Thursday, September 27, 2012

Republican Poll Dancing

Republicans sliding down polls are wiggling like never before, but no one is tipping.  For them the highlight of the show would be for Obama to take center stage with no coattails.

Polls can be slippery things.  Determining the makeup of likely voters is as much an art as a science.  There can be a silicone effect which can push up the numbers, if the wrong assumptions are used about party affiliation, minority composition, or gender.  Numbers can be bumped and ground down by robo call polls like Rasmussen, which only call land lines.

 Someone going down in the polls often blames the polls, but the extreme right are completely losing their grip.  Hewitt, Limbaugh, Morris and Erickson, and no doubt others, believe the polls are a conspiracy by the main stream media to suppress the Republican vote.  This is an unsupportable naked assertion, the Republican expertise in voter suppression notwithstanding.  Pollsters who lack credibility will be dancing alone, nary a VIP client in sight.  Democrats, particularly Obama, fear over confidence.

Republicans need to lighten up.  Perhaps, the party should have a two drink minimum.

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