Woody Hayes, the immortal former football coach for Ohio State, was known for grinding it out on the ground. It is too early to pop the corks. But for those who like to be prepared, Obama's ground game is the reason to start chilling the champagne.
Let's study the playbook for an AP poll that has Romney ahead by two percent nationally among likely voters. Among all adults Obama actually leads by eight. That was the reason for the registration push in battleground states. Nationally the poll has Obama ahead by one among all registered voters. So the goal was to register more voters in swing states to get closer to the eight percent lead that exists among all adults, and then get them to the polls to erase the difference between likely and registered voters.
An often quoted statistic is that Obama has more than double the number of field offices in battleground states. But the disparity is much larger. Reporting for the Atlantic Monthly, Molly Ball surveyed a number of field offices. Obama offices were lead by professional staff, and devoted to Obama. Romney offices were less organized, often all volunteer, and devoted primarily to local candidates, with some Romney literature. But to get the full picture go to the events section on each candidates website for your zip code. In Southern California, no Romney events are scheduled for the next week. In contract for Obama there are multiple gatherings each day for calling swing state voters as well as planned caravans to Nevada, the nearest battleground.
The most accurate measure of the ground game is early voting. In the most recent Time Magazine poll for Ohio, Obama had a 2 to 1 advantage among early voters. In Iowa, 55000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Barring a late hail Mary, Obama should beat the spread.
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