48 Hour FBI Flu

Giving Comey the benefit of the doubt that he might be acting in good faith, we will have this email wrapped up in two days.  The task is simpler than before.

First isolate all emails from Clinton to Huma Abedin.  Next cross reference against any emails from Clinton to Abedin on Hillary's server.  Eliminate all duplicates.  Review the remainder, if any.

If Comey drags this on beyond the election, he may be willfully violating the Hatch Act.

Clinton Innocence Reinforced

Comey has shown his true color, pachyderm grey.  Inserting himself into the election, against protocol, is as clear cut, as his letter is ambiguous.

Now that we know his bias, we can reexamine his decision to not prosecute.   The case was so clear cut he had no option.  The only thing he could do as a partisan, was to issue a harsh statement, once again violating protocol.  If a self serving, GOP leaning hack, cleared her, someone more objective might have given her a medal.

Phony Comey

Comey covered his ass, while splitting the nation down the middle.  He wants to be a boy scout, dutifully reporting to Congress.  Looking good is not the same as doing good.  For an FBI Director country must come before self.

Comey violated FBI and Justice department protocol by discussing an investigation, without even knowing if material evidence exists.  Clinton is placed in a false bad light, with no illumination.  As a general matter this is unethical--11 days before and election it is unconscionable.

2020

This election pivots on Clinton's attacks on Trump's temperament, and Trump foaming at the mouth to prove her point.  The result should be satisfying, the process, not so much.

For 2020 I am wishing for wonks.  Clinton and Ryan are policy wonks.  After bathing in dirty water, a shower of competing ideas might cleanse our national soul.

Empathy

The classic polling question is does the candidate care about people like you?  Today Trump sharply answered that question in word and deed.

At one of his properties, he gathered employees as a backdrop for a photo op, treating them as a mere prop.  He railed that his employees suffered from costly and inadequate health benefits because of the failures of Obamacare.

His employees may well have inadequate health care coverage.  But it would be under a Trump company plan, not Obamacare.  Trump neither knows, nor cares about the medical coverage for his employees.  If he does not care about his own employees,  can he really care about you or me?

Trump Admits Defeat

For more than a decade, Trump's greatest asset has not been his golden towers, but rather his media enhanced name.  Boffo and bunko businesses alike, have paid dearly for his imprimatur.

Now even the great orange one, has admitted defeat,  dumping his name.  Future projects will shimmer with Scion, not tumble with Trump.  The Trump name is toxic, with occupancy rates tumbling 30% in an up market.

Feel the pain, the loss of power,
when they shun your name,
even at, Trump Tower

Rigged Election

Donald Trump is right that the election is rigged, while yet being so wrong.  If rigged means one party gets more votes, but loses, than the Congressional election is rigged.  Over each of the last three cycles, Democrats in the aggregate, have gotten more votes than Republicans, yet have lost the House by increasing numbers.

The GOP brilliantly focused on state houses leading up to the 2010 census.  The reapportionment all but assured a Republican majority.  As this campaign season draws to a close President Obama is launching campaign ads for up to 150 state legislative candidates.  Fair elections may be in the offing.

The presidential race receives too much bipartisan scrutiny for systemic fraud.  But it is a race you cannot expect to win if you run an ass against a thoroughbred.

Going All in on Las Vegas

Yesterday was the start of early voting in Nevada.  The Clinton campaign is all in.  Bus loads of Californians have been joining Nevada volunteers to register voters.  Now with a favorable electorate in place, a record number of California volunteers boarded buses and drove their cars to storm the citadel of Las Vegas.  The clarion call even reached two delightful women from Idaho who drove 10 hours to support the campaign.

The goal of GOTV, particularly in an early voting state, is to go after first time, and irregular voters.  Ripe low lying fruit will fall with only a slight nudge. At the top, each vote must be carefully picked. Roslyn and I, had very positive responses to our canvassing.   Every voter we contacted had a plan in place to vote early.  Each voter was also supporting Catherine Cortez Masto  to succeed Harry Reid, for the hotly contested Senate seat.  To seal the deal, Obama is in Las Vegas today.

The air war is as intense as that on the ground.  Denizens of Las Vegas are longing for Charmin ads.  On local stations, every commercial break is filled with 5 or more political ads.  How will they know which beer to drink?

Imagine

Imagine a TV network that makes Fox News look like the Disney channel, like Rush Limbaugh on steroids, or whatever currently is his drug of choice.  Imagine conspiracy theories basking in widely viewed glory, threatening the public discourse, and the civility that sustains democracy.   As John Lennon said, "It's not very hard to do."

Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, is presently seeking funding for the venture.  He is aided by former Fox News executive, and lecher in chief, Roger Aisles, as well as Steve Bannon, of Breitbart infamy.

Time to stop imagining, and to do something.  Defeating Trump is not enough.  The loss must be resounding, like the opening notes of Beethoven's Fifth.  Winning is the Trump brand, losing badly could scuttle it, and render pathetic any discussion of a rigged election.

The personal conscience, informal boycott of Trump properties, must take on all the formality and glittery perfection of a ball gown.  Finally, on social media millions must make it clear we will also boycott anyone connected with, or advertising on such a network.

If we do it right, while he is busy talking about grabbing women, we will have him by the balls.

Carpe Diem

Before Trump, the mantra of every campaign was seize the day.  Whether by policy initiative, photo op or attack line, win every news cycle.  But as the Trump campaign is hell bound on hitting the gas and pounding into the wall, Hillary is stepping out of the way and out of the day.

Other than picking up a few checks, she has gone silent.  She is prepping, getting her nails done, taking a nap, watching soaps, anything but make news.

Campaigning can be relaxing when you run against a crash dummy.

Slim Chance

Carlos Slim is Trump's latest conspiracy fetish.   The name Carlos Slim, conjures a possible finalist in a poker world championship in Las Vegas.  In actuality, he is a Mexican business man so wealthy, that by comparison, Trump is one of the striking housekeepers at the Trump International Las Vegas Hotel.

Carlos Slim has given more to charity than Trump's total net worth.  He has opened a stunning museum, with free admission, that I visited in the Polanco section of Mexico City.  He has given over 4 billion dollars to the Gates foundation, and yes, he has contributed to the Clinton Foundation.

The lynchpin for Donald, is that one of Slim's thinner investments is in the New York Times.  Therefore, using Trumptilian logic, Carlos Slim is the spearhead of an international conspiracy to slander The Donald with accusations of sexual assault.

Donald, don't flatter yourself.  Carlos has less concern for you than you have for the well being of the housekeepers in your hotels.

Wasted Days and Wasted Nights

Trump is behind with 26 days to go before the election.  He needs each news cycle to be lead by either his signature issues, trade and immigration, or a reverberating attack on Hillary.  Each day devoted to his feud with Ryan or his groping of women, is at best a wasted day.  Even if those stories do not hurt his chances, and they should, they suck away his time.

While Trump fumes and dithers, Hillary is employing her strong ground game to bank ballots in early voting swing states.  If she still has a significant lead at the end of this month, we can begin popping corks.

Raising Arizona

Trump has again dumped on the character of the senior Senator from Arizona.  He deserves a McCaining.  Barring that, Arizonians should rise up to put Trump down.    He cannot win without Arizona.  Early voting starts today.

Vote!

Early voting starts today in Indiana, Ohio, and Arizona.  Voting started yesterday in New Mexico.  If you live in one of those states please vote.  If you have friends in any of the early voting states, urge them to vote.  Thanks.

Lining Out

When clueless on how to cut costs, politicians fall back on certain buzz words.  Listen for them.  The most common is fraud and waste.  No one favors fraud and waste.  The low lying fruit has already been picked.  The rest is usually insignificant or intractable.

Trump uses buzz words to hide his lack of a plan to replace Obamacare.  The first is block grants, which he would give to the states to help those unable to afford medical insurance.  That is just kicking the can to the states, without a solution or accountability.  The hidden subtext is always that the block grants will be less than the amount currently allocated.  This only lowers costs by reducing benefits.

The trickier buzz word is competition.  Some proposals actually lower costs.  Trump's does not.  His plan to eliminate state lines for medical plans lines out.  The product is local.  The networks of doctors and hospitals do not change.  Because the product is the same the costs will not alter significantly.  The insurance companies still have to contract with the same hospitals and physicians.  The only possible impact would be in towns like Kansas City that straddle two states.

If we are paying attention, we won't swing at Trump's pitch.

Ptomaine Trump

Tonight Trump threw tainted red meat to his ravenous base.  He will put Hillary in jail, Bill does the terrible sexual things that Trump only talks about, Benghazi, and e-mails.  He was much better than in the first debate, which is like saying there were only a few cases of food poisoning.

He aggressively stalked Hillary all over the stage, but had little to show for it.  While his base was busily devouring his every word, undecided voters were looking to see what else was on the menu.

Nothing he said reassured suburban women.  Conservatives nibbling on the Pence fantasy, put down their forks when the VP nominee became roadkill.   Pence was not only wrong on Syria, Trump did not consider him worth consulting.

Hillary was calmer, more presidential.  She won on substance and on style.  Trump was unappetizing to a majority of the electorate before and after the debate.

Friends and Neighbors

Here is the ultimate test for undecided voters, or soft supporters.  Make a list of 5 friends and 5 neighbors.  Of those 10 people how many would be a better, safer choice for president than Donald Trump?

Unless you live in a think tank, policy depth will not be a strong suit for your list.  But policy is not a strong suit for Trump.  You expect your friends and neighbors would surround themselves with talented advisors, as you would hope the same for Trump.  But temperament is the deciding factor.  Everyone on my list has greater impulse control than Trump.

Now compare Hillary to your list.  You may find her too liberal, or conversely too tied to Wall Street. But she knows more about policy than anyone on your list.  She is steady.  She should be our next president.

MisReed

Ralph Reed has long been the political baby face of the conservative evangelical movement.  He is sticking with Trump, because "His support is not about shared values, but shared issues."

Have evangelical leaders sold their souls?  If the evangelical movement does not stand for values, what is its purpose?  

Cart Before the Horse

The presidential candidate is usually the work horse pulling the party forward with a strong ground game.  Clinton, like Obama before her, has filled the battlegrounds with field offices and staff.  This may be most meaningful for the bottom of the ballot, state legislative races.

The least financed races benefit most, from efforts at the top.  Trump is running a very different campaign.  Rather than pulling the load, he is asking the local and state party apparatus to push him forward.  He has outsourced the ground game to them.

Well financed Senate and Gubenatorial races, may be able to pick up the slack.  But Democrats should see a resurgence in state houses, which down the road, will help with redistricting.

Lost in the Cornfields

The election may already be over.  Even if Trump plows through electorally rich Ohio and Florida, and pulls out Nevada and North Carolina, he needs Iowa's 6 electoral votes to get to the magic number of 270.

Before the presidential debate he had a slight lead in the Iowa polls, but not enough staff to harvest votes.  Early voting started in late September.   Clinton's likely post debate upsurge, coupled with her ground game, means that her early bird may have already caught the worm.

Needle in Neutral

The debate went much as I predicted in my prior post.  Pence was dollars ahead on style.  His talk show experience was evident.  On that front Kaine was worse than I expected.  His stock in trade is likability.  As a good soldier he aggressively charged forward in a way that some, such as Biden, can bring off, but not Kaine. He was ill served by the campaign.

Not unexpectedly, even with a CNN poll that had more Democratic respondents, Pence won 48 to 42.  But Kaine, who lost the battle, may yet win the war.  Pence was calm and presidential.   Many in the GOP may take some solace about the bottom of their ticket, and even envision him as a future nominee.  Pence helped Pence.

Pence was not a good soldier.  He was too busy bucking for a promotion.  He did little to defend Trump.  Denying he or Trump made various statements, helped sweeten his night, but will sour the day.  He lied.  Every crazy statement Kaine attributed to Trump was true and verifiable.  Pence's hawkish foreign policy positions were inconsistent with the belligerent dove, at the top of the ticket.

Pence won the night on style points, Kaine will edge him tomorrow on truth and substance.  The result will be no change, which is good for Hillary.

Bottoms Up

Tonight Mike Pence has key superficial advantages.  He is better looking, has a more sonorous voice, and based on years as a talk show host, a smoother delivery.  But he is at a substantive disadvantage.  The top of the ticket, who he must defend, is a bottom feeder.

Kaine is likable, and has less ground to defend.  At the end of the night, I doubt the needle will move.

Her Own Private Iowa

Iowa is a demographic diaspora for Hillary.  The state has virtually no minorities, and less than a quarter of the population has a college education.

But with the early voting window open, light is shining through.  No post debate polls have dropped, but her numbers must be at, or near, a high point.  She may have the state largely to herself.  She has the larger organization and hordes of surrogates to get out the vote.

Hillary may steal Iowa while Trump tweets.

Millennial Madness

Working class Americans have often voted against their economic interest, lured by a GOP cynical clarion call on social issues.  Sadly millennials are falling into a similar trap.  Their purity of purpose is sullying their future.

The most recent poll has millennials at 31% for Clinton, 29% for Johnson and 26% for Trump.  Now lets look at positions on key issues.

Favors government action on Climate Change:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Debt Free College Tuition:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Raising Minimum Wage:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Displayed Foreign Policy Knowledge:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No

Johnson does win on one.
Legalizing Marijuana:  Clinton--No, Johnson--Yes, Trump--No

So millennials, I  have one question.  What have you been smoking?