Monday, October 29, 2012

Reverting to the Mean

I am not referring to Mitt's mendacity.  Although the latest desperate adds in Ohio are shameless.  Leaving aside his attempt to fuzz his position on the auto bailout, he claims Chrysler is moving Jeep jobs to China.  This is a blatant, and repudiated, lie.  Not only does the Romney campaign never correct misrepresentations, it doubles down.

Actually, I am referring to the statistical term.  As Nate Silver points out in his insightful 538 blog for the New York Times, the race is where it stood in early summer, before the conventions and debates.  Obama has the same narrow lead in battleground states that he had in June.  If that holds, it will be a long, but good night on November 6.

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