A Glimmer of Hope

 Democrats are bracing for a red tide that sinks all ships.  The halcyon days of early post-Dobbs are a distant memory.  Polls show even blue Oregon and Colorado in doubt.  Undecideds usually break in one direction.  If as is common, it is against the party in power, the polls could be underestimating GOP strength.

But it is time to breakout the clippers lest nail biters have too much to chew on.  There is some basis for hope.  Momentum is as important as absolute numbers.  But for group think, Hillary's defeat should have been obvious.  Although the polls just before election day had her up,  the trend line for the prior two weeks had been down.

Republicans have been advancing, according to 538 polling averages, during the past weeks, but over the last 3 days the momentum has stalled.  Stasis is better than destruction.  

But that is not enough.  Could the polls that have so often underestimated Republican strength be erring on the other side?  Fortunately the answer is yes.  Polls predict who will vote.  Errors occur when electorate modeling is wrong.  

Modeling relies heavily on the past.   More women, dismayed by Dobbs, could vote than in prior cycles.  Student loan forgiveness and environmental concerns might lure the young to the polls.  Both groups favor Democrats.  Skies are grey with a 60 per cent chance of rain.  But the sun could easily peak through.  Predictions are often wrong.