparent reason, and with no obvious drop in price, the containers disappeared, replaced by 1.5 quarts.

Romney has always struck me as 1/2 quart low.  He has the rich, white, creamy vanilla part down, but is only empty calories.  He has the intelligence, he has the ambition, but he lacks conviction.  No matter how rocky the road, you always know the values and goals that drive Obama.  Romney is always the flavor of the day.  In Virginia, a state with a large military vote, he expounds on the importance of spending tens and perhaps hundreds of billions on new naval ships, when there is no other naval power, now, or on the horizon.  He only likes the cherry on top.  He spends a convention talking about so-called job creators, but shows no interest in workers.  He promises big extra scoops for defense spending, seeking 2 trillion in increases, but forgets to thank the troops.


He is a shiny new package, but the container lacks empathy.  He is a half quart down.

Why the Debate Mattered

Free media either acts as an echo chamber for paid media or as a mute button.  Obama wants this to be a choice election, while Romney's campaign wanted a referendum on the president.  Obama won.

The second part of the game plan was to portray Romney as an uncaring, right wing extremist plutocrat.  Obama enjoyed early success, but Romney's debate success muted that attack.  For that reason the Obama campaign is  attacking Romney as a flip flopper.  That is more consistent with the debate, which featured a "new" Romney.  It is some measure of success for Romney, that for the first time in the campaign, Obama is forced to change course.

Obama Benefits from Inequality

Not all dollars are created equal.  Just as Obama's team used mastery of the intricacies  of delegate selection to help secure the 2008 nomination, their mastery of campaign finance rules is helping to win the 2012 election.

1.  Primary dollars are worth more than general election dollars.  A contributor can give a maximum of $2500 dollars for the primaries and the same amount for the general election.  Primary money may be rolled over into general election funds but general election funds may not be used before a candidate is nominated.  Romney could only stare wistfully at his large general election bank account during the summer, having tapped out much of his primary money securing the nomination.
2. Uncontested dollars are most valuable.  Obama was able to successfully define Romney, as a heartless plutocrat, during the summer with only minimal resistance.
3. Dollars from small contributors are worth more than those from major donors.  As anyone receiving 4 e-mail solicitations a day knows, small contributors can be tapped again.  Major donors are done with direct contributions to the campaign once they give $2500 to the primary and general campaigns.  Reliance on fewer, but larger, contributions accounted for Romney being general election rich, and primary poor, during the summer.
4. Campaign dollars are worth more than party dollars.  Much of Romney's massive fund raising has been in coordination with the RNC.  In addition to  $5000 to the campaign a donor may contribute $30,800 to  the national party committee.  But only 21 million may be spent by the committee in coordination with the campaign.  RNC coordinated advertising, in support of Romney, is limited to that amount.  Also lower advertising rates and preferential availability of ad time apply solely to the campaign.
5. Campaign dollars are worth more than super pac dollars. In addition to limited contributions to the campaign and the party committee, wealthy donors may give uncapped contributions to Super Pacs.  But, TV stations are not required to make time available for super pacs ads, nor may they be offered the preferential rates legally mandated for campaign ads        ( this is more fully covered in the post "Obama's October (and September) Surprise").    Also if the devil(as Republicans see him) is fiddling better than Romney at the crossroads, soulless Karl Rove may send his money down the road to congressional and senate races.
6. Campaign dollars are more effective than third party dollars.   LA Times reporters Melanie Mason and Matea Gold reported on the problems of mixed messaging. Super Pacs, and political parties, above set limits, may not coordinate with the campaign.  Although sometimes buried under a jagged jumble of news cycles, a consistent focused message is the goal of a campaign.  Obama has a more focused message because his campaign places 90% of its ads, in contrast to less than 50% by the Romney team.

Romney's most devious stratagem to date, was giving his campaign staff a $200,000 bonus after the inept Republican convention.  He sought to sow dissension among, the already less highly compensated, and better performing, Obama staff.  He failed to account for the morale and resume value of being on the winning side.  Perhaps, Romney does not understand the value of a dollar.

The Tea Party's Turn at Bat

When the highest paid  staff in history has its candidate singing "America the Beautiful," it is hard to argue they are running an issues campaign.  Had the Republican electorate but known, they would have nominated a better baritone.  Enter Ryan, stage right.  His budget is the tea party manifesto, game on.

Pundits are already proclaiming Ryan heir apparent.  Of course if Romney wins, Ryan's future will depend on the success of the Romney presidency.  A close loss should stand Ryan in good stead, but a blow out could change the GOP.

The dream of swinging for the fences only ends when you have a turn at bat.  For the right, Dole and McCain struck out because neither was a true conservative.  Romney fit that game plan until he picked Ryan.  If the tea party agenda pops out,  the GOP might move back towards the center, and Ryan might be benched.  I wonder if Romney knows the words to "Take Me Out to the Ball Game."

Romney's Olympic Moment?

Soon we will know if Romney's tax returns are a mere false start, or a full disqualification from the presidential race.  While America is watching this year's dream team shoot, he should be passing ten years of tax returns to the press corp.

The political game plan always calls for a dump of embarrassing data when the public  focus is elsewhere.  If the campaign ignores the unique opportunity afforded by the Olympics, the tax returns, if released, would be a game changer.

Romney Wimps Out

Condoleezza Rice on Romney's short list was a tantalizing story.  She could have been a game changer--appealing to independents, but challenging to a portion of his base.  It had the potential to replace discussions of Bain and tax returns.

But as soon as Romney received pressure from conservative groups he stepped on the story that his campaign had so carefully leaked.  Romney assured some conservative groups that Rice would not be the nominee, and publicly declared that his selection would be pro life (Rice is on record as saying she is mildly pro choice).

Another Romney flip has flopped.

Rice Bowl

What do you do when your business background becomes a bane not a boon?  You drudge up the name of a provocative potential VP and leak it to a friendly media source.  Romney desperately wants to change the subject.

However articulate, qualified and demographically desirable  Condoleezza Rice may be, Romney is unlikely to select someone who is pro choice and has ties to the Bush administration.  Romney wants to run out the clock until the public focus shifts to the Olympics, and he can remind voters of his role in the 2002 Salt Lake games.   

Can Romney win a fair fight?

In his two electoral successes, beating Shannon O'Brien for governor and winning the Republican nomination, Romney has had the same ring strategy.    He uses superior resources to out punch his opponent, with most of the blows at, or below, the belt.  He outspent O'Brien by 50%.  His advantage in the Republican primaries was far greater.

Obama is a prodigious fundraiser.  His campaign will probably raise more money than Mitt's.  Including Super Pacs, and other third parties,  Romney will have the cash advantage.  But campaign finance rules will negate part of this advantage (see my earlier post "Obama's October (and September) Surprise").  Obama also has the advantage of incumbency.  No campaign resources are used when he flies into the swing state of Colorado, to survey the fire damage and, to offer federal assistance.

Can Romney win a fair fight?  Looking at his protruding chin, I suspect he has a glass jaw.