Obama Bounces Back Redux

On October 24 this blog made a prediction that the third debate coupled with the Obama ground game would result in Obama taking all of the battleground states with the exception of North Carolina and a close call in Florida.  Admittedly, Romney had Sandy blown in his face, but it is still rewarding to get it right. My only error was math.  Without Florida, Obama would have had 303.  Also I said Idaho rather than the swing state of Iowa.  I need an editor.  Still,  let me have a moment to gloat with this reprint.  

Obama Bounces Back

The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line.  If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.

Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average.  If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory.  He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average.  The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states.  Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida.  Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.

The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President.  Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.