Sexy Silt

 

The last day of the year, particularly this troubled 2020, is time to herald, out with the old and in with the new.  But for the intrepid tourist, or the ardent historian, the opposite impulse is true.

Towards that end what do Bruges, Ephesus and many other top tourist meccas share?  The answer is glorious silt.  Silt is the sand, clay or other material carried by water and deposited, usually in a harbor or channel.

• Man made historical marvels are preserved through a cycle of wealth and poverty.  Prosperous cities employ the best artisans.  Religious and secular structures shine.  But with continuous prosperity, change is constant.  Buildings are torn down to be replaced with the current architectural fad.  Not so when a city falls on hard times.  Bruges was the center of trade for the region.   Medieval structures reflected the wealth.  But the harbor silted up.  Without funds to build, Bruges became an historical time capsule.

So too was the fate of Ephesus.  Under the Greeks and later, the Romans, this town near the coast flourished with an astonishing population of roughly 250 thousand.  

 The city lacked for nothing.  Aqueducts brought water, and sewage flowed away in underground pipes.  Homes were adorned with mosaics and public buildings paid homage to the gods, particularly Artemis.  Here too silt crippled trade, and froze the city in time.

When economies crumble, buildings remain.

The Vindication of Hillary

 Hillary faced hurricane level headwinds.  She was bashed by her gender, decades of right wing media and most importantly, the meaningless email scandal that was reinvigorated in the closing weeks of her  campaign.  Trump was given unlimited free media.  She lost, but by the narrowest of margins.  

The autopsy of her campaign was bloody, brutal, and ultimately, wrong.  She nailed Trump in all three debates and made historic inroads into the hispanic electorate.  She won the popular vote.  Her sins were underperforming many state polls, and a travel schedule that slighted parts of the Midwest.

Biden look up residence in the Midwestern battleground states.  He stayed on a message made powerful by the mounting deaths caused by Trump's incompetent response to the pandemic.  Although he probably will eke out the narrowest of victories, his underperformance of the polls is historic.  The ballot excess over Clinton in the MidWest, although determinative, is de minimis. 

With the hindsight of 2020, we can now reevaluate 2016.  Trump is a far more formidable candidate than we knew.  He is able to tap into an unimaginably large reservoir of white non-college educated grievance.  His death defying rallies work. He is shameless, which allows him to lie and cheat in electoral politics as he did in business.  He befuddles pollsters.

Oh, Frack

After catching every light and cruising towards the presidency, the Biden campaign has hit an oil slick. Towards the end of Thursday's debate Biden awkwardly discussed transitioning from oil and fracking.  The campaign immediately began environmental cleanup, but the damage had been done.

The first quality post debate polls are in for Pennsylvania and Texas.  Sienna has Biden down 4 in Texas, more importantly, Insider Advantage has Biden down 2 in Pennsylvania.  Texas is not a shock, but this is the first reputable keystone state poll to show Trump ahead.  Only more polling will tell us if this is an outlier or a harbinger.  

The Answer

 Desperate to change the subject from the virus, the Trump campaign has focused on so called "court packing."  The media has joined the fray, and the Biden campaign has struggled for an answer.

Let me suggest an answer for Biden:  "I favor tradition, and will not propose adding justices to the Supreme Court.  But that is not a complete answer to your question.  If the House and the Senate seek to restore ideological balance to the court, will I veto their bill?

Judge Barrett has stated she would have voted to eliminate protection for pre-existing conditions, and to take away insurance for 20 million Americans.  She may follow her strong ideological bent, and refuse to honor precedent on gay marriage, and choice.   I will refrain from vetoing the bill if, and only if, restoring moderation on the court is the only way to protect healthcare and other fundamental rights."

The Orphan Party

The Pennsylvania Republican party is like the child who, having killed his parents, seeks clemency because he is an orphan.  

Counting mail-in ballots is labor intensive.  They must be removed from the envelope, signatures verified, checked for completeness, and then loaded into the vote counting machine.  That is why many states, like Florida and Colorado, allow early processing.  Early processing is critical with the pandemic amplified mail-in ballot surge.

Eagerly getting into the sickbed with Trump, the Pennsylvania Republican controlled legislature has festered fears of fraudulent ballots, particularly those that are not counted on election day.  They voted for an "election integrity committee" with broad powers.

To ensure the committee has ample opportunity to parlay paranoia, the GOP ensured that counting would take weeks.  They blocked any and all proposals to allow early processing of ballots.  Hopefully few voters will endorse adoption of this orphan party.

Know My Name

The most prominent jurist of her generation, Ruth Bader Ginsburg in life, created a more perfect union.  Her death could tear it asunder.

Politics does not stop for eulogies.  Everything RBG fought for is on the line.   The impact of another conservative on the Supreme Court is obvious.  The impact of the opening is less certain, but equally dangerous.

Through an apocalypse of fires in the west, hurricanes in the Southeast, and a nation ravaged by a plague, the presidential race has remained stable.  That has been good for Joe Biden.  

Every day the electorate focuses on the virus is good for Biden.  Changing the subject to the high court this late in the race may be a low blow.  Will it chase low propensity conservative voters to the polls, narrowing or obliterating his lead?  Or, can the talented Biden team turn the tables, as it did with "Law and Order," and neutralize the risk, and even bring their most flighty supporters to the ballot box?

If hypocrisy was a crime, the GOP senate caucus would convene in the prison yard.  Tit for tat, is not all that.  We need more.  Although the image of  buff and tattooed Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell pumping iron, does ease some of the pain.

After Trump announces his nominee, Biden must do the same.  He can choose someone who will electrify all of his supporters, or motivate just a key part of his base.  If willing, Michelle Obama comes to mind.  Her appeal is broad, but particularly strong with young voters and suburban women.  Alternatively, Biden could chose a prominent hispanic jurist.  Biden must seize the moment or be squeezed by history.

Florida Redemption

 In 2000, Florida gave us hanging chads, and no doubt, a similarly titled porn movie.  Florida was the land of constitutional gore.   But, all can be forgiven.

The 2000 recount was frantic, but not dangerous.  The two, decidedly main stream candidates, calmed their supporters.  Trump is different.   He has ranted that Democrats can only win by stealing the election, and that the getaway car will be mail in voting.   Not surprisingly, most Trump supporters will vote in person, while cognizant of Covid, most Biden backers plan to vote by mail.  

A probable scenario is the so-called red mirage.  In most battle ground states in person ballots are counted on the same day, but mail in ballots can take days, or even weeks.   If Trump is leading on election day, his supporters are primed to reject a different result when all ballots are counted.   Armed vigilantes, including white nationalists, will surround counting centers.  The red mirage could turn into blood in the streets.

But Florida can be our savior.  Florida does not accept ballots that arrive after election day.  In Florida, mail in ballots are often counted first.   If Biden wins Florida on election night, media will report that a blue wave has engulfed the red mirage.  Let the sunshine state cast its ever loving light on us.

Tragic Lane Change Kills Haley's Political Career

 The road to the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is congested.  Ted Cruz is in the right hand lane espousing balanced budgets and conservative values.  He is joined by Tom Cotton, who also straddles the Trump lane.  Marco Rubio keeps on making weird hand signals, so his lane is uncertain, but definitely small.   The Trump lane is clogged with Pence, Don Jr., Mike Pompeo, a bit of Cotton and a few other stragglers.

Before recklessly veering into the Trump pileup, Nikki Halley had a clear path.   She could run as the compassionate conservative following in the wake of George W. Bush, with the added benefits of an immigrant background, pigmentation and removal of the Confederate Flag from the South Carolina state house grounds.  

Merging with Trump was political malpractice.  If Republicans remain the party of Trump, she will never be Trumpy enough, compared to Pence and Trump's eldest son.  But if Trump floundered she was positioned to be the shiny, unsullied object of political affection.   

By The Numbers

The immortal Watergate phrase, "Follow the money," applies equally well to presidential campaigns.  Campaigns stop spending in a state because it is either in the bag, or out of reach.  In 2016 Trump won 306 electoral college votes, including claiming Michigan's 16 votes by  a mere 10,000 ballots.

On July 2, after consistently bad poll numbers, the Trump campaign went dark in Michigan.  Without Michigan Trump is down to 290, if he carried all the states that supported him in 2016.   That is just 20 electors more than he needs to be reelected.

Trump is besieged on many fronts.  If he lost Florida's 29 electors votes, Biden is our next president.  Trailing there, he has allocated 39 million of his latest 126 million ad buy to his new home state.  The next largest expenditure, nearly 19 million, is in the lately bright red state of Ohio.  Trump is on defense.

Biden was born in Pennsylvania and his political career has been in the neighboring state of Delaware.  Biden is a strong favorite to pick up Pennsylvania's 20 electoral votes.  That puts him only 2 electors away from victory.   Any state will do.  Currently Biden is ahead in the former Trump states of Arizona, Wisconsin and North Carolina.  Georgia and Texas are a toss up.

To make up for likely losses, Trump needs to win someplace that voted for Clinton.  His campaign has targeted New Hampshire's 4 and Minnesota's 10 electoral votes.  He trails by double digits in both.  His best chance for an electoral surprise is Nevada's 6 votes.  Nevada would not be enough.

Money talks.

Lazy Daze

These lazy, particularly crazy, days of summer are the product of the lazy daze of this administration.  Beginning with the winter of our discontent, this president has never expended the effort necessary to govern.

Joe Biden has a transition team hard at work.   The ship of state needs a large crew ready to go at embarkation.  After aborting a transition team under Chis Christy, Trump won the election without anyone to steer the ship.  His cadre was shocked to discover 6000 positions subject to presidential appointment.  He never made the effort to staff the government.

Obama appointees were left in position, vetting was slip shod leading to frequent embarrassments.  To this very summer day, scores of positions are either vacant or filled on a temporary basis.  Under, and poorly, staffed the government has flailed.

The books by Mary Trump and John Bolton, paint a shallow portrait.  Trump has never done an honest days work.  His younger sister did his college homework, his friend took his SAT, and daddy's money bailed him out of personal and business failures.  He neither reads his daily security reports nor absorbs his oral briefings.

He governs by tweets, executive proclamations and talking points.  He never does the hard work of developing policy and a course of action.  He golfed while the nation became engulfed in a pandemic.    He was glued to Fox News, as our bonds with our allies weakened, and our rivals shed our constraints.

To this day Trump refuses to do his homework before engaging with foreign leaders.  Better informed, our adversaries have the advantage.  But his greatest failing has been the Coronavirus.

As the nation begged for leadership, he left the hard work to the governors, never formulating a national policy.  As foreign  leaders imposed their will, bringing the virus to heel, we have allowed it to fester and proliferate.

Most recently Trump has called for schools to reopen.  He has reduced it to a slogan, rather than a plan.  To win reelection, he needs the economy to improve. School is the day care that allows return to full employment.  But Trump has refused to do the hard work of outlining and funding the steps for a safe reopening.

We need a hard working Joe.

Money Can't Buy Me Love

Madison Avenue elites had stunning visuals, catchy slogans, and most importantly, an unlimited budget.  But they could not sell New Coke.

Combined, the RNC, PACs and the Trump campaign have spent 552 million dollars, exceeding Biden expenditures by over 200 million.  Trump trails by double digits in most polls.

To many he may have seemed effervescent at first, but none can deny the bad after taste.

See No Evil, Hear No Evil

Despite briefing papers, Trump claims he did not see that Russians were placing a bounty on American troops.   Perhaps the only bounty he has seen are the rolls he threw to hurricane victims in Puerto Rico.   Bolton correctly alerts that Putin plays Trump like a fiddle.  But must he be so out of tune.

Trump retweeted a man in a golf cart shouting, "White Power."  He claims he did not hear it.  Maybe golf carts are for him cute and cuddly, like cats are for others.   More likely, with dismal poll numbers, he has decided that dog whistles are not enough, he needs a bull horn, lest anyone doubt his racist bona fides.

Trump cannot complete the famous phrase.  He speaks evil with outlandish consistency.  President Obama committed treason.  Joe Biden is corrupt.  His former cabinet members are wacky, crazy, traitors.

Enough is enough.  November third cannot come too soon.

Summer Time Blues

For those trailing in the polls, June gloom is tempered because school's out for summer.  Historically, summer polls are slippery.  Vacation and recreation are the focus, not the babbling brook of political rhetoric.

But this blue wave may be different.  The rising tide may lift Biden and senatorial candidates.  This year strips of material are masks, not bikinis.  Hunkered down we have the time for current events.  With the triple threat of pandemic, recession, and calls for racial justice, we have the focus.

So the flashing blue polls may light the November skies.

Press the Press

Trump defied the odds.  He didn't just draw to an inside straight.   He drew to an inside straight flush, missing two cards.  The last card off the bottom of the deck was Comey reopening the Clinton email investigation, but the first was dealt by the main stream media.

Mixing metaphors, they turned the Hillary email nothing burger into a 4x4 with extra onions.  Voters were presented a false choice of the lesser of two evils.  Only one candidate was a narcissistic racist.  Adding to the negligence of the press, was a ratings based race to cover Trump rallies en toto.  Never has a candidate received such a heaping helping of free media.

So, free press, having nearly destroyed the country you owe us one.  You are not artists, so paint by the numbers, do not go free form.  If Biden has an adverse medical record or exam, report it.  But do not create a "losing a step," narrative.  Biden gaffed at 35, and has gaffes now.  As a stutterer he often has to switch words mid-sentence to compensate.  That exacerbates his gaffes.

Dare not create a moral equivalency between the occasional misstatement by Biden, and the frequent misdeeds by Trump.

The Ballad of Bunker Boy

He knew they were coming for him,
  because they were black and brown.
So he cowered and shivered,
   hiding deep underground

He called out the army, the guard,
  and our own air force.
They smote citizens with gas, flash/bangs,
   and men on horse.

He emerged and gathered to him
   everyone white,
But he needed something more,
  for the evangelical  right

He remembered a book from
  trials, and the like.
The bible held high he crossed,
  and looked for a mic.

No mic was present,
  unless Pence counted.
So he posed for pictures,
  as the police dismounted.



No rights reserved.  Please feel free to sing, and join the chorus.

Yin and Yang III

The theme of man made glory vs. natural beauty continues with beaches.  Singaporean beaches are, indeed, man made with sand imported from Cambodia and Myanmar.  The beaches are primarily intended for locals, with such attractions as a Universal Studios theme park.  Living less than 10 miles from the original Universal Studios, we passed.

In lore, Bali beaches have an exotic lure.  The reality is more mundane.  The beaches are nice, but probably not on a par with those of Thailand, nor as inexpensive as those in Cambodia.  For us, it was a 2 night pace stop: No sightseeing, just being.

When Horace Greeley said, "Go west young man," he could have been talking about Kuta.  Kuta on the western shore is party central.  For those looking to drink and hookup. either through their charm, or with their wallet, Kuta is the place.  A street of night clubs, as well as the fledging Bali sex trade, are domiciled there.  Other, less extreme scenes are available in the West, but we went East to Sanur.  The strip of land is narrow, so Sanur is only 8 miles from Kuta.

We chose Tandjung Sari, one of the first boutique hotels in tropical Asia, dating back 50 years.  Our beachfront bungalow had living space on the first floor and a ocean view sitting area on the second floor.  We had a private garden and both indoor and outdoor showers.

We woke to breakfast with a view.

Every evening ended with entertainment.

Our short stay was the perfect antidote to the prior week of sightseeing.

Turkey On A Rope

Blue Mosque

Our Turkey trip is a prime example of the Traveler On a Rope philosophy.  The traveler on a rope expects value, but with a budget, and expectations, that go beyond a shoe string.

The impetus for the trip was a Gate1 heavily discounted offer including airfare and 4 nights in a 4 star Istanbul hotel, upgradeable to a 5 star property.  As with most such offers, multiple dates were available.  Usually you can pick a start date, and then a later return date, based on other tours.  We elected a February 27 start date, but with a March 19 return.  This placed us squarely in off season, but with a good likelihood of reasonable weather.

The traveler on a rope always travels in shoulder or off season.  Ephesus with 100 people spread along the grounds evokes the glory of the Roman Empire.  With 5,000 people, it simulates the hell of Los Angeles rush hour.

Although crowd avoidance is the primary lure of off season, substantial savings is a close second.  Hotels are less expensive, and even the best reviewed, have availability.  When we were shopping for a rug is Selcuk, the owner let us know that the rug we fancied would have the fancy price of 2500 Turkish Lira in summer (just under 500 dollars), before offering the winter price of 1200.  In summer further bargaining would have been hard, with multiple tourists seeking his attention.  In an empty store I negotiated down to 600 lira.

The package, was independent travel only including the hotel and airfare.  One half day walking tour was included free, with others offered for a fee.  We slept in and ignored the free tour, and all others.

The traveler on a rope sets priorities.  Moving at your own pace is one of them.  More to come, but with the current crisis, I wanted to reach back and post from a time of mobility.

For those interested in books in the traveler on a rope series, please check out your favorite source for online books.  The most recent is 4 AMERICANS IN CUBA, A TRAVELER ON A ROPE GUIDEBOOK.  The SOUTHEAST ASIA ON A ROPE  series includes a guide to Thailand and Laos, a book on Cambodia and Myanmar, as well as a shorter book on Bangkok and Chiang Mai.  All are under my name, Larry Stein.

Central Casting

Trump has taken to calling himself a wartime president.  The only wars he has waged are on science and his own government.  In crisis his inadequacies are magnified by the weakness of his cast.  It is like a commercial break at the Oscars, when stand-ins (or rather sit-ins), take the seats of attendees.  But in this administration, when the lights come back on, the substitutes are still in place.

Obama prepared the Trump administration for a respiratory pandemic eerily similar to COVID-19. The exercise paired 30 top Trump appointees, with their Obama counterparts, as they worked through the pandemic response.  Two thirds of those Trump appointees are gone.  Across the government Senate confirmed expertise, and next tier experienced bureaucrats, have been replaced with lackeys or not replaced at all.

For instance, the top level of Homeland Security, so crucial in a crisis looks like this:

Secretary (acting), Chad F. Wolf | Secretary's Corner

• Deputy Secretary (vacant), Ken Cuccinelli, Senior Official Performing the Duties of the Deputy Secretary
• Chief of Staff (acting), John Gountanis
• Executive Secretary (acting), Juliana Blackwell
• General Counsel (acting), Chad Mizelle
• Military Advisor, Rear Admiral Brendan C. McPherson

Trump has no government experience.  He has crafted an administration in his own image.  His choices come from central casting, and none are long lasting.

Misread

My career as an employment lawyer included cases of discrimination and sexual harassment.  Harassment cases were the most likely to have a kernel of truth.   Whether or not it met the bar for legal harassment, usually some act had occurred.  So my tendency is to give great credibility to a complaint.

Circulating on twitter, and in right wing media, is an allegation by a short term former Biden staffer, Tara Reade, that in 1993 she was digitally penetrated by the former Vice President.  Even with my tendency to credit such claims, this appears spurious.

In 2019 she had a column published in Medium about her mistreatment as a staffer for then Senator Joe Biden.  She claims that she was asked to be a cocktail server at a fundraiser, because Bidden though she had nice legs, but also noted she was cautioned not to dress sexy at the event.  More importantly, she repeated the often made complaints of non sexual touching, in this case of her shoulder and neck.

Markedly missing is the much more sexually explicit claim.  Certainly it is understandable and common for a woman to go many years before asserting a claim of harassment.  But quite unusual is to mention shoulder touching and leave out sexual assault.

The article is also ambiguous about whether she quit or was fired.  She vaguely implies that she complained, but is quite unclear whether she ever mentioned the touching.

In 2019 she remembered shoulder touching in 1993, but did not remember digital penetration until Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2020.

Also curiously she recently deleted her string of tweets which passionately embraced Putin and Russia.  Just a little suspicious.

High Sea Robbery

Carnival Corporation, owner of Carnival and Princess lines, wants to commit high sea robbery.  These petri dishes of the sea, pay nothing to you and me.  Below is a section from their financial filing know as a 10K.  They claim to be exempt from U.S. Taxes. Additionally all their ships fly foreign flags, and virtually no Americans work in their crews.  So if they pay no taxes to us, we should pay no tax payer funded bailout to them.

XX. Taxation
A summary of our principal taxes and exemptions in the jurisdictions where our significant operations are located is as follows:
a. U.S. Income Tax
We are primarily foreign corporations engaged in the business of operating cruise ships in international transportation. We also own and operate, among other businesses, the U.S. hotel and transportation business of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours through U.S. corporations.
Our North American cruise ship businesses and certain ship-owning subsidiaries are engaged in a trade or business within the U.S. Depending on its itinerary, any particular ship may generate income from sources within the U.S. We believe that our U.S. source income and the income of our ship-owning subsidiaries, to the extent derived from, or incidental to, the international operation of a ship or ships, is currently exempt from U.S. federal income and branch profit taxes.
Our domestic U.S. operations, principally the hotel and transportation business of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, are subject to federal and state income taxation in the U.S.

Time

Like a broken clock, even Trump can have a rare moment of inadvertent clarity.  Following his natural tendencies to exclude "the other," blocking flights from China was correct.  But it did not save lives.

Rather it bought us time, that could have been used to save lives.   Pandemics do not respect borders for long.  All experts warned it was coming.

We had time to buy, and develop, tests so the virus could be tracked, and its spread limited.  We had time to acquire masks and respirators.  We had time to build temporary  hospitals.

Instead, our president sold the time he bought at a loss.

Friendly Skies, Troubled Waters

Lobbyists are twinkling around the GOP stimulus Christmas Tree.  Some will shine bright, others must be turned off.

Airlines are essential, but cruise ships are not.  Airlines serve business as well as recreational needs.  Cruise ships are merely recreational.  Airlines employ Americans, by and large, cruise ships do not.  Working seven days a week, while squeezing into a shared bunk bed for nominal wages, has no 1st world takers.

The lights getting the juice must be visible.  The proposed bill includes 150 billion in discretionary  dollars.  Even if the GOP proposes on bended knee, we must say no.  Equally important, as with the 2008 bailout, a carefully appointed committee must approve all grants and loans.  Trump has the girth of Santa Claus, but not the equanimity.  

Nevada Debate Winners and Losers

WINNERS

Elizabeth Warren

In a New York minute she took the bloom off the billionaire ex-mayor.  She knew the abc's of nda's.  She was passionate and aggressive, arresting her downward spiral with a strong bid back into the top tier.

Joe Biden

Like Elizabeth, Joe needed to stop the bleeding.  Biden had his best debate, avoiding the destruction derby in the moderate lane.  Biden's early problems fueled the Bloomberg surge.  Bloomberg's collisions, cleared the path for Joe.

Bernie Sanders

His one note semi-socialist samba, remains atop the Democratic hit parade.  Like Dewars Scotch, Bernie never varies.  That was enough, on a night when Bloomberg drew the heat.  Bernie left the stage, relatively unscathed.  That is enough for the front runner.

LOSERS

Mike Bloomberg

As a technocrat, debating has never been a strength. But on Wednesday he was clearly not ready for prime time.  A record 20 million viewers tuned in to see the man behind the ads.  He looked like New Coke.  Well promoted, but not a keeper.  No doubt all his well shod horses, and well paid men will be able to put his image back together again.  A few hundred million in ads can save the day, provided he does not lay an egg in the next debate.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar

Pete wove his usual word spell.  Amy had grit and wit.  But the fight between the two, usually polite Midwesterners, was to the detriment of both.  They are drawing from the same pool of voters.  Their tiff could have a few voters swimming away.

Tom Steyer 

Out of sight, out of mind.  Failing to qualify, nullified the opportunity fo show 20 million viewers that he is the good billionaire.

New Hampshire Winners and Losers

Winners

Amy Klobuchar

She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates.  But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing.  She rocked the Granite State.

Pete Buttigieg

Double the pleasure, double the fun.  After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates.  His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.

Losers

Elizabeth Warren

Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night.  She entered the primary with major advantages.  Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market.  So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known.  Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.

She has no obvious path forward.  She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire.  Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy.  Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party.  Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy.  To date that is a road less traveled.

Joe Bidden

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls.  Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.

As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment.  In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump.  But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward.  If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.

Bernie Sanders

Yes, he won.  Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa.  Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination.  But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar.  As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory.  In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent.  The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.

But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy.  Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women.  The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young.  Young  voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016.  Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.

The Dropouts

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire.  Neither did well enough to stay in the race.  I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration.  We need a futurist.

Profiles in Cowardice

The New Testament Sentiment, "Forgive them, they know not what they do," does not apply to Republican legislators.  Not even Christian charity permits deriding GOP Senators and Congressman as merely ignorant. With few exceptions, attaining legislative office requires above average intelligence.

No, the GOP is knowingly counting down the end of the American Century.  Starting with the Marshal Plan and continuing with NATO, America has preached from the pulpit with its economic, moral and military superiority.  Congregants sang our hymn.  Allies enjoyed stability, and America prospered.

Trump, in ways both large and small, with GOP acquiescence, has emptied the pews.   On the micro level, Trump's disdain has crippled the State Department.  The ranks have not been decimated, for that is a mere drop of 10%.  Rather nearly 50% of the top two tiers of department professionals have departed.  Institutional knowledge is gone, phones go unanswered.  Opportunities are lost, international respect vanishes.  As in a horse, these micro fractures may go undiagnosed, but eventually lead to unsoundness and even the loss of life.

On the macro scale, an unfettered Trump, is shunning the support of our allies, and instead courting authoritarian regimes.  Many believe the reason is Trump's authoritarian tendencies.  That may have an influence, but the full truth is more dire.  Authoritarians can, by fiat, satisfy Trump's greed, liberal democracies have procedural guard rails.  Saudi Arabia has loaned hundreds of millions to Trump and  to the Kushners.  China has awarded Ivanka valuable trademarks.  Perhaps to launder money, Russian oligarchs have been prime purchasers of Trump properties.

Where greed leaves off, ignorance takes the floor.  Tump is a one man Know Nothing Party, ignoring briefings and rational analysis in favor of impulse.

Republican officeholders know Trump's failings, but would rather creep to reelection than stand tall.

Points of View

Susan Rice was fried, when the Benghazi talking points she faithfully recited needed to be, and were, corrected one week later.   She did not lie.  The error did no harm.

The killing of Soleimani is different.  Unless, he is totally deranged, Trump knows why he authorized the strike.  So every statement from the administration that Soleimani was behind an imminent threat was a lie, damaging our standing in the world.  A few Republicans have stepped out of line, but in the main they goose-step behind their lying leader.

The new rationale for the killing of an official of a sovereign state is that he was responsible for the killing of Americans.  Yes, we can repeat the litany that Soleimani was a bad man.  But the Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia ordered the slicing and dicing of a Washington Post correspondent.  Are we justified in taking him out?

Trump has made it clear that his main concern in the region is oil.  So is Iran so unreasonable, to take the position that the US is an invading force, after the region's resources?  From that perspective Soleimani is a general, with inferior forces, using guerrilla, and admittedly terrorist tactics, to repel an occupying army.

Now let us switch to the Kurdish perspective.  Imagine you are a young Kurd.  Your father died fighting ISIS in support of American interests.  Your brother was killed by the Turks as Trump summarily gave away your land and your home.  You and your mother now live hand to mouth in a refuge camp.  Would you be justified in killing our President, because he was responsible for the death of many of your people, and the loss of your homeland?