Wayne LaPierre Wimps Out

Speaking on behalf of the NRA, Wayne LaPierre, proclaimed that the answer to gun violence, is more guns.  What a liberal weenie.  The correct answer is many more guns.  The NRA proposes an armed police officer at every school, at a nominal projected cost of 6.6 billion per year.  While admittedly there is nothing more heartwarming, and freedom affirming, than 6 year olds being greeted by an AR-15 each morning, it is not enough.

Left out our Sunday school classes, other religious instruction, and, most importantly, home schooling.  Nor are those the only sources of education.  Armed guards should patrol Sesame Street and take residence in Mr. Roger's Neighborhood.

Mr. LaPierre advised that the only solution to a bad man with a gun is a good man with one.  But Mr. LaPierre is too modest about the NRA's role in this near biblical battle between good and evil.  For while Wayne's speech waxed eloquent about evil and deranged men with guns, he failed to take credit for the impediments to background checks successfully sponsored by the NRA.

The Gun Lobby: Principled Paranoia (redux)

The senseless deaths in Newtown may, at long last, renew the debate over gun control.  With that hope, I  reoffer this post from  July 25.


The Gun Lobby: Principled Paranoia

Gun ownership is enshrined in the Second Amendment.  For women, the right to bear arms predates the right to bare arms.

Americans resoundingly, if not universally, agree that hunters should be able to purchase rifles, and that all, who believe the risk of criminal assault exceeds the danger of accidental discharge, may buy a pistol for self protection.

Gun control legislation consistent with this consensus, would ban automatic and semi-automatic weapons, as well as custom magazines that may chamber as many as 90 rounds.  James Holmes would not be able to purchase enough rounds online, to slaughter the entire deer population of North America.  An efficient and interconnected federal, state and local data base would track such purchases, as well as, multiple gun purchases.  Better background checks would be possible through shared information.

But legislation is prevented by a fringe phalanx that is locked and loaded by the NRA.  America is a long standing democracy with an intricate system of checks and balances.   But some believe that the federal government is, or about to become, a gestapo trampling on their rights.  They reason that only a well armed citizen militia can protect freedom and liberty.   Gun control is held hostage, by this well financed minority.

If the inmates are allowed to run the asylum, we should at least ensure that they do not have assault rifles.

Romney Can't Get No Respect

Even bank robbers trifle with Mitt.  A bank robber in Virginia wore a Romney mask.  The cruel blow was the accompanying Florida State sweat shirt, representing the state Romney needed, and was expected, to win.

A Romney spokesperson took solace that a plurality of customers recognized the former candidate.  The other top contenders were, Ronald Reagan, Brian Williams and Ed McMahon.  One stunned customer exclaimed, "I finally know how Romney intends to pay for the tax cuts."

Let's Get Fiscal

Although Boehner will delay at the mouth, mouthing off to assuage the conservative base, he must cave.  Democrats have a mandate.  The talk of a close election was not echoed in the results.

Romney received just 47% of the vote.  That is the floor with a polarized electorate.  He only won blue states, and two states with a slight purple fringe.  Democrats, and independents who caucus with them, won 25 of the 33 contested Senate seats.  Democrats did not gain enough house seats to take control, but nationally got more votes. 

Obama's political advantage is matched by his strategic edge.  The Bush tax cuts expire at the end of the year.  The once formidable Grover Norquist, is now running around calling people poopie heads.  It makes me yearn for profanity.

Obama may allow Boehner to save face, but will still take his pound of flesh.

Against the Grain

Skewering Rice is impractical as well as unseemly.  The grains scatter to no good purpose.  The sole consequence of her reliance on intelligence community approved talking points, was that for one week, some members of the public thought that Benghazi was part of the spontaneous reaction to an anti-Muslim video that swept through much of the Muslim world.  As material became correlated and declassified, the misstatements were corrected.

Susan Rice's Sunday show segments had no policy implications, and resulted in neither loss of property, nor loss of life.  Her namesake, Condoleezza Rice, committed a more consequential error, but has been given a non-presidential pardon by Senator McCain.

Condoleezza's pronouncements on Iraq's nuclear capabilities and ambitions, notwithstanding uncertainty in the intelligence community, had far reaching policy implications.  Thousands died and hundreds of billions of dollars were spent. 

If McCain chooses to lead a rabid pack of Republicans, he should go after bigger game.

Happy Thanksgiving!

We have cause to be thankful.  Mitt couldn't catch flies.  Murdoch and Akin were not ready for the show, and, the Republican house of cards lost a joker--Allen West.

But, midterms can be tough.  We must not allow 2014 to be like 2010.  After we finish our turkeys it will soon be time to start stuffing digital envelops. 

Ben Gauzy

 Republicans are looking for a smoking gun in an arsenal.  Raw intelligence is like numbers, it does not lie, but liars use raw intelligence.  Until it is evaluated, synthesized and correlated with other intelligence, raw intelligence is gauzy and shapeless.  In the midst of protests sweeping the Muslim world over an anti-Muslim video, it was reasonable to assume a connection to the Benghazi attack.  Given the heavy arms used, it was also reasonable to assume terrorist involvement.  The two were not mutually exclusive.

After an armed uprising of various groups and militias overthrew Gaddafi, Libya resembles a scene from BoardWalk Empire:  "Is that a gun?" gangster Rosetti asks, pulling his piece. "I got a gun... He got a gun ... he got a gun ... EVERYBODY GOT GUNS!" Not surprisingly,  Obama has been cautious about arming Syrian rebels for fear of arming extremists.

 Condemning Ambassador Rice for relying on intelligence community approved talking points, is a cheap shot. Senator McCain had his high noon moment in 2008, and he lost.  Perhaps, given his recent outbursts, it is time for him to ride off into the sunset.

Mitt Who?

If it did not have to be applied liberally, Romney could market vanishing cream.  Romney is a nowhere man.  He has no geographic base.  He lost his birth state of Michigan, where his father was governor, his home state of Massachusetts, and the situs of his other two homes, New Hampshire and California.

He has no ideological base.  Although Goldwater and McGovern suffered crushing defeats, as a leader of an ideological wing, each had a long lasting impact on his party.  Romney, not so much -- he had ambition but lacked conviction. His proposed 20% tax cut will go the way of 9-9-9.  He offered 5 trillion in tax cuts, but believes he lost because of Obama's "gifts" of low interest rates on student loans, and coverage for young people on their parent's health plan.  Mitt was on bended knee with a 5 carat diamond, and the country went for the promise ring.

He might have lead a new, pragmatic, numbers driven wing of the Republican party, but for his analog clock getting cleaned, by Obama's digital campaign.

Most losing candidates have a long accomplished political career which casts a warming light on their exit from the stage.  Romney lost when he ran for Senate.  His only political service was four years as governor of Massachusetts, the last two of which were devoted to his presidential pretensions.  At the end of his term, his popularity was so low that reelection was unlikely.

Decades from now some may remember that Romneycare, was a forerunner of the wildly popular Obamacare.  But they will probably attribute it to his much more accomplished father.

The Lawyer and the Warrior

The male ego is an open book with closed captions.  John Edwards and General Petraeus have little in common, other than careers in the public eye, and political savvy.  For the upper echelon of the military not only fosters competition among the best and the brightest, but also rewards successful interaction with Congress and the Executive Branch.

But for all their differences in nobility of character, and level of self sacrifice, their fall from grace was eerily similar, stemming from the ego, more than the id.  Both had an affair with their hagiographers, Edward's with his videographer, and Petraeus, with his biographer.  Neither could resist the flattery fueled urge to get down, with the woman who placed him on a pedestal.

Each woman, if the early reports about Paula Broadwell's e-mails are accurate, had a touch of crazy.  This can be oddly appealing.  But experience teaches, that the very wild craziness that answers every entreaty, in the end, breaks every treaty. 

Romney's Lament: He Blinded Me With Science

Fittingly, the party that embraces Creationism and rejects global warming, got a cold shoulder from the evolving science of data mining.  In this weeks issue of Time, Michael Scherer has an excellent article on the "cave", the windowless room in the Chicago Headquarters where techies crunched data.

The scientific method is to constantly test, and refine assumptions.  Through testing, followed by data analysis, the Obama campaign knew who to ask for online contributions, and what message to use in solicitations.  One example given by Scherer is that the dinner with George Clooney raffle, showed that women ages 40-49 in close geographic proximity (Southern California) to the dinner were most receptive to lottery solicitations.  So an east coast based celebrity, with appeal to that demographic, Sarah Jessica Parker, was chosen for the next dinner raffle.

Algorithms were developed and tested for voters most likely to support Obama.  This was used in registration drives.  Ad buys, to turn out and persuade voters, were done in house.  This allowed precise placement of ads, utilizing polling data, to reach a targeted demographic with a tailored message.  Social media was maximized.  Someone who had downloaded the Obama app who had friends in swing states was sent a message to forward to five of those friends.

Romney ran a faith based campaign.  Unlike science, which revises assumptions to correspond with data, faith is an immovable object.  Facts must be revised to fit the assumptions.  The guiding assumptions were (1) that Republican enthusiasm would result in a large turnout, (2) disillusionment would drive down Democratic turnout compared to 2008, particularly among minorities and the young.  Therefore, if Romney could win independents, he would be president.   Romney won independents by 5 points.  On election day he, and his campaign, were certain they had won.

Based on the Romney assumptions, most of the public pollsters, whose livelihood depends on accuracy, were wrong because they were oversampling Democrats.  The polls were correct.  Democrats outnumbered Republicans by 6 percent.  The key is that Obama won moderates by 15 percent while loosing independents by 5.  There was only a tiny squishy tootsie roll center of unaffiliated, undecided moderate independents.  The rest were hard coated partisan blue or red voters.   Some Republicans may have self identified as independents, because they were even more conservative than the GOP.

Romney's one foray into modern electioneering  was Orca, an expensive get out the vote mobile app, developed to communicate the voting of targeted voters between headquarters and the field.  It was a beached whale.  Accepted on faith, it was never field tested.  It crashed.  The Romney campaign had to rely on CNN for voting information.  It could have been worse.  They might have needed to depend on Rachel Maddow.

Wave Crashes on Democrats

According to  Think Progress, "Although a small number of ballots remain to be counted, as of this writing, votes for a Democratic candidate for the House of Representatives outweigh votes for Republican candidates... 53,952,240 votes were cast for a Democratic candidate for the House and only 53,402,643 were cast for a Republican -- meaning that Democratic votes exceed Republican votes by more than half a million."

The 2010 wave election not only gave Republicans control of the House, but the means to keep it.  Little talked about is the huge gains made by Republicans in state legislators in 2010, as well as governorships.  Redistricting occurs every ten years.  State successes enabled Republicans to maximize the Congressional seats they could gain, and retain.

The Tea Party is most effective in small, intimate gatherings.  A few dollars, and a couple of volunteers, may not influence a presidential election, but can swing a state assembly seat.  Democrats must match that intensity on the local level, so that the House more accurately reflects the country.

Chamber Made

For the second cycle, ultra conservatives have dusted off Republican incumbents and promising challengers, leaving the Senate chamber in Democratic hands.  If only we could get them to clean the House of Representatives.

With Republicans having only ten seats to defend compared to twenty-three for the Democrats, early in the year, many pundits expected a Republican majority.  Instead Democrats have two more seats at the table.  The five seat majority may be enough to withstand the difficult 2014 midterm election.

Democrats will have twenty senate seats in play, many in red states, compared to thirteen for the Republicans.  But then Ms. Clinton could sweep in a super majority, in 2016, when Republicans will have twenty-four seats at risk.

Obama Bounces Back Redux

On October 24 this blog made a prediction that the third debate coupled with the Obama ground game would result in Obama taking all of the battleground states with the exception of North Carolina and a close call in Florida.  Admittedly, Romney had Sandy blown in his face, but it is still rewarding to get it right. My only error was math.  Without Florida, Obama would have had 303.  Also I said Idaho rather than the swing state of Iowa.  I need an editor.  Still,  let me have a moment to gloat with this reprint.  

Obama Bounces Back

The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line.  If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.

Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average.  If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory.  He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average.  The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states.  Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida.  Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.

The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President.  Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.

Oh, Virginia

Come out Virginia, don't let me wait.
 Choose Obama, so we won't be up late.
Aw, but sooner or later it comes down to fate.
 Obama might as well be the one.


Virginia will be the first battleground state, with polls closing at 7pm ET, followed by Ohio a half hour later. Virginia is a luxury for Obama, a necessity for Romney.  If Obama wins Virginia it will be a happy ending.

Mercenaries vs. Volunteers

Each candidate has secret weapons.  Romney  has delegated get out the vote to the party.  But as reported by Politico, Koch brothers funded Americans for Prosperity, and other groups, are paying $15 per hour for canvassers and callers to supplement GOP efforts.  These groups are spending,  an estimated, 70 million on GOTV.  Finally, Romney has a jobs plan. 

The President's secret weapon is the cell phone.  Much is said about Obama having many more campaign offices than Romney.  But while the 800 to 300 edge in key states is important, in actuality, Obama has almost 6000 call centers.  Traditionally, a campaign would set up an office with multiple, and often expensive, phone lines.  Volunteers would have to go to the headquarters, which could be some distance, to make calls.

The President's campaign recognized the power of the cell phone.  Almost everyone has unlimited minutes on weekends, and many have unlimited calling, even during the week.  Any room or home with a few sockets for chargers can be a phone bank.

Obama's other secret ingredient is time.  The canvassing operation has been developed through, and since, the last election.  The campaign has a good model of who to contact, and where possible, neighbors are knocking on the doors of prospective voters.

Community organizing, pitted against paid help, is a fitting end to this campaign.

Galluping Home

Obama is a nose ahead in the national polls, coming from slightly behind in the past week.  The third debate was a strong workout, which acted as a tightener.  Obama also benefited from the weather.  He does well on a sloppy track.  "We are all in this together," becomes a powerful message during a national emergency.

 If it takes a village to raise a child, it takes a nation to rescue a village.  Mitt's closing tactic of bipartisanship, was sunk by Christie's embrace of Obama, and Bloomberg touting him as the stronger choice. 

Gallup stalled at the poll is the last barrier to Obama pulling away in the RCP national polling average.  An outdated Gallup still has Romney ahead by 5 because  the Sandy track impacted their calls.   A new Gallup Poll will be out tomorrow.  If Obama leads in the national polls he will certainly take Romney to school in the electoral college, in which he enjoys a greater edge.

If you want to bet on Romney, bet him to place.

Obama and Romney Join the American League

National League baseball managers must decide whether to leave a pitcher in, or pull him for a pitch hitter. Resource allocation is a key part of the job.  It is the sixth inning and your team is down a run.  The manager considers how many outs there are, whether anyone is on base, and  how well his pitcher is doing, to make his decision.

Campaign managers once faced the same dilemma.  Gore pulled out of Ohio to spend more money in Florida.  Now campaigns have the designated hitter rule.  Both campaigns are so flush with cash that there is no need for Romney to pull out of  Ohio to try to score in Pennsylvania.  Obama can counter, while still taking a full swing, in all of the swing states.

Royal Delta

I had a wonderful seat at the Breeders Cup on Friday, courtesy of a good friend, and fellow horse owner. The most anticipated race was the Ladies Classic.  Royal Delta was favored to repeat.  But she faced two undefeated mares, and six of her seven opponents shared her front running style.

She won.  She is that good.

Breeders Cup Training Pictures

Mitt's Midwest Muddle

Obama is sipping bailout bubbly, an Ohio electoral elixir.  In response, Romney has run an Ohio ad about the bailout and Jeep jobs. It is so deceptive that it has, not only, been condemned by most papers, but also by the presidents of GM, Chrysler and the UAW.

With Ohio ignoring his hard core come on, he is flashing his large war chest, hoping for a rise in the polls in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin.  But, flashy ads merely show the sagging shape of his Midwest campaign.

Breeders Cup

I took a few pictures of horses entered in this year's Breeders Cup races to be held at Santa Anita.  Also included is a picture of Gary Stevens who will have some of the broadcast duties.

Nixon and Checkers

The only guilty pleasure in the Romney campaign is watching Ryan's conversion from a fire breathing budget behemoth into a lap dog for Moderate Mitt.  He cannot bark about abortion, or other social issues, for fear of scaring women.  He cannot whine about meaty cuts to popular programs for fear  of scaring independents.  He cannot poop into vouchers for fear of scaring seniors about medicare.  He is reduced to wagging his tail and staring adoringly at his master.  But there can be no Checkers without Nixon.

The blind ambition that allows Mitt to say anything, or profess any belief, to get elected, is Nixonian.  For those old enough to remember, Nixon had a secret plan to end the Viet Nam war, the key issue of his day.  Romney has a secret plan not only cut the deficit, but to pay for huge tax cuts for the wealthy.  We were fooled once.  But we will not be fooled again.

Reverting to the Mean

I am not referring to Mitt's mendacity.  Although the latest desperate adds in Ohio are shameless.  Leaving aside his attempt to fuzz his position on the auto bailout, he claims Chrysler is moving Jeep jobs to China.  This is a blatant, and repudiated, lie.  Not only does the Romney campaign never correct misrepresentations, it doubles down.

Actually, I am referring to the statistical term.  As Nate Silver points out in his insightful 538 blog for the New York Times, the race is where it stood in early summer, before the conventions and debates.  Obama has the same narrow lead in battleground states that he had in June.  If that holds, it will be a long, but good night on November 6.

Truth in Labeling

Early the Obama campaign reached a fork in the road, whether to serve flip flopping Mitt burgers, or to showcase the Republican buffet at the extreme right corner of the room with Romney as the featured entree.  Hunger for a choice election made them choose the buffet.

The rationale was obvious.  The Obama campaign feared a referendum election because of the painfully slow recovery.  If Romney is doused with stale Bush seasoning, spiked with fiery right wing rhetoric, and overly rich, voters would be forced to make a choice.  For a while this was working so well, that a landslide was in the offing.  The selection of Ryan and the 47% remark fit the Obama menu.

But Obama allowed Romney to post a new menu in the first debate, undercutting months of work and a fortune in advertising.  The one immutable rule in Presidential politics is truth in labeling.  No one knows what, if any, political principles nourish Romney.  It makes it harder to portray him as tainted food, than as mystery meat.  The flip flop line would have been longer.

The result is a nail bitter.  Not the election snack food I was hoping for.

Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust

Woody Hayes, the immortal former football coach for Ohio State, was known for grinding it out on the ground.  It is too early to pop the corks.  But for those who like to be prepared, Obama's ground game is the reason to start chilling the champagne.

Let's study the playbook for an AP poll that has Romney ahead by two percent nationally among likely voters.  Among all adults Obama actually leads by eight.  That was the reason for the registration push in battleground states.   Nationally the poll has Obama ahead by one among all registered voters.  So the goal was to register more voters in swing states to get closer to the eight percent lead that exists among all adults, and then get them to the polls to erase the difference between likely and registered voters.

An often quoted statistic is that Obama has more than double the number of field offices in battleground states.  But the disparity is much larger.  Reporting for the Atlantic Monthly, Molly Ball surveyed a number of field offices.  Obama offices were lead by professional staff, and devoted to Obama.  Romney offices were less organized, often all volunteer, and devoted primarily to local candidates, with some Romney literature.  But to get the full picture go to the events section on each candidates website for your zip code.  In Southern California, no Romney events are scheduled for the next week.  In contract for Obama there are multiple gatherings each day for calling swing state voters as well as planned caravans to Nevada,  the nearest battleground.

The most accurate measure of the ground game is early voting.  In the most recent Time Magazine poll for Ohio, Obama had a 2 to 1 advantage among early voters.  In Iowa, 55000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans.  Barring a late hail Mary, Obama should beat the spread.

Obama Bounces Back

The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line.  If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.

Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average.  If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory.  He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average.  The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states.  Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida.  Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.

The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President.  Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.

Molting Mitt

Having no backbone, Romney can slither into any political position.  In an offbeat tribute to the passing of George McGovern, Mitt's bellicose blather transformed into peacenik prattle.  He adopted so many Obama policies that he might be angling to replace Biden on the ticket.  When Romney molted into moderate Mitt in the first debate, it left Obama speechless, much to his detriment.  This time the president was ready.  It was a clear victory.  In a few days we will see if it had any impact on the polls.

Never has a candidate moved to the center so late in a campaign.  Amazingly conservatives, ever distrustful of Romney, have acquiesced.  Their summer of discontent with the campaign, left them willing to accept any path to possible victory.

As a side note, Romney made a subtle plea to  Jewish voters, that has gone unnoticed by the pundits.  On about ten occasions he used the word "tumult," hardly country club parlance.  It is a quasi Yiddish word commonly used by older, and religious, Jews, often with the actual Yiddish word,  "tsouris."  If you go back and watch the debate you will see it sounds forced, each time he uses it.

Sunburn

If I had a pet peeve I would name it dead heat.  Because of the added excitement of a close race, every poll within the margin of error goes by the name of my imaginary pet.  CNN headlines today that Florida is a dead heat--Romney 49, Obama 47.  My peeve is barking incessantly at the statistical stupidity.  It could be tied, but it is equally possible that Romney is up by 5.  Let the numbers speak for themselves, so that I can keep my peeve quiet.

Forward!

The consumer confidence index reached the highest level in 5 years in the report issued October 12th.  Some gave credit to the drop in unemployment.  But despite the 7.8% headline, the underlying numbers were only a slight improvement.  Consumers respond to what they see and feel.  We now have the answer.

The home market is improving.  A reduction in foreclosures, and a flurry of sold signs, improves the mood of a neighborhood.  Romney proving, in the first debate,  that he was not a troll under a bridge, overwhelmed the initial impact of the housing trend.  But this trend, combined with a good final debate for Obama, could put Romney on a bridge to nowhere.  At least he can be heartened that his four houses have gained value.

Reading and Righting Romney

This time Obama had Romney's number.  Given the vagaries of Romney 'rithmetic, numbers matter.  Romney has artfully moved from the impossible to the meaningless.  At the first debate, and in the VP debate, team Romney claimed that elimination of deductions and loopholes, would make tax cuts for the wealthy revenue neutral.  Studies have shown that even eliminating all deductions for the upper income tax payers is not enough to offset the cuts. 

If this could be revenue neutral, what would be the point?  Romney claims the cuts will spur small businesses to grow and create jobs.  But if loss of deductions results in no tax reduction what is the spur to growth?  Also given historically low rates, diminishing returns would blunt the impact of any slight reductions.

But impossible is better than absurd.  In the second debate Romney portentously proclaimed that the top 5% would continue to pay 60% of all taxes.  Of course, if everyone gets the same 20% reduction, the ratio would not change.  But someone making ten million a year and paying three million in taxes, would save $600,000.  Someone making $50,000 and paying $10,000 would save $2000. 

If voters are paying attention, Romney's political days are numbered.

One Half Quart Low

One of the staples in life has been 1/2 gallons of ice cream.  Life had its ups and downs, but you could always count on those rows of 1/2 gallon containers.  For no apparent reason, and with no obvious drop in price, the containers disappeared, replaced by 1.5 quarts.

Romney has always struck me as 1/2 quart low.  He has the rich, white, creamy vanilla part down, but is only empty calories.  He has the intelligence, he has the ambition, but he lacks conviction.  No matter how rocky the road, you always know the values and goals that drive Obama.  Romney is always the flavor of the day.  In Virginia, a state with a large military vote, he expounds on the importance of spending tens and perhaps hundreds of billions on new naval ships, when there is no other naval power, now, or on the horizon.  He only likes the cherry on top.  He spends a convention talking about so-called job creators, but shows no interest in workers.  He promises big extra scoops for defense spending, seeking 2 trillion in increases, but forgets to thank the troops.


He is a shiny new package, but the container lacks empathy.  He is a half quart down.

Biden Blues

Holy Toledo!  That is what the VP debate was about.  Biden is authentic and has special appeal to blue collar voters, particularly in the key battleground state of Ohio.  Pundits grimaced at his smiles and smirks, and shuddered at his interruptions.  But the guy watching the debate in a bar in Youngstown related.

Whereas, Gore's sighs seemed phony and arrogant in the 2000 debates, Biden wears his heart on his face.   The flash polls of those who watched the debate shows a win for Biden.  CBS had him up 50 to 31.  CNN actually had Ryan slightly ahead, 48 to 44.  But the poll caveats that it over sampled Republicans by eight per cent.  Both polls show that Biden greatly exceeded expectations.

Ryan did well, keeping the base happy, appearing reasonable, and reasonably presidential.  But Biden not only stopped the bleeding, but heartened Democrats with a minor transfusion.  If as I suspect, he played better in Ohio than nationally, this is an even bigger win.

The table is set for Obama's debate on Tuesday.  Hopefully, he will bring a sharper knife.

Why the Debate Mattered

Free media either acts as an echo chamber for paid media or as a mute button.  Obama wants this to be a choice election, while Romney's campaign wanted a referendum on the president.  Obama won.

The second part of the game plan was to portray Romney as an uncaring, right wing extremist plutocrat.  Obama enjoyed early success, but Romney's debate success muted that attack.  For that reason the Obama campaign is  attacking Romney as a flip flopper.  That is more consistent with the debate, which featured a "new" Romney.  It is some measure of success for Romney, that for the first time in the campaign, Obama is forced to change course.

Biden: His Time

Biden gaffes are fodder for late night comedians.  He is the underdog for Thursday's debate in Danville Kentucky.  But I fearlessly predict that it will be Ryan face down in the blue grass.

Biden is constantly underrated.  He gave one of the best speeches at the convention.  He is the Obama campaign's secret weapon in the midwest.  Elites may laugh, and the right may snicker, because his blue collar roots are showing.  But, he is a crowd please for that very reason.

Ryan may be able to see Canada from his front porch, but Biden has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee.  Romney and Ryan saber rattle from the safety of their desks.  Biden's son is a warrior.

If you bet on a long shot, the payoff is bigger.  Biden will cross the wire first.  Ryan will be bottled in bond, while Biden is enjoying some good sipping whiskey.

Prismatic

There is no lover more fickle than the media.  When I worked in Congressman Anderson's presidential campaign, he was the fresh face with new ideas.  We shot up to the low 20s in the polls before the press, and the public, got a collective case of buyer's remorse.  We finished with 6.1% of the vote.  Still the staff had cause to celebrate.  Six per cent qualified us for matching funds.  We all got paid.

Many on the right have believed that the polls are rigged and the press biased.  Neither are true.  But I am not the first to mention that reporting is filtered through the prism of the current story line.  In every campaign there is a period in which a campaign is in crisis.  Events are reported that fit the story line.  Another tableau, is the tightening race.  I suspect after the Denver debacle, that will be the next story line.  The press loves this.  A photo finish is better copy than a blow out.  The press bias is for a story line, not a candidate.

About now Mr. Clooney is placing a call, telling the president to look into the camera or at the actor sharing the stage.  The president is fiercely competitive.  The next presidential debate will be exciting.

Cambria Trip

A wonderful drive up the coast,  J. Patrick's great Band B in Cambria, and wine tasting.