A Glimmer of Hope

 Democrats are bracing for a red tide that sinks all ships.  The halcyon days of early post-Dobbs are a distant memory.  Polls show even blue Oregon and Colorado in doubt.  Undecideds usually break in one direction.  If as is common, it is against the party in power, the polls could be underestimating GOP strength.

But it is time to breakout the clippers lest nail biters have too much to chew on.  There is some basis for hope.  Momentum is as important as absolute numbers.  But for group think, Hillary's defeat should have been obvious.  Although the polls just before election day had her up,  the trend line for the prior two weeks had been down.

Republicans have been advancing, according to 538 polling averages, during the past weeks, but over the last 3 days the momentum has stalled.  Stasis is better than destruction.  

But that is not enough.  Could the polls that have so often underestimated Republican strength be erring on the other side?  Fortunately the answer is yes.  Polls predict who will vote.  Errors occur when electorate modeling is wrong.  

Modeling relies heavily on the past.   More women, dismayed by Dobbs, could vote than in prior cycles.  Student loan forgiveness and environmental concerns might lure the young to the polls.  Both groups favor Democrats.  Skies are grey with a 60 per cent chance of rain.  But the sun could easily peak through.  Predictions are often wrong.

Summer Time Blues

For those trailing in the polls, June gloom is tempered because school's out for summer.  Historically, summer polls are slippery.  Vacation and recreation are the focus, not the babbling brook of political rhetoric.

But this blue wave may be different.  The rising tide may lift Biden and senatorial candidates.  This year strips of material are masks, not bikinis.  Hunkered down we have the time for current events.  With the triple threat of pandemic, recession, and calls for racial justice, we have the focus.

So the flashing blue polls may light the November skies.

Republican Poll Dancing

Republicans sliding down polls are wiggling like never before, but no one is tipping.  For them the highlight of the show would be for Obama to take center stage with no coattails.

Polls can be slippery things.  Determining the makeup of likely voters is as much an art as a science.  There can be a silicone effect which can push up the numbers, if the wrong assumptions are used about party affiliation, minority composition, or gender.  Numbers can be bumped and ground down by robo call polls like Rasmussen, which only call land lines.

 Someone going down in the polls often blames the polls, but the extreme right are completely losing their grip.  Hewitt, Limbaugh, Morris and Erickson, and no doubt others, believe the polls are a conspiracy by the main stream media to suppress the Republican vote.  This is an unsupportable naked assertion, the Republican expertise in voter suppression notwithstanding.  Pollsters who lack credibility will be dancing alone, nary a VIP client in sight.  Democrats, particularly Obama, fear over confidence.

Republicans need to lighten up.  Perhaps, the party should have a two drink minimum.