The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line. If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.
Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average. If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory. He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average. The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states. Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida. Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.
The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President. Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.
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