Cold Turkey

I am not referring to recently  defrosted leftovers.  This political junkie has turned off the TV, interred the internet, for fear of a soul deadening overdose of our strutting president elect.

Not even a long planned trip to China, inoculated me.  Our bull in the China shop called the president of Taiwan, whether out of ignorance, pursuit of business, or as a policy switch.

But the Temple of Heaven, and other sights to be covered in a future post, were a welcome distraction.

On another international note, my Cuba guidebook, 4 Americans in Cuba, is at ebookit for digital conversion and distribution.  Look for it in the 1st quarter of 2017 at an ebook retailer near you.

As we careen towards the holiday season, never has goodwill to all been more important.

Respect

The media and the political establishment have not taken Donald Trump seriously.  He is the president elect.  The condescension must stop.  He deserves to be held to the same high standard as other presidential candidates, let alone as the president elect.

Conflict of interest is a stunning example.  Under sustained pressure from left, right and mainstream media, as well as a broad spectrum of politicians, Hillary was forced to commit to divesting the family charitable foundation.  In the interim foreign and corporate contributions, were curtailed.  This is a foundation that has saved thousands of lives, and helped millions.  None of the Clintons received any compensation from the foundation.

Contrast this with the far flung Trump business empire.  Rather than building a wall along our southern border, he should build a Chinese wall between himself and the business.  Instead his laughable plan is to have his children run the business.  Going for an even bigger laugh, he has made his children special advisors to the president with top secret clearance.  They also serve on the transition team, staffing the new administration.

The potential for conflicts is legion.  Suppose they lack their father's golden touch.  In return for investment capital or a favorable loan from foreign player, they influence policy.  To gain access corporations need only agree to hold a major conference at a Trump property.

Good times are no shield.  The most insidious threat is trading state secrets for financial advantage.  Suppose they meet with Russian officials as representatives of our government.  At the same time they ask for favorable terms, on building a hotel in Moscow.

Holding President Trump to a high ethical standard is not an attack, but rather appropriate respect for the office of the presidency.

Dropping Out of College

Americans voting for a candidate that they know has neither the qualifications, nor the temperament  to be president, tore my heart out.  I may be blogging more about food and travel, than politics, while I shake it off.

Trump is now my president, and I must hope for his success,  Maybe he will surround himself with wise people who will appeal to his better angels.  If not, we will redouble our efforts to elect a Democratic Senate in 2018, and to replace him in 2020.

 Until then, we should work to eliminate the electoral college.  My plea is not because Hillary won the popular vote, but because we need to come together and be united states.  Candidates should be talking to us all, not only to voters in 13 or 15 highly contested states.  My vote in California should matter as much as that of my friend in Florida.

My vote is already devalued by California having the same number of Senators as a less populous state like Montana.  At least my vote for president should have meaning.

Final Prediction

Momentum has swung back to Hillary.  Surrogates and volunteers are powering up, as the election winds down.

Hillary will win at the high end of current surveys, 6 percentage points.  Her electoral total will be above 339.

Democrats will narrowly capture the Senate.  House pickups will be in the mid to high teens.

Let me know your predictions.

Broken Promises

No one would accuse Donald Trump of being a policy wonk.  His proposals are thin and wobbly.  He is asking for a blank check.  Does he deserve our trust?

Past behavior is the best indicator of future conduct.  Trump's life is an amalgam of broken promises. Least important is his contempt for his marriage vows.  He publicly cheated on his first two wives, and apparently, has cheated on Melania, as well.

More meaningful is his business conduct.  Stripped of legalese, a contract at its core is a written promise.  Trump has consistently ignored obligations to pay vendors and their workers.  These are the very small business owners and blue collar workers who make up his coalition.  Be assured he is no more likely to keep the promises he makes to his voters, than he was to honor contracts with his vendors.

A man with charity in his heart can be trusted.  As the Washington Post established, Trump and his foundation made many promises, but never wrote the checks.

Nothing is worth more than a man's good name.  Trump carelessly sold his to underfunded developers that never broke ground, dashing the retirement plans of thousands.

Most damning of all is Trump University and Trump Institute.  Trump failed to deliver the promise of a better future for his students, just as he will fail to provide a better future for Americans.

Mighty Pen

On Monday Pennsylvania will be the epicenter of the political world.  The Clintons and Obamas will share the stage before thousands.  Is Hillary afraid of losing this Democratic stronghold?

The answer is nuanced.  With Comey incompetently skewing the race, the polls have tightened.  Trump's campaign can count to 270.  The swing states are not enough.  They need a blue state.  Thinking he is the WD 40 for the rustbelt, Trump is making a big push in Pennsylvania and Michigan.

But the main reason is structural.  Pennsylvania has virtually no early voting.  In preserving her blue wall, Hillary has focused on early voting states.  Now to close the door on Trump, she is making a  big entrance in a state that has yet to cast votes.

While Trumpets shout, "Lock her up," she is locking down the presidency.

3 Points and a Cloud of Dust

Time to grind it out.  A good ground game can be worth up to 3 points.  Three points is enough to give Hillary a safe lead.

In early voting states, surrogates systematically speak near voting sites.  Canvassing is the spear tip on the polling data, to get out the first time ,or occasional voter.  The low lying voters can be harvested on election day.

Obamacare premium increases and Comey coming hither, have us rooting for the grass roots.  Knock, knock is no joke.

48 Hour FBI Flu

Giving Comey the benefit of the doubt that he might be acting in good faith, we will have this email wrapped up in two days.  The task is simpler than before.

First isolate all emails from Clinton to Huma Abedin.  Next cross reference against any emails from Clinton to Abedin on Hillary's server.  Eliminate all duplicates.  Review the remainder, if any.

If Comey drags this on beyond the election, he may be willfully violating the Hatch Act.

Clinton Innocence Reinforced

Comey has shown his true color, pachyderm grey.  Inserting himself into the election, against protocol, is as clear cut, as his letter is ambiguous.

Now that we know his bias, we can reexamine his decision to not prosecute.   The case was so clear cut he had no option.  The only thing he could do as a partisan, was to issue a harsh statement, once again violating protocol.  If a self serving, GOP leaning hack, cleared her, someone more objective might have given her a medal.

Phony Comey

Comey covered his ass, while splitting the nation down the middle.  He wants to be a boy scout, dutifully reporting to Congress.  Looking good is not the same as doing good.  For an FBI Director country must come before self.

Comey violated FBI and Justice department protocol by discussing an investigation, without even knowing if material evidence exists.  Clinton is placed in a false bad light, with no illumination.  As a general matter this is unethical--11 days before and election it is unconscionable.

2020

This election pivots on Clinton's attacks on Trump's temperament, and Trump foaming at the mouth to prove her point.  The result should be satisfying, the process, not so much.

For 2020 I am wishing for wonks.  Clinton and Ryan are policy wonks.  After bathing in dirty water, a shower of competing ideas might cleanse our national soul.

Empathy

The classic polling question is does the candidate care about people like you?  Today Trump sharply answered that question in word and deed.

At one of his properties, he gathered employees as a backdrop for a photo op, treating them as a mere prop.  He railed that his employees suffered from costly and inadequate health benefits because of the failures of Obamacare.

His employees may well have inadequate health care coverage.  But it would be under a Trump company plan, not Obamacare.  Trump neither knows, nor cares about the medical coverage for his employees.  If he does not care about his own employees,  can he really care about you or me?

Trump Admits Defeat

For more than a decade, Trump's greatest asset has not been his golden towers, but rather his media enhanced name.  Boffo and bunko businesses alike, have paid dearly for his imprimatur.

Now even the great orange one, has admitted defeat,  dumping his name.  Future projects will shimmer with Scion, not tumble with Trump.  The Trump name is toxic, with occupancy rates tumbling 30% in an up market.

Feel the pain, the loss of power,
when they shun your name,
even at, Trump Tower

Rigged Election

Donald Trump is right that the election is rigged, while yet being so wrong.  If rigged means one party gets more votes, but loses, than the Congressional election is rigged.  Over each of the last three cycles, Democrats in the aggregate, have gotten more votes than Republicans, yet have lost the House by increasing numbers.

The GOP brilliantly focused on state houses leading up to the 2010 census.  The reapportionment all but assured a Republican majority.  As this campaign season draws to a close President Obama is launching campaign ads for up to 150 state legislative candidates.  Fair elections may be in the offing.

The presidential race receives too much bipartisan scrutiny for systemic fraud.  But it is a race you cannot expect to win if you run an ass against a thoroughbred.

Going All in on Las Vegas

Yesterday was the start of early voting in Nevada.  The Clinton campaign is all in.  Bus loads of Californians have been joining Nevada volunteers to register voters.  Now with a favorable electorate in place, a record number of California volunteers boarded buses and drove their cars to storm the citadel of Las Vegas.  The clarion call even reached two delightful women from Idaho who drove 10 hours to support the campaign.

The goal of GOTV, particularly in an early voting state, is to go after first time, and irregular voters.  Ripe low lying fruit will fall with only a slight nudge. At the top, each vote must be carefully picked. Roslyn and I, had very positive responses to our canvassing.   Every voter we contacted had a plan in place to vote early.  Each voter was also supporting Catherine Cortez Masto  to succeed Harry Reid, for the hotly contested Senate seat.  To seal the deal, Obama is in Las Vegas today.

The air war is as intense as that on the ground.  Denizens of Las Vegas are longing for Charmin ads.  On local stations, every commercial break is filled with 5 or more political ads.  How will they know which beer to drink?

Imagine

Imagine a TV network that makes Fox News look like the Disney channel, like Rush Limbaugh on steroids, or whatever currently is his drug of choice.  Imagine conspiracy theories basking in widely viewed glory, threatening the public discourse, and the civility that sustains democracy.   As John Lennon said, "It's not very hard to do."

Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is presently seeking funding for the venture.  He is aided by former Fox News executive, and lecher in chief, Roger Aisles, as well as Steve Bannon, of Breitbart infamy.

Time to stop imagining, and to do something.  Defeating Trump is not enough.  The loss must be resounding, like the opening notes of Beethoven's Fifth.  Winning is the Trump brand, losing badly could scuttle it, and render pathetic any discussion of a rigged election.

The personal conscience, informal boycott of Trump properties, must take on all the formality and glittery perfection of a ball gown.  Finally, on social media millions must make it clear we will also boycott anyone connected with, or advertising on such a network.

If we do it right, while he is busy talking about grabbing women, we will have him by the balls.

Carpe Diem

Before Trump, the mantra of every campaign was seize the day.  Whether by policy initiative, photo op or attack line, win every news cycle.  But as the Trump campaign is hell bound on hitting the gas and pounding into the wall, Hillary is stepping out of the way and out of the day.

Other than picking up a few checks, she has gone silent.  She is prepping, getting her nails done, taking a nap, watching soaps, anything but make news.

Campaigning can be relaxing when you run against a crash dummy.

Slim Chance

Carlos Slim is Trump's latest conspiracy fetish.   The name Carlos Slim, conjures a possible finalist in a poker world championship in Las Vegas.  In actuality, he is a Mexican business man so wealthy, that by comparison, Trump is one of the striking housekeepers at the Trump International Las Vegas Hotel.

Carlos Slim has given more to charity than Trump's total net worth.  He has opened a stunning museum, with free admission, that I visited in the Polanco section of Mexico City.  He has given over 4 billion dollars to the Gates foundation, and yes, he has contributed to the Clinton Foundation.

The lynchpin for Donald, is that one of Slim's thinner investments is in the New York Times.  Therefore, using Trumptilian logic, Carlos Slim is the spearhead of an international conspiracy to slander The Donald with accusations of sexual assault.

Donald, don't flatter yourself.  Carlos has less concern for you than you have for the well being of the housekeepers in your hotels.

Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

Trump is behind with 26 days to go before the election.  He needs each news cycle to be lead by either his signature issues, trade and immigration, or a reverberating attack on Hillary.  Each day devoted to his feud with Ryan or his groping of women, is at best a wasted day.  Even if those stories do not hurt his chances, and they should, they suck away his time.

While Trump fumes and dithers, Hillary is employing her strong ground game to bank ballots in early voting swing states.  If she still has a significant lead at the end of this month, we can begin popping corks.

Raising Arizona

Trump has again dumped on the character of the senior Senator from Arizona.  He deserves a McCaining.  Barring that, Arizonians should rise up to put Trump down.    He cannot win without Arizona.  Early voting starts today.

Vote!

Early voting starts today in Indiana, Ohio, and Arizona.  Voting started yesterday in New Mexico.  If you live in one of those states please vote.  If you have friends in any of the early voting states, urge them to vote.  Thanks.

Lining Out

When clueless on how to cut costs, politicians fall back on certain buzz words.  Listen for them.  The most common is fraud and waste.  No one favors fraud and waste.  The low lying fruit has already been picked.  The rest is usually insignificant or intractable.

Trump uses buzz words to hide his lack of a plan to replace Obamacare.  The first is block grants, which he would give to the states to help those unable to afford medical insurance.  That is just kicking the can to the states, without a solution or accountability.  The hidden subtext is always that the block grants will be less than the amount currently allocated.  This only lowers costs by reducing benefits.

The trickier buzz word is competition.  Some proposals actually lower costs.  Trump's does not.  His plan to eliminate state lines for medical plans lines out.  The product is local.  The networks of doctors and hospitals do not change.  Because the product is the same the costs will not alter significantly.  The insurance companies still have to contract with the same hospitals and physicians.  The only possible impact would be in towns like Kansas City that straddle two states.

If we are paying attention, we won't swing at Trump's pitch.

Ptomaine Trump

Tonight Trump threw tainted red meat to his ravenous base.  He will put Hillary in jail, Bill does the terrible sexual things that Trump only talks about, Benghazi, and e-mails.  He was much better than in the first debate, which is like saying there were only a few cases of food poisoning.

He aggressively stalked Hillary all over the stage, but had little to show for it.  While his base was busily devouring his every word, undecided voters were looking to see what else was on the menu.

Nothing he said reassured suburban women.  Conservatives nibbling on the Pence fantasy, put down their forks when the VP nominee became roadkill.   Pence was not only wrong on Syria, Trump did not consider him worth consulting.

Hillary was calmer, more presidential.  She won on substance and on style.  Trump was unappetizing to a majority of the electorate before and after the debate.

Friends and Neighbors

Here is the ultimate test for undecided voters, or soft supporters.  Make a list of 5 friends and 5 neighbors.  Of those 10 people how many would be a better, safer choice for president than Donald Trump?

Unless you live in a think tank, policy depth will not be a strong suit for your list.  But policy is not a strong suit for Trump.  You expect your friends and neighbors would surround themselves with talented advisors, as you would hope the same for Trump.  But temperament is the deciding factor.  Everyone on my list has greater impulse control than Trump.

Now compare Hillary to your list.  You may find her too liberal, or conversely too tied to Wall Street. But she knows more about policy than anyone on your list.  She is steady.  She should be our next president.

MisReed

Ralph Reed has long been the political baby face of the conservative evangelical movement.  He is sticking with Trump, because "His support is not about shared values, but shared issues."

Have evangelical leaders sold their souls?  If the evangelical movement does not stand for values, what is its purpose?  

Cart Before the Horse

The presidential candidate is usually the work horse pulling the party forward with a strong ground game.  Clinton, like Obama before her, has filled the battlegrounds with field offices and staff.  This may be most meaningful for the bottom of the ballot, state legislative races.

The least financed races benefit most, from efforts at the top.  Trump is running a very different campaign.  Rather than pulling the load, he is asking the local and state party apparatus to push him forward.  He has outsourced the ground game to them.

Well financed Senate and Gubenatorial races, may be able to pick up the slack.  But Democrats should see a resurgence in state houses, which down the road, will help with redistricting.

Lost in the Cornfields

The election may already be over.  Even if Trump plows through electorally rich Ohio and Florida, and pulls out Nevada and North Carolina, he needs Iowa's 6 electoral votes to get to the magic number of 270.

Before the presidential debate he had a slight lead in the Iowa polls, but not enough staff to harvest votes.  Early voting started in late September.   Clinton's likely post debate upsurge, coupled with her ground game, means that her early bird may have already caught the worm.

Needle in Neutral

The debate went much as I predicted in my prior post.  Pence was dollars ahead on style.  His talk show experience was evident.  On that front Kaine was worse than I expected.  His stock in trade is likability.  As a good soldier he aggressively charged forward in a way that some, such as Biden, can bring off, but not Kaine. He was ill served by the campaign.

Not unexpectedly, even with a CNN poll that had more Democratic respondents, Pence won 48 to 42.  But Kaine, who lost the battle, may yet win the war.  Pence was calm and presidential.   Many in the GOP may take some solace about the bottom of their ticket, and even envision him as a future nominee.  Pence helped Pence.

Pence was not a good soldier.  He was too busy bucking for a promotion.  He did little to defend Trump.  Denying he or Trump made various statements, helped sweeten his night, but will sour the day.  He lied.  Every crazy statement Kaine attributed to Trump was true and verifiable.  Pence's hawkish foreign policy positions were inconsistent with the belligerent dove, at the top of the ticket.

Pence won the night on style points, Kaine will edge him tomorrow on truth and substance.  The result will be no change, which is good for Hillary.

Bottoms Up

Tonight Mike Pence has key superficial advantages.  He is better looking, has a more sonorous voice, and based on years as a talk show host, a smoother delivery.  But he is at a substantive disadvantage.  The top of the ticket, who he must defend, is a bottom feeder.

Kaine is likable, and has less ground to defend.  At the end of the night, I doubt the needle will move.

Her Own Private Iowa

Iowa is a demographic diaspora for Hillary.  The state has virtually no minorities, and less than a quarter of the population has a college education.

But with the early voting window open, light is shining through.  No post debate polls have dropped, but her numbers must be at, or near, a high point.  She may have the state largely to herself.  She has the larger organization and hordes of surrogates to get out the vote.

Hillary may steal Iowa while Trump tweets.

Millennial Madness

Working class Americans have often voted against their economic interest, lured by a GOP cynical clarion call on social issues.  Sadly millennials are falling into a similar trap.  Their purity of purpose is sullying their future.

The most recent poll has millennials at 31% for Clinton, 29% for Johnson and 26% for Trump.  Now lets look at positions on key issues.

Favors government action on Climate Change:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Debt Free College Tuition:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Raising Minimum Wage:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Displayed Foreign Policy Knowledge:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No

Johnson does win on one.
Legalizing Marijuana:  Clinton--No, Johnson--Yes, Trump--No

So millennials, I  have one question.  What have you been smoking?

Implosion

For 16 months we have all wondered, when will it end?  Lies have grown.  Trump's pivot to 1950s America, has made racism fashionable again.  As he oozes bad taste and inherited wealth, he is a self proclaimed working man's hero.

Today may be the day.  Multiple Trump misdeeds are competing for air time.  His foundation illegally accepted contributions, because it was not registered in New York.  As a corollary it failed to file required annual reports.  His starchy pro Cuban embargo stance is fatally softened by his own violations.  He illegally financed a trip by consultants to explore the possibility of  a Trump Casino in Havana.  He may get taken to the cleaners in must win Florida.

His always warm and fuzzy children, are concerned the direction of the campaign may hurt the Trump business that they are poised to inherit.  Money is thicker than blood.  Don't mess with our billions, Daddy.

For the first time in its history USA Today entered the fray.  Without endorsing an alternative, the editorial board concluded that Trump is unacceptable.  Never before has a major party candidate failed to garner a single endorsement from a big city paper.  Another black mark for Trump.

The LA Times reported, that in sworn testimony, Trump managers and employees declared that Trump wanted to fire overweight female employees, at his golf course club house.  They had to hide the heavy set from The Donald.  As a corollary, testimony confirms that he used an attractive employee as a prop to impress his male guests.

The LA Times story dovetails nicely with the Alicia Machado story that Trump has triple downed on.  His attack on the Clinton's as sleazy, sounds odd, as he tweets about sex tapes in the early morning hours.

Not So Rosie

Trump's campaign manager, Kellyanne Conway specializes in pairing women voters with unlikely Republican suitors.  She knew it was a tough night when she heard her candidate pull Rosie O'Donnell out of the ether.  That Rosie deserved it, was not a stirring defense to comparing women to various domestic and barnyard animals.

Conway's horrors continued.  After spending the night sniffling, snorting, yelling and interrupting,  Trump's effusive praise of his own temperament provoked uncontrollable laughter, from an audience admonished to show no reactions.  Hillary, always in control, merely smiled.  In fact she smiled through most of the last hour of the debate, watching her opponent flounder.

The coup de gras was Trump, under attack for his prior sexist statements that Hillary did not look presidential, pivoting to the only slightly less misogynistic claim, that she lacked stamina.  The statement was juxtaposed with Trump's tank running out of gas.  His national security rants were rambling, babbling brooks of incoherence.  He had neither the emotional, physical nor intellectual stamina to go ninety minutes with Hillary.

Kellyanne rushed to the spin room to attempt to repair the irreparable.

Change

Pundits mouth the mantra:  This is a change election.  Lost in the mystic mumbling is the change still in the tank of the Obama/Clinton agenda.  Obama inherited a capsized kayak of state.  He had to flip it over before he could move it forward.  Rowing against a strong Republican current has been slow and hard.

Hillary is best suited to make a progressive push forward.  Change is legislation passed, regulations implemented, modified or eliminated.  As a successful Senator and a policy wonk she has the chops to get us to the left bank.

But, particularly for millennials, the most important change, is climate change.  When we boomers are six feet underground, they may be six feet under water.  Trump is a climate denier.  Gary Johnson is a policy denier.  Libertarians want to let the market decide.  You may not like big oil's decisions.  The Green Party, bless their hearts, spent two hours at their convention on breathing exercises.  If you care about breathing clean air, drinking pure water, and tackling global warming, join every major environmental group in supporting Hillary.

Blind Trust

Hillary Clinton has been forced to agree, that if elected, her entire family would have no interaction with the Clinton Foundation.  The premise is that people who donate to help millions fight aides and malaria, might be given favorable treatment during a Clinton administration, even though the Clintons receive no financial benefit.

Trump obviously benefits directly from his businesses.  Although his refusal to release his tax returns has shrouded his business interests, no one doubts extensive foreign ties, as well as foreign made ties.  He is believed to have loans from German and Chinese banks as well as investments from Russian Oligarchs.  He manufacturers products overseas, and has projects in other countries.  Unlike the Clinton Foundation, his businesses pose a direct conflict of interest.  If Hillary cannot have Bill and Chelsea run the foundation, how has Trump been allowed to skate with his proposal to turn over running the business to his children?

Where is the outrage?  Calls for a blind trust must be strident and continuous.

Quote of the Day from Political Wire

Quote of the Day

September 9, 2016By Taegan Goddard33 Comments

“Other than destroying every instrument of democracy in his own country, having opposition people killed, dismembering neighbors through military force and being the benefactor of the butcher of Damascus, he’s a good guy. This calculation by Trump unnerves me to my core.”

— Sen. Lindsey Graham, quoted by Politico, on Donald Trump’s embrace of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

A Tale of Two Foundations

Charitable contributions provide a peak into a candidate's heart.  The Clintons gave 10% of their income to the Clinton Foundation according to their tax returns.  Based on good works done, and low overhead, independent reviews of the Clinton Foundation place it in the top tier of charities, along with the Salvation Army and the Red Cross. The foundation has saved thousands of lives by providing treatment for AIDS and other diseases.

Trump has not disclosed his tax returns.  But according to the Washington Post, and other news sources, his giving has been meagre, particularly for a self proclaimed billionaire.  His foundation is a case in point.  He has not contributed to it for years.  Just like his use of campaign funds to buy his own books, he has used foundation funds for his own benefit.  He has spoken loudly at silent auctions.  Among the items he has bought are Tim Tebow memorabilia, and a date with Salma Hayek.

Currently Hillary's meetings with top donors to the Clinton Foundation is a cause celeb.  Giving millions to a charity is like flying first class.  You don't go any farther or faster than coach, but you get some perks.  The perk used to help millions, and save the lives of thousands, was access.  Donors were made to feel important.  But nothing has shown, that they got farther or faster.  The greater scandal is Trump using his foundation for his own benefit.

Manafort Overboard

Trump now has a campaign manager who can whisper sweet somethings on the plane, but plainly has never run a campaign.  Bannon Breitbartesque banners, will blister the airwaves with bile.  Trump will be teleprompted to nowhere.

Meanwhile, Manafort has been forcefully thrown into the last remaining lifeboat.  A true political operative lands on his feet, even when the ship is going down.

Claustrophobia

With reliance on Aisles, formerly of FOX News, and the  hiring of Steve Bannon of Breitbart News, Trump's plan is clear.  His team knows he has a lower ceiling than Hillary, but hopes he has a higher floor.  This will not be a campaign of persuasion, but rather a cramped war of attrition.

Trump will not broaden his base, but instead will saw away at Hillary's weakest support.  He wins by building the vote for 3rd party candidates, and decreasing turnout.  His attacks will be so vicious, and unfounded, that he will expand his already high negatives.  He does not care.  As he has said, "I could stand in the middle of 5th Avenue and shoot somebody and I wouldn't lose voters."

To stop the insanity, we need to raise the roof.  We need to solidify Hillary's wall of support, or risk a wall of intolerance.

Pearly Gates

Trump is more a fan of gold, but I doubt he has objections to pearls.  But the pearly gates may have objections to him.  Forget Hillary's shading of the truth, and Trump's braggadocio.  Forget her pant suits, and his hair.  Focus on the test that matters.  Have they each helped more people than they have hurt?   Is the world better because of them?

The answer is easy for Hillary.  As an attorney, and as first lady, in Arkansas and in the White House, she championed the cause of women and children.  As a Senator she worked to help New York rebuild after 9/11, and particularly worked on behalf of first responders.  GOP senators satisfying their base by vilifying Hillary, privately, and not so privately, admit they can work with her.  As a Senator she reached across the aisle.  Because of Bill's charisma, friends of Bill has become a catch phrase.  But her friendships are more telling.  At the convention we heard from a few.  She has long and deep friendships.  The kind that only endure by caring and listening.

The case for Trump is far less secure.  His life has featured self promotion, whether about his love life in his youth, or his business acumen in later years.  His goal has been to retain, and sometimes expand, the fortune left to him by his father.  His business dealings have spawned thousands of law suits.  He has used financial leverage to beat down vendors.  Employees and other stakeholders have suffered the costs of his bankruptcies, while he has bragged that he profited.  Trump has indiscriminately sold his name to scammers.  Thousands have lost all, or much of their life savings, through Trump Institute, Trump University, and numerous condominium projects that never broke ground.  Where are his life long friends?

Both Trump and Clinton have foundations.  With all the hyperbole around hers, it is easy to forget that it is a charitable foundation that does good works.  The Clinton tax returns show a pattern of donating roughly 10% of their income.  Media reports that Trump has stiffed his foundation since 2008.

Finally there are the campaigns.  A candidate cannot be blamed for who choses to support him.  But there is a reason that Trump has been endorsed by the American Nazi party, former Ku Klux Klan leader, David Duke, and various white supremacist groups.  From his birther attacks on Obama, through his immigration polices,  his campaign is about fearing and hating "the other."  It will not go down in history as a great campaign slogan, but Hillary's "Stronger Together," stands in stark contrast.

Buyer's Remorse

In 1980, I held a paid staff position in Congressman John Anderson's independent presidential run.  Eager for a fresh face and new policies, the press bought into our fledgling campaign.  Our poll numbers crept north of 20%, and had us in the lead, or within the margin of error, in a few states.

Newness only lasts so long.  Soon the press was in the Costco return line.  We finished with 6.1% of the vote.  The only magic left was that 6.1%  qualified for federal campaign funds under public financing.  We staffers got long delayed pay.

Trump received the most pre and primary coverage according to Harvard studies.  His coverage was far more favorable than that of Hillary.  As with Anderson, buyer's remorse has set in.  Trump's desperate need for attention, while at the same time vilifying the press, has exacerbated  his media meltdown.  Reporters are not waiting in the return line.  They are dumping Trump in the nearest editorial receptacle.

Live by the pen, die by the pen.  All that twitters is not gold.

An Ego All a Twitter

Pundits pulsate that Hillary wins if the election is about Trump, and Trump wins if he can make the election about her.  But Tump and Hillary agree.  He wants the election to be about him, and so does she.  He prefers news that is rotten, than to be forgotten.

Hillary's paid media paints him as too dangerous to be trusted.  Better yet, like Tom Sawyer, she has convinced Trump to finish the job.  Painted into a corner, Trump has only one way to escape.  Carter successfully portrayed Reagan as dangerous until the first debate.  Reagan was reasonable and presidential.  Paid media never wins if it conflicts with free media.  Reagan won.

Trump is no Reagan.  Reagan was comfortable in his own skin.  Trump's skin is too thin, to reign in, his festering ego.

Moves After Dark

Roslyn and I attended "Moves After Dark" at the Music Center, courtesy of our good friend, Nina.

We were treated to four dance programs, each in an unusual venue.  The first and our favorite, was in the seats of the Dorothy Chandler Pavilion, with us watching from in front of the stage.  By crawling between the seats, dancers magically appeared, and regrouped.

The second dance was on the staircase of the Pavilion.  The costumes and rhythms were Brazilian, but the dance included commentary on Black Lives Matter.

The third dance was in the fountains of Grand Park, close to City Hall.

The final performance was outdoors at the Music Center.

Trump Shows His True Colors

Orange may indeed be the new black.  At least for our orange tinted titan, whose tax plan promises to keep his coterie of billionaires in the black.  His recycled plan, the only type of recycling he approves, will lower  corporate tax rates to 15% and individual rates to 33%.  The richest will save millions, the rest will be saddled with program cut backs, and/or run away deficits.

The tax deduction for child care is too cute by half.  The CEO with a house in the Hamptons, will have a 50% reduction in her effective cost of child care.  The struggling single mother, working two minimum wage jobs, will get no benefit.

For the working poor, trickle down economics is Chinese water torture.

Rams Practice August 2

Traveled to Irvine to see the Rams practice.  First over all pick Jared Goff, number 16, had a good practice, with a few rookie mistakes.  The Hard Knocks Crew was filming.  Enjoy the pictures.