Playing the Long Game

I was mystified by Hillary's advertising strategy.  In 2012, with airwave superiority Obama bombed Romney's character, defining the race.  Hillary with even greater control of the airwaves, went positive, detailing her work for children.  Even her belated negative ads were soft--children watching Trump's greatest bits.

Free media is always more powerful than paid media.  Ads work when they focus and amplify free media.  Trump was having a bad June.  This was an obvious opening for attack ads against Trump.  Meanwhile, negative coverage of Hillary continued culminating in FBI Director Comey's harsh words.  Positive ads did not move the needle.

Hillary was playing the long game.  She does not want a yoyo diet of up and down polls.  She was softening hearts and opening minds, to close the sale at the Democratic convention.  To paraphrase, James Carville, it's all about the children, stupid.  If she can hold most of the Obama coalition, and pick off white married women, she will win handily.  The message of the convention: She cares about children and their future, Trump, not so much.  Children are the key to unlocking suburbia.

A Tale of Two Cities

It was the worst of prime times, it was the best of prime times.  Hillary had so many all stars that some were bumped out of the heart of the line up.  But for Trump's procreative powers, Scott Baio might have spoken all 4 nights.  Even so, Trump committed the cardinal sin of dead air during network coverage.

The master of media is even losing the ratings game.  More people are watching the Democratic convention.  Hillary's entertainers are A listers, Trump's aspire to one day be B listers.  Hillary in a tour de force shattered the glass ceiling.  Trump turned from orange to Blue.

Pennsylvania and Ohio, earned the conventions as battle ground states.  Conventions are heavily covered nationwide, but  local media doubles down.  Trump's play for positive Ohio press was neutralized, by the storyline of Kasich's absence.  Meanwhile, the first major pole to cover the VP pick and the first 2 nights of the convention has Hillary up 9 points in Pennsylvania.

Helping Nicole Wallace

Nicole Wallace said, she is considering switching parties because the Democratic Convention has better music.  Of course she is right.  The RNC had elevator music, while we have elevating music.  We have Alicia Keyes, they had Scott Baio humming stage right.

But let's help Nicole with her conversion.  We had Meryl Streep, the GOP had the star of Duck Dynasty.  They had Melania crib from Michelle Obama, we had Michelle give a speech for the ages.  We have two presidents speaking, they had two presidents hiding.

Speaking of presidents, Bill told more endearing anecdotes and inspiring stories about our candidate than Melania and the entire Trump brood could manage in five prime time speeches.  The Trump children are good speakers, they just had a bad subject.

Finally Nicole, we have nominated Hillary Clinton and Tim Kaine.  The GOP has a ticket with a narcissist on the top, and an extremist on the bottom.  Nicole, isn't it time you fight for the right to change parties?

Bernie's Babies

Convention delegates are usually seasoned pros with strong party connections.  They, through their candidate, extract concessions before falling in line behind the winner. Bernie has gotten extraordinary platform concessions, as well as reforms in the nominating process.  Seasoned pros, and that includes those few among Sanders delegates, declare victory and live to fight another day.

But Bernie is a life long independent with only a dotted line relationship to the Democratic Party.   His delegates are primarily freshly minted voters attending their first convention.  They drank the revolutionary Kool-Aid, and are now crashing from the sugar high.  They not only believed in the revolution, but were sure of its imminence.  The idealism of the young is their strength and their weakness.

Unlike his delegates, Bernie's voters have mainly moved over to Hillary.  They are made up of many long time Democrats fearful of Trump.  Unfortunately, Sanders delegates are unconcerned that their tantrums may hurt the chances of undecideds buying the Democratic ticket.  When Bill Clinton addressed the convention in support of Obama, he brought the house down.  This time, part of the house may come down on him.

Open Letter to Trump Supporters

You believe Trump will be a better president than Hillary.  That is why we have elections.  But please consider withholding your vote until you see his full tax returns.

Trump and his oldest son have actively sought loans and investments from Russian Oligarchs with ties to Putin.  If we are talking about 10 or 20 million who cares.  On the other hand, if it is hundreds of millions, enough to crater a project if funds are withheld or withdrawn, we need to know.   Trump has taken the most pro Russia positions of any major party candidate since World War II.  Once again who cares unless the so called Bromance with Putin includes a major dowry.

The returns will be helpful for other reasons.  If you are voting for Trump because of his business acumen, the returns will quantify his success or lack of success.  But that pales in comparison to the chance, however small, that we might elect a president influenced by a foreign power.

Trump Hearts Putin

The old saw that banks are robbed because that is where the money is, parallels politicians seeking contributions form mega-banks and Wall Street.  Money buys access, but Trump has been unable to show that it has influenced Hillary's policies.

The case against Trump is much clearer.  As Trump's debt load has increased, and U.S banks have denied him loans, he has become increasingly reliant on investments from Russian Oligarchs with ties to Putin.  This has influenced the Trump campaign.  He hired Paul Manafort to run the campaign.  Manafort spent 10 years working for a pro Putin politician in the Ukraine.  The only platform the Trump campaign actively altered was that on the Ukraine.  In a stark reversal, the GOP platform no longer supports aiding the Ukraine in fending off Russian intervention.  Trump is now taking positions to undermine NATO, the primary barrier to Russian expansion.  The insult candidate has had only kind words for Putin.

Putin has returned the favor.  Russian state media is backing Trump.  Russia hacked the DNC.  Those hacked emails have been released just before the Democratic Convention, trying to drive a wedge between Sanders supporters and Hillary Clinton.

Perhaps Trump's cozy relationship with Russia is the primary reason he will never release his tax returns.

For a deeper analysis see:  http://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/trump-putin-yes-it-s-really-a-thing

Trump Speech Was Shocking

Acceptance speeches are easy.  With candidate input, the greatest speech writers spend weeks crafting  the perfect message.  The candidate has ample time to practice, and can read from a teleprompter.

Virtually all acceptance speeches are excellent.  Even Sarah Palin gave a great speech.  I was certain Trump would do no less.  I was so pleased to be surprised.  The Trump speech was unstructured, overly long, dark and policy impaired.  Whatever content there was died for lack of context and flow.  His shouting delivery did not help.

Great Broadway Musicals, leave you singing, or at least humming, a tune.  A good acceptance speech leaves you with a line.  Even Palin had her pit bull/lipstick line.  The Trump speech had nothing.

Cindy Sherman at the Broad

The Cindy Sherman exhibit at the Broad is a must see.  She uses her knowledge as a photographer for Harpers Bazaar to explore our relationship with media through a series of selfies.  Her commentary is sometimes subtle, sometimes pointed, and sometimes just fun.  Here are a few shots I took of her work.

Trump's Blues

Crowd boos Cruz, but it's the Trumps that lose.  Trump captured the nomination by winning news cycles.  He was the Lance Armstrong of news cycling.  But like Armstrong, the wheels are coming off.

He cannot even win a rigged contest.  Conventions are under the control of the campaign.  Yet he lost the first news cycle because his incompetent campaign gave Melania a defective device.  He lost the second cycle because his campaign did not know how to fix it.

Trump is supposed to be a master judge of people, the key to being a great deal maker.  Trump called Cruz' wife ugly and Cruz' father an aider and abettor of the Kennedy assassination.  So this business genius and his campaign handed Cruz a knife, and are shocked that he slashed their tires.  You don't have to be doping to be a dope.  No yellow jersey for Trump, just the blues.

Ghost Busted

Anyone who has heard one of Trump's rambling rally rants, knows he lacks the competence and coherence to write a book.  Now the ghostwriters are coming back to haunt him.

Tony Schwartz, the real writer of  "The Art of the Deal," has taken Trump apart in New Yorker.  http://www.newyorker.com/magazine/2016/07/25/donald-trumps-ghostwriter-tells-all.  Given a chance he would rename the book, "The Sociopath."

Trump's cheapness cost him the services of Schwartz on future books.  So Meredith McIver, a former ballet dancer and English major, jumped to center stage.  She was willing to work for a Trumpence, and ballet shoes.  Melania liked her so much that she had her rewrite the speech, throwing out most of the work by seasoned speech writers.  McIver's  efforts did more to harm Trump, than Schwartz' tell all.

GOP Day 2

To paraphrase Peter King,  here are 5 things I think I know about Day 2 of the Republican Convention.

1. The Melania plagiarism story lingered for two reasons.  Conventions are scripted infomercials. Reporters clomp down on any real news like a pit bull.  Second, the campaign is taking a keystone cop approach to damage control.  Everyone is running in a different direction.  
2. Speeches were much better than day one.  The pros came through.  Elected officials made strong attacks on Hillary, even sometimes managing to smile, when they stuck in the knife.  Christy played well to the base.  The vignette by Leslie Rutledge, Attorney General from Arkansas, was surprisingly good.  The amateurs were better.  Tiffany was sweet, and told a few anecdotes about her father.  The anecdotes could have been more specific and personal, but they worked.  Donald Jr.  gave the speech of the night.  He told humanizing business stories about his father, and even made a solid policy argument.
3. The pacing and messaging were off.   Trump has very few concrete proposals.  The few that he has, such as  being against trade agreements are not GOP orthodoxy.  As a result, the theme of the night, Make America Work Again, was lost.  The speeches, although good, did not reinforce each other.  The pacing was also strange.  Christie was not in the prime hour.  Donald Jr's speech should have been the final course.  There is nothing wrong with an after dinner drink, but not a flat bitter ale.  The strained Lucifer link did not go down well.
4.  Roughly 60% of voters do not believe Trump is qualified to be president.  To win he must clear that hurdle.  Relentless attacks on Hillary will not get him there.   His two children may have gotten him to the 30 yard line, but he needs two great nights to be able to spike the ball.
5. The chant of "Lock her up," is red meat for the base, but may be too raw for undecided voters. 

Conspiracy Theories

Eccentric Uncle Joe spins a conspiracy theory at Thanksgiving dinner, no harm done. Conspiracy theories at a State Dinner could lead to war.  Trump was the face of the birther movement.  He accused Cruz's father as playing a role in the Kennedy assassination, and Obama of being in league with terrorists.  His retweets of white supremacists are garbage in, garbage out.

A bull in a china shop is costly, a bull in China is deadly.

GOP Day One

Metaphorically the theme from Jaws is playing unendingly in the background.  The message of the night was, be afraid, be very afraid.   But, a cut is best delivered with a smile.  The convention was humorless, and the blade dull.  Giuliani took us to the shiny city on a hill for a nano second before plunging us back down into the knife fight on the streets.

 In this dystopian universe, we are told only Mad Trump can save us.  He appeared out of blue haze to set up his wife's partially plagiarized speech.  In a dystopian universe you take what you need.  What the campaign needs is a new speech writer.

Make Russia Great Again

The Republican Platform aligns with expansion of the Russian Empire. It opposes aiding Ukraine's  fight to fend off Putin supported attacks.  This will cost Trump Neo-Con electoral, financial and editorial support.  He gains nothing.

This radical departure from GOP policy is a forced error.  Trump does not benefit, but his campaign head, Paul Manafort, may.  For ten years Manafort represented Putin's man in the Ukraine, Yanukovych.  The only reasonable rationale for this plank is Putin money flowing downstream to Manafort and his firm.

Do we really want a candidate who places Russia first?

New Top 5 Reasons

Since Trump is running as a successful businessman, his tax returns should be a shiny show of his prowess.  The five reasons he does't release them are.

1. Melania would leave him if she knew how in debt he is.
2. He receives contributions from his own foundation.
3. His foundation supports Neo-Nazi groups.
4. He owns a string of strip clubs in New Jersey used to blackmail Christie into supporting him.
5. His real name is Martinez.

About Face

Unlike Trump, Hillary has a wealth of choices for her running mate.   No one is turning her down.  Elizabeth Warren would double down on women, attract millennials and get under Donald's skin.  Labor Secretary Perez, or either of the Castro twins, would help with Hispanic turnout.  The Castro brothers are  remarkably gifted speakers.

For good reason, Tim Kaine is the favorite.  As the popular former governor and senator of Virginia, he would help Hillary in a battleground state.  His fluency in Spanish would make him an effective spokesperson on Univision and Telemundo.

But now that Trump has focused his campaign on security and law and order,  Hillary should consider a military pick.   Nothing says security like the military.  Hillary is already vetting retired Admiral Stavridis, former Allied Commander of Nato.  Rolling Stone Magazine notwithstanding, former General McCrystal might also be under consideration.

The pick would not be without risk.  Many progressives are uneasy about the military.  But Hillary's soft spot is the perception that she lacks integrity.  Nothing would harden that target more than the backing of a prestigious military partner.

He Needs No Introduction

Actually as someone relatively unknown to the American people, Pence could have used an introduction.  Trump just isn't that kind of guy.

Trump signaled his attitude symbolically with the Rolling Stones lyrics ringing in our ears,  "You can't always get what you want, but if you try real hard,... you get what you need."  Trump needs party unity, and to reassure his base.  He needs Pence's ties to the Koch brothers and other major donors.  But he wanted Christie.

The so-called introduction was the usual litany of Trump praising Trump.  For Trump, looks matter.  He let us know Pence is handsome.   Than he sleepily read some statistics about Indiana.  I doubt many will be excited that this out of step hyper conservative has stepped onto the ticket.  Trump isn't.

Rock Paper Scissors

Donald Trump would have us believe he is a rock standing against terrorism.  Perhaps he is a rock.  He certainly is afraid of paper.  He knows if he is wrapped in his tax returns his image would be cut to shreds.  He has lied about his wealth and his contributions to charity.  His tax rate is lower than that of his underpaid non-union workers in Las Vegas.

Painting himself in red, white and blue will not shield him from exposure in black and white.

Sus-Pence

Having alienated the rising stars in his party, Trump's VP choice is down to  two gas giants and a planet barely known to the general public.  The toxic atmospherics of the gas giants, Christy and Gingrich make them among the least popular politicians in the country.  He can either have the all adulterer ticket, or the all bluster pairing.

His best option may be to venture into the publicly unknown, blandly seasoned, Pence.  But Will Robinson, danger lurks.  A well funded Hillary is prepared to fill in the blanks.  After the debacle of the General Flynn introduction, does the Trump campaign have the capital and the competence to define his running mate?

One Forward, Two Back

The heavens opened.  Trump gave a presidential sounding response to the tragedies of the week.  Knowing he could not be trusted live, the campaign made a video, allowing retakes and editing.  Score one for the campaign.

Then came Sunday.  After floating General Michael T. Flynn as a possible VP choice, Trump placed his as their spokesperson on one of the morning talk shows.  Hillary used Congressman Joaquin Castro.  Castro had the tougher job.  He had to respond to questions about FBI Director Comey's criticism of Clinton's email practices.  The campaign had him prepped.  He answered thoughtfully and carefully, never veering off message.  Flynn, not so much.  The campaign bungled his introduction to the American people.  He struck out on soft balls.

A man who served this country deserved better.

Donald and the Newt

Trump and Gingrich would be mercantile madness.  Pitches for his golf courses, hotels, steaks and water, are a Trump campaign staple.  Newt spent the 2012 campaign selling both his political books, and his wife's children's books.  Trump and Gingrich would be a ticket to a hucksters' holiday.

They would be the first candidates to buy time on the Home Shopping Network.  Could Donald really shun this natural match for General Flynn?  If he must scoop up a general, put me down for General Mills.  Trump could double down on flaky.

Comey Comedy

Republican's can't help themselves.  They stepped on their punchline.  Decades of attacks on Hillary finally produced a serious unforced error.  Her pursuit of privacy, and control, resulted in a quotable upbraiding from the Director of the FBI.

Trump's stream of consciousness took him everywhere from rigged system, to mosquitos, to doubling down on his retweeting of  white supremacist, anti-Semitic material.  The appearance of Comey before the House was all Hillary could hope for.  Conspiracy theories, and attacks on Comey and his decision, overshadowed his harsh criticism of Clinton.  The GOP conspiracy skit made no sense, since Comey donated thousands to McCain and Romney's campaigns.

The GOP slapstick routine may play to their base, but has critics, and the critical independents, laughing at them, not with them.

The NRA IS Racist

Try to close the gun show loop hole to background checks, the NRA starts writing checks to any Congressman on its payroll.  Outrage flows from the pores of wealthy lobbyists.

But when Philando Castile  is gunned down because he let an officer know that he had a duly permitted fire arm, the NRA is unfazed.  For the NRA, the right to bear arms only applies to whites.

They call a white man with a gun an oath keeper.  They call a black man with a gun, DOA.   The NRA does not care.  Yes, there are a few people of color in the NRA, but window dressing will not bring Philando back to life.

Surrogate Supremacy

Clinton's starting surrogate lineup is President Obama, Vice President Joe Biden, Senator Elizabeth Warren, Michelle Obama, and former president Bill Clinton.  She has a deep bench including Dr. Jill Biden, Chelsea Clinton,  Senator Tim Kaine, Julian Castro, Harold Ford Jr., and virtually all Democratic elected officials as well as most of Hollywood and Silicon Valley.

Trump's starting five are, former speaker Newt Gingrich, Governor Chris Christie, Senator Sessions, Surgeon Ben Carson and Trump's daughter, Ivanka.  His two sons and his wife are on the bench.

For the following reasons Hillary will trounce Trump with her surrogate dream team.

MONEY HONEY

How many Trump surrogates can fill a cocktail party at $100 a pop?  Hillary's team can guarantee $1000 on up to the contribution maximum.  She will maintain her financial edge without spending all of her time fundraising.

QUEEN FOR A DAY

Trump triumphed in the primaries by dominating free media.  Hillary giving a speech with any of her top surrogates, is the lead story, burying Trump in the back pages.

HEAVIES IN THE HUSTINGS

Local media may be below the radar, but it radiates votes.  If Joe Biden or Elizabeth Warren appear in a town of thirty thousand, they will be on the front page and dominate local media.  Local media is usually positive.

ECHO CHAMBER

Hillary's message will reverberate through the thousand voices of a united party.  Trump will often be greeted with the sounds of silence.

Judgement Day

Reasons to vote against Trump are legion including, his expressed attitude toward women and minorities, his lack of experience, his narcissism. and his unrealistic, and often unconscionable, policy proposals.  But his lack of judgement is the most compelling.  After a year of discussing current problems, the defining moment for the next president is most likely over the horizon.  Trump's hand size is of no moment, but his stunted judgement could be momentous.

Time and again Trump has sold his name to questionable ventures.  Trump lent his name and infomercial presence to two bunko artists, with complaints against them by attorney generals in 33 states, to form and promote Trump Institute.  With worthless and plagiarized material, the institute earned its "F" rating from the Better Business Bureau.  Condo buyers in Baja California and Florida have been lured by the Trump name into making deposits with projects that lacked the financing to break ground.  Trump prostitutes his name indiscriminately.

The campaign has been no exception.  Trump has lent credibility to white supremacist groups through retweeting their messages.  Consider the source, is not in his lexicon.

Trump gets his fee off the top, and woe to those who rely on his good name and reputation.  His presidency would be no different.  The problem would be "yuge."

Top Five

Here are the top five reasons The Donald won't release his income taxes;

1. He forged his wife's signature not wanting her to see them.
2. He paid no taxes.
3. He gave no money to charity.
4. He is not a billionaire.
5. He misspelled his name.