Obama is sipping bailout bubbly, an Ohio electoral elixir. In response, Romney has run an Ohio ad about the bailout and Jeep jobs. It is so deceptive that it has, not only, been condemned by most papers, but also by the presidents of GM, Chrysler and the UAW.
With Ohio ignoring his hard core come on, he is flashing his large war chest, hoping for a rise in the polls in Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Wisconsin. But, flashy ads merely show the sagging shape of his Midwest campaign.
Wednesday, October 31, 2012
Tuesday, October 30, 2012
Breeders Cup
Nixon and Checkers
The only guilty pleasure in the Romney campaign is watching Ryan's conversion from a fire breathing budget behemoth into a lap dog for Moderate Mitt. He cannot bark about abortion, or other social issues, for fear of scaring women. He cannot whine about meaty cuts to popular programs for fear of scaring independents. He cannot poop into vouchers for fear of scaring seniors about medicare. He is reduced to wagging his tail and staring adoringly at his master. But there can be no Checkers without Nixon.
The blind ambition that allows Mitt to say anything, or profess any belief, to get elected, is Nixonian. For those old enough to remember, Nixon had a secret plan to end the Viet Nam war, the key issue of his day. Romney has a secret plan not only cut the deficit, but to pay for huge tax cuts for the wealthy. We were fooled once. But we will not be fooled again.
The blind ambition that allows Mitt to say anything, or profess any belief, to get elected, is Nixonian. For those old enough to remember, Nixon had a secret plan to end the Viet Nam war, the key issue of his day. Romney has a secret plan not only cut the deficit, but to pay for huge tax cuts for the wealthy. We were fooled once. But we will not be fooled again.
Monday, October 29, 2012
Reverting to the Mean
I am not referring to Mitt's mendacity. Although the latest desperate adds in Ohio are shameless. Leaving aside his attempt to fuzz his position on the auto bailout, he claims Chrysler is moving Jeep jobs to China. This is a blatant, and repudiated, lie. Not only does the Romney campaign never correct misrepresentations, it doubles down.
Actually, I am referring to the statistical term. As Nate Silver points out in his insightful 538 blog for the New York Times, the race is where it stood in early summer, before the conventions and debates. Obama has the same narrow lead in battleground states that he had in June. If that holds, it will be a long, but good night on November 6.
Actually, I am referring to the statistical term. As Nate Silver points out in his insightful 538 blog for the New York Times, the race is where it stood in early summer, before the conventions and debates. Obama has the same narrow lead in battleground states that he had in June. If that holds, it will be a long, but good night on November 6.
Sunday, October 28, 2012
Truth in Labeling
Early the Obama campaign reached a fork in the road, whether to serve flip flopping Mitt burgers, or to showcase the Republican buffet at the extreme right corner of the room with Romney as the featured entree. Hunger for a choice election made them choose the buffet.
The rationale was obvious. The Obama campaign feared a referendum election because of the painfully slow recovery. If Romney is doused with stale Bush seasoning, spiked with fiery right wing rhetoric, and overly rich, voters would be forced to make a choice. For a while this was working so well, that a landslide was in the offing. The selection of Ryan and the 47% remark fit the Obama menu.
But Obama allowed Romney to post a new menu in the first debate, undercutting months of work and a fortune in advertising. The one immutable rule in Presidential politics is truth in labeling. No one knows what, if any, political principles nourish Romney. It makes it harder to portray him as tainted food, than as mystery meat. The flip flop line would have been longer.
The result is a nail bitter. Not the election snack food I was hoping for.
The rationale was obvious. The Obama campaign feared a referendum election because of the painfully slow recovery. If Romney is doused with stale Bush seasoning, spiked with fiery right wing rhetoric, and overly rich, voters would be forced to make a choice. For a while this was working so well, that a landslide was in the offing. The selection of Ryan and the 47% remark fit the Obama menu.
But Obama allowed Romney to post a new menu in the first debate, undercutting months of work and a fortune in advertising. The one immutable rule in Presidential politics is truth in labeling. No one knows what, if any, political principles nourish Romney. It makes it harder to portray him as tainted food, than as mystery meat. The flip flop line would have been longer.
The result is a nail bitter. Not the election snack food I was hoping for.
Thursday, October 25, 2012
Three Yards and a Cloud of Dust
Woody Hayes, the immortal former football coach for Ohio State, was known for grinding it out on the ground. It is too early to pop the corks. But for those who like to be prepared, Obama's ground game is the reason to start chilling the champagne.
Let's study the playbook for an AP poll that has Romney ahead by two percent nationally among likely voters. Among all adults Obama actually leads by eight. That was the reason for the registration push in battleground states. Nationally the poll has Obama ahead by one among all registered voters. So the goal was to register more voters in swing states to get closer to the eight percent lead that exists among all adults, and then get them to the polls to erase the difference between likely and registered voters.
An often quoted statistic is that Obama has more than double the number of field offices in battleground states. But the disparity is much larger. Reporting for the Atlantic Monthly, Molly Ball surveyed a number of field offices. Obama offices were lead by professional staff, and devoted to Obama. Romney offices were less organized, often all volunteer, and devoted primarily to local candidates, with some Romney literature. But to get the full picture go to the events section on each candidates website for your zip code. In Southern California, no Romney events are scheduled for the next week. In contract for Obama there are multiple gatherings each day for calling swing state voters as well as planned caravans to Nevada, the nearest battleground.
The most accurate measure of the ground game is early voting. In the most recent Time Magazine poll for Ohio, Obama had a 2 to 1 advantage among early voters. In Iowa, 55000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Barring a late hail Mary, Obama should beat the spread.
Let's study the playbook for an AP poll that has Romney ahead by two percent nationally among likely voters. Among all adults Obama actually leads by eight. That was the reason for the registration push in battleground states. Nationally the poll has Obama ahead by one among all registered voters. So the goal was to register more voters in swing states to get closer to the eight percent lead that exists among all adults, and then get them to the polls to erase the difference between likely and registered voters.
An often quoted statistic is that Obama has more than double the number of field offices in battleground states. But the disparity is much larger. Reporting for the Atlantic Monthly, Molly Ball surveyed a number of field offices. Obama offices were lead by professional staff, and devoted to Obama. Romney offices were less organized, often all volunteer, and devoted primarily to local candidates, with some Romney literature. But to get the full picture go to the events section on each candidates website for your zip code. In Southern California, no Romney events are scheduled for the next week. In contract for Obama there are multiple gatherings each day for calling swing state voters as well as planned caravans to Nevada, the nearest battleground.
The most accurate measure of the ground game is early voting. In the most recent Time Magazine poll for Ohio, Obama had a 2 to 1 advantage among early voters. In Iowa, 55000 more Democrats have voted than Republicans. Barring a late hail Mary, Obama should beat the spread.
Wednesday, October 24, 2012
Obama Bounces Back
The press is bored with reporting "Mitt's Momentum," hungering for a new story line. If, as I anticipate, Obama gets a bounce of between one and two percent from the last debate, we will be hearing about the Obama comeback.
Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average. If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory. He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average. The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states. Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida. Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.
The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President. Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.
Pre-debate Romney held a .9% lead in the RealClearPolitics poll average. If Obama pulls into an only nominal lead he may coast to victory. He is currently polling about one percent better in the swing states than the national average. The time and money devoted to the ground game could be worth as much as an additional one percent in battleground states. Cumulatively, the result would be Obama taking Wisconsin, Ohio, New Hampshire, Nevada, Idaho, Virgina, Colorado, and having a run at Florida. Obama would have 313 electoral votes without Florida.
The bounce, if it comes, will be an increase in the percentage of Democrats polling for the President. Also, perhaps surprisingly, he may narrow the male gender gap, rather than increasing the number of female supporters.
Tuesday, October 23, 2012
Molting Mitt
Having no backbone, Romney can slither into any political position. In an offbeat tribute to the passing of George McGovern, Mitt's bellicose blather transformed into peacenik prattle. He adopted so many Obama policies that he might be angling to replace Biden on the ticket. When Romney molted into moderate Mitt in the first debate, it left Obama speechless, much to his detriment. This time the president was ready. It was a clear victory. In a few days we will see if it had any impact on the polls.
Never has a candidate moved to the center so late in a campaign. Amazingly conservatives, ever distrustful of Romney, have acquiesced. Their summer of discontent with the campaign, left them willing to accept any path to possible victory.
As a side note, Romney made a subtle plea to Jewish voters, that has gone unnoticed by the pundits. On about ten occasions he used the word "tumult," hardly country club parlance. It is a quasi Yiddish word commonly used by older, and religious, Jews, often with the actual Yiddish word, "tsouris." If you go back and watch the debate you will see it sounds forced, each time he uses it.
Never has a candidate moved to the center so late in a campaign. Amazingly conservatives, ever distrustful of Romney, have acquiesced. Their summer of discontent with the campaign, left them willing to accept any path to possible victory.
As a side note, Romney made a subtle plea to Jewish voters, that has gone unnoticed by the pundits. On about ten occasions he used the word "tumult," hardly country club parlance. It is a quasi Yiddish word commonly used by older, and religious, Jews, often with the actual Yiddish word, "tsouris." If you go back and watch the debate you will see it sounds forced, each time he uses it.
Friday, October 19, 2012
Sunburn
If I had a pet peeve I would name it dead heat. Because of the added excitement of a close race, every poll within the margin of error goes by the name of my imaginary pet. CNN headlines today that Florida is a dead heat--Romney 49, Obama 47. My peeve is barking incessantly at the statistical stupidity. It could be tied, but it is equally possible that Romney is up by 5. Let the numbers speak for themselves, so that I can keep my peeve quiet.
Thursday, October 18, 2012
Forward!
The consumer confidence index reached the highest level in 5 years in the report issued October 12th. Some gave credit to the drop in unemployment. But despite the 7.8% headline, the underlying numbers were only a slight improvement. Consumers respond to what they see and feel. We now have the answer.
The home market is improving. A reduction in foreclosures, and a flurry of sold signs, improves the mood of a neighborhood. Romney proving, in the first debate, that he was not a troll under a bridge, overwhelmed the initial impact of the housing trend. But this trend, combined with a good final debate for Obama, could put Romney on a bridge to nowhere. At least he can be heartened that his four houses have gained value.
The home market is improving. A reduction in foreclosures, and a flurry of sold signs, improves the mood of a neighborhood. Romney proving, in the first debate, that he was not a troll under a bridge, overwhelmed the initial impact of the housing trend. But this trend, combined with a good final debate for Obama, could put Romney on a bridge to nowhere. At least he can be heartened that his four houses have gained value.
Wednesday, October 17, 2012
Reading and Righting Romney
This time Obama had Romney's number. Given the vagaries of Romney 'rithmetic, numbers matter. Romney has artfully moved from the impossible to the meaningless. At the first debate, and in the VP debate, team Romney claimed that elimination of deductions and loopholes, would make tax cuts for the wealthy revenue neutral. Studies have shown that even eliminating all deductions for the upper income tax payers is not enough to offset the cuts.
If this could be revenue neutral, what would be the point? Romney claims the cuts will spur small businesses to grow and create jobs. But if loss of deductions results in no tax reduction what is the spur to growth? Also given historically low rates, diminishing returns would blunt the impact of any slight reductions.
But impossible is better than absurd. In the second debate Romney portentously proclaimed that the top 5% would continue to pay 60% of all taxes. Of course, if everyone gets the same 20% reduction, the ratio would not change. But someone making ten million a year and paying three million in taxes, would save $600,000. Someone making $50,000 and paying $10,000 would save $2000.
If voters are paying attention, Romney's political days are numbered.
If this could be revenue neutral, what would be the point? Romney claims the cuts will spur small businesses to grow and create jobs. But if loss of deductions results in no tax reduction what is the spur to growth? Also given historically low rates, diminishing returns would blunt the impact of any slight reductions.
But impossible is better than absurd. In the second debate Romney portentously proclaimed that the top 5% would continue to pay 60% of all taxes. Of course, if everyone gets the same 20% reduction, the ratio would not change. But someone making ten million a year and paying three million in taxes, would save $600,000. Someone making $50,000 and paying $10,000 would save $2000.
If voters are paying attention, Romney's political days are numbered.
Sunday, October 14, 2012
One Half Quart Low
One of the staples in life has been 1/2 gallons of ice cream. Life had its ups and downs, but you could always count on those rows of 1/2 gallon containers. For no apparent reason, and with no obvious drop in price, the containers disappeared, replaced by 1.5 quarts.
Romney has always struck me as 1/2 quart low. He has the rich, white, creamy vanilla part down, but is only empty calories. He has the intelligence, he has the ambition, but he lacks conviction. No matter how rocky the road, you always know the values and goals that drive Obama. Romney is always the flavor of the day. In Virginia, a state with a large military vote, he expounds on the importance of spending tens and perhaps hundreds of billions on new naval ships, when there is no other naval power, now, or on the horizon. He only likes the cherry on top. He spends a convention talking about so-called job creators, but shows no interest in workers. He promises big extra scoops for defense spending, seeking 2 trillion in increases, but forgets to thank the troops.
He is a shiny new package, but the container lacks empathy. He is a half quart down.
Romney has always struck me as 1/2 quart low. He has the rich, white, creamy vanilla part down, but is only empty calories. He has the intelligence, he has the ambition, but he lacks conviction. No matter how rocky the road, you always know the values and goals that drive Obama. Romney is always the flavor of the day. In Virginia, a state with a large military vote, he expounds on the importance of spending tens and perhaps hundreds of billions on new naval ships, when there is no other naval power, now, or on the horizon. He only likes the cherry on top. He spends a convention talking about so-called job creators, but shows no interest in workers. He promises big extra scoops for defense spending, seeking 2 trillion in increases, but forgets to thank the troops.
He is a shiny new package, but the container lacks empathy. He is a half quart down.
Thursday, October 11, 2012
Biden Blues
Holy Toledo! That is what the VP debate was about. Biden is authentic and has special appeal to blue collar voters, particularly in the key battleground state of Ohio. Pundits grimaced at his smiles and smirks, and shuddered at his interruptions. But the guy watching the debate in a bar in Youngstown related.
Whereas, Gore's sighs seemed phony and arrogant in the 2000 debates, Biden wears his heart on his face. The flash polls of those who watched the debate shows a win for Biden. CBS had him up 50 to 31. CNN actually had Ryan slightly ahead, 48 to 44. But the poll caveats that it over sampled Republicans by eight per cent. Both polls show that Biden greatly exceeded expectations.
Ryan did well, keeping the base happy, appearing reasonable, and reasonably presidential. But Biden not only stopped the bleeding, but heartened Democrats with a minor transfusion. If as I suspect, he played better in Ohio than nationally, this is an even bigger win.
The table is set for Obama's debate on Tuesday. Hopefully, he will bring a sharper knife.
Whereas, Gore's sighs seemed phony and arrogant in the 2000 debates, Biden wears his heart on his face. The flash polls of those who watched the debate shows a win for Biden. CBS had him up 50 to 31. CNN actually had Ryan slightly ahead, 48 to 44. But the poll caveats that it over sampled Republicans by eight per cent. Both polls show that Biden greatly exceeded expectations.
Ryan did well, keeping the base happy, appearing reasonable, and reasonably presidential. But Biden not only stopped the bleeding, but heartened Democrats with a minor transfusion. If as I suspect, he played better in Ohio than nationally, this is an even bigger win.
The table is set for Obama's debate on Tuesday. Hopefully, he will bring a sharper knife.
Monday, October 8, 2012
Why the Debate Mattered
Free media either acts as an echo chamber for paid media or as a mute button. Obama wants this to be a choice election, while Romney's campaign wanted a referendum on the president. Obama won.
The second part of the game plan was to portray Romney as an uncaring, right wing extremist plutocrat. Obama enjoyed early success, but Romney's debate success muted that attack. For that reason the Obama campaign is attacking Romney as a flip flopper. That is more consistent with the debate, which featured a "new" Romney. It is some measure of success for Romney, that for the first time in the campaign, Obama is forced to change course.
The second part of the game plan was to portray Romney as an uncaring, right wing extremist plutocrat. Obama enjoyed early success, but Romney's debate success muted that attack. For that reason the Obama campaign is attacking Romney as a flip flopper. That is more consistent with the debate, which featured a "new" Romney. It is some measure of success for Romney, that for the first time in the campaign, Obama is forced to change course.
Saturday, October 6, 2012
Biden: His Time
Biden gaffes are fodder for late night comedians. He is the underdog for Thursday's debate in Danville Kentucky. But I fearlessly predict that it will be Ryan face down in the blue grass.
Biden is constantly underrated. He gave one of the best speeches at the convention. He is the Obama campaign's secret weapon in the midwest. Elites may laugh, and the right may snicker, because his blue collar roots are showing. But, he is a crowd please for that very reason.
Ryan may be able to see Canada from his front porch, but Biden has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Romney and Ryan saber rattle from the safety of their desks. Biden's son is a warrior.
If you bet on a long shot, the payoff is bigger. Biden will cross the wire first. Ryan will be bottled in bond, while Biden is enjoying some good sipping whiskey.
Biden is constantly underrated. He gave one of the best speeches at the convention. He is the Obama campaign's secret weapon in the midwest. Elites may laugh, and the right may snicker, because his blue collar roots are showing. But, he is a crowd please for that very reason.
Ryan may be able to see Canada from his front porch, but Biden has chaired the Senate Foreign Relations Committee. Romney and Ryan saber rattle from the safety of their desks. Biden's son is a warrior.
If you bet on a long shot, the payoff is bigger. Biden will cross the wire first. Ryan will be bottled in bond, while Biden is enjoying some good sipping whiskey.
Thursday, October 4, 2012
Prismatic
There is no lover more fickle than the media. When I worked in Congressman Anderson's presidential campaign, he was the fresh face with new ideas. We shot up to the low 20s in the polls before the press, and the public, got a collective case of buyer's remorse. We finished with 6.1% of the vote. Still the staff had cause to celebrate. Six per cent qualified us for matching funds. We all got paid.
Many on the right have believed that the polls are rigged and the press biased. Neither are true. But I am not the first to mention that reporting is filtered through the prism of the current story line. In every campaign there is a period in which a campaign is in crisis. Events are reported that fit the story line. Another tableau, is the tightening race. I suspect after the Denver debacle, that will be the next story line. The press loves this. A photo finish is better copy than a blow out. The press bias is for a story line, not a candidate.
About now Mr. Clooney is placing a call, telling the president to look into the camera or at the actor sharing the stage. The president is fiercely competitive. The next presidential debate will be exciting.
Many on the right have believed that the polls are rigged and the press biased. Neither are true. But I am not the first to mention that reporting is filtered through the prism of the current story line. In every campaign there is a period in which a campaign is in crisis. Events are reported that fit the story line. Another tableau, is the tightening race. I suspect after the Denver debacle, that will be the next story line. The press loves this. A photo finish is better copy than a blow out. The press bias is for a story line, not a candidate.
About now Mr. Clooney is placing a call, telling the president to look into the camera or at the actor sharing the stage. The president is fiercely competitive. The next presidential debate will be exciting.
Wednesday, October 3, 2012
Cambria Trip
Tuesday, October 2, 2012
Monday, October 1, 2012
A Very Romney Christmas
A presidential campaign is like a Christmas tree. It is decorated and enhanced through the months leading up to the election, but the tree is a constant. Obama's focus is the middle class.
The Romney campaign has been more like a series of small bushes, a new one for each news cycle. But the one constant is his across the board tax cut plan. It is a pale white artificial tree, at a time when the public clamors for natural. No matter how you dress it up, it looks fake.
Rich candidates win when their gifts are going to nascar fans, not nascar owners. Obama has two weaknesses, an anemic economy and robust debt growth. Tax cuts are no longer credible to cure the former, and worsen the latter. Romney's message should have been focused on the debt crisis. The issue plays to the base and independents. He could argue that 24 million jobs were created during the Clinton presidency because of a balanced budget. Economists probably would disagree, but it would have been a coherent campaign.
Instead of a glimmering Christmas tree, the Romney campaign is a turkey. Obama is giving thanks.
The Romney campaign has been more like a series of small bushes, a new one for each news cycle. But the one constant is his across the board tax cut plan. It is a pale white artificial tree, at a time when the public clamors for natural. No matter how you dress it up, it looks fake.
Rich candidates win when their gifts are going to nascar fans, not nascar owners. Obama has two weaknesses, an anemic economy and robust debt growth. Tax cuts are no longer credible to cure the former, and worsen the latter. Romney's message should have been focused on the debt crisis. The issue plays to the base and independents. He could argue that 24 million jobs were created during the Clinton presidency because of a balanced budget. Economists probably would disagree, but it would have been a coherent campaign.
Instead of a glimmering Christmas tree, the Romney campaign is a turkey. Obama is giving thanks.
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