A Glimmer of Hope

 Democrats are bracing for a red tide that sinks all ships.  The halcyon days of early post-Dobbs are a distant memory.  Polls show even blue Oregon and Colorado in doubt.  Undecideds usually break in one direction.  If as is common, it is against the party in power, the polls could be underestimating GOP strength.

But it is time to breakout the clippers lest nail biters have too much to chew on.  There is some basis for hope.  Momentum is as important as absolute numbers.  But for group think, Hillary's defeat should have been obvious.  Although the polls just before election day had her up,  the trend line for the prior two weeks had been down.

Republicans have been advancing, according to 538 polling averages, during the past weeks, but over the last 3 days the momentum has stalled.  Stasis is better than destruction.  

But that is not enough.  Could the polls that have so often underestimated Republican strength be erring on the other side?  Fortunately the answer is yes.  Polls predict who will vote.  Errors occur when electorate modeling is wrong.  

Modeling relies heavily on the past.   More women, dismayed by Dobbs, could vote than in prior cycles.  Student loan forgiveness and environmental concerns might lure the young to the polls.  Both groups favor Democrats.  Skies are grey with a 60 per cent chance of rain.  But the sun could easily peak through.  Predictions are often wrong.

Gut Shot

Democrats bring a knife to a gun fight.  Republicans take gut shots with emotional appeals.  Time for Democrats to strap on a pair.

When I went to a farmers market in St. Louis many years ago, an anti-abortion group, had life like fetuses at various states of development in jars filled with liquid.  I threw them off stride, when I asked to buy one.  But there is no doubt that the booth had an emotional punch.

 In the push to have the most extreme anti-abortion laws Republican legislatures are making no exceptions for rape, incest or non-viable fetuses.  We must run ads showing depraved rape of an underage girl or a father having sex with his child.  The tag line could be:  "I support Cindy's right to choose, Congressman X supports the right of the rapist to father Cindy's child.  Stand with Cindy, vote on November 8th."

Democratic Wedgie

With Obama at the head of the ticket casual voters became committed.  The Republican Party took such a sharp, sudden right turn, that they lost the few moderates who were trying to follow.

In 2014 Obama will not be on the ticket.  Turning out the base, let alone expanding it, will be a challenge.  Enter gay rights stage left.  If as expected, the court issues only a limited ruling on gay marriage, Democrats will have a morally, and politically, strong issue in many states.  Republicans, historically have had the edge with social wedge issues.  If Democrats get gay marriage initiatives on key state ballots a stormy campaign may end in a glorious rainbow.