Desperate to regain the White House, Republicans are setting records for primary turnout, but the Democrats have higher quality voters. Only 50% of GOP primary voters say they would be satisfied with Trump as their nominee. Rubio and Cruz do only slightly better. The GOP will have a party unity problem. The candidate will need to bring the coalition together before, if ever, pivoting to the center.
With a more content electorate, Democratic turnout is down 50% from 2008. But, over 70% of Democratic primary voters would be happy to have Hillary as their nominee, with Bernie only slightly behind. Party unity will be easy, turnout not so much. The answer for both problems is the same--demonize the opposition.
It may be hard to hit Trump's overly small hands, but his big mouth is an excellent target. The Donald has said something to offend and motivate every element of the Obama coalition
The conservative core of the Republican party hates Hillary. With reluctance and disdain, they will pull the lever for Trump even if they wash their hands afterwards.
Friday, March 4, 2016
Thursday, March 3, 2016
Who Won the Fox GOP Debate?
Now that the show is in reruns, pundits question whether voters will experience Trump fatigue. To date the answer is no. But Donald may be falling victim to the syndrome. After assuring us that he was well endowed, he seemed bored with the rest of his own responses.
Kasich had a very good night. He washed his hands while others were in a pissing contest. Although a solid insult to both, he is the Republican Hillary. Like Hillary he passionately believes in the principles of his party, but also like Hillary, he is more of a problem solver than an ideologue. As usual online polls have Trump as the winner, but for the first time Kasich is second. He will get a boost.
Rubio and Cruz were as expected. Cruz is a solicitor with a conservative core, and Marco is the young optimistic neocon. Neither made a mistake. Neither advanced their cause.
By not appearing, Dr. Ben had his best debate.
Kasich had a very good night. He washed his hands while others were in a pissing contest. Although a solid insult to both, he is the Republican Hillary. Like Hillary he passionately believes in the principles of his party, but also like Hillary, he is more of a problem solver than an ideologue. As usual online polls have Trump as the winner, but for the first time Kasich is second. He will get a boost.
Rubio and Cruz were as expected. Cruz is a solicitor with a conservative core, and Marco is the young optimistic neocon. Neither made a mistake. Neither advanced their cause.
By not appearing, Dr. Ben had his best debate.
Unconventional
The party establishment invariably wants to close the door on an open convention. With early success, the presumptive nominee can reposition, refocus and refinance for the fall. The convention is a four day informercial for the nominee and a bonding for the party factions.
By contrast a contested convention leaves the eventual nominee sullied, exhausted and financially and politically ill prepared for the general election. Factional fissures expand and emotions erupt, goaded by enraptured media. That a brokered convention is the last, best hope of the GOP establishment, tells you all you need to know about the state of the Republican party.
By contrast a contested convention leaves the eventual nominee sullied, exhausted and financially and politically ill prepared for the general election. Factional fissures expand and emotions erupt, goaded by enraptured media. That a brokered convention is the last, best hope of the GOP establishment, tells you all you need to know about the state of the Republican party.
Return to Tommy Town
Brave Journey is off to a spectacular start as a broodmare. Her first foal, Bully Pulpit, as a two year old won two races at Del Mar and is stakes placed on dirt and turf. Her second foal fetched a good price in the select yearling sale.
We traveled to Tommy Town in Santa Ynez to see our newest foal, a filly out of Decarchy that we named Oligarchy. It was a picture perfect day.
At least to our eyes, the ten day old filly was just as pretty.
We also saw our yearling, Campaigner. We nicknamed him swoosh because of his Nike like blaze.
He has grown considerably since our last visit.
His conformation is sound. A horse's power comes from behind. Our boy has a big butt.
From Santa Ynez we made our usual trek east to Melville and Babcock wineries for tastings.
We traveled to Tommy Town in Santa Ynez to see our newest foal, a filly out of Decarchy that we named Oligarchy. It was a picture perfect day.
At least to our eyes, the ten day old filly was just as pretty.
We also saw our yearling, Campaigner. We nicknamed him swoosh because of his Nike like blaze.
Wednesday, March 2, 2016
Trump Begins to Beg
Trump is the guy at a restaurant desperate for someone else at the table to pick up the check. A presidential race costs upwards of a billion dollars even if you already have a ground game in place as Hillary does. Trump does not.
Best estimates are that Trump has three hundred to four hundred million in liquid assets. Trump is too cheap to spend much of that. He has loaned about ten million to his campaign, and paid about 3 million back to himself for use of his plane, hotel space and banquet halls.
He needs the Republican party to fund his ground game. To get that he has started to kiss ass. On his website he has now posted a replacement for Obamacare, virtually identical to that of Paul Ryan, the titular head of the party. As recently as the last debate his full plan was to make insurance companies compete on a national basis.
The groveling has only begun. He may keep his pledge, and not have a SuperPac directly linked to his campaign, but he will look to Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and others to fund ads attacking Hillary. Trump is both the prince and the pauper.
Best estimates are that Trump has three hundred to four hundred million in liquid assets. Trump is too cheap to spend much of that. He has loaned about ten million to his campaign, and paid about 3 million back to himself for use of his plane, hotel space and banquet halls.
He needs the Republican party to fund his ground game. To get that he has started to kiss ass. On his website he has now posted a replacement for Obamacare, virtually identical to that of Paul Ryan, the titular head of the party. As recently as the last debate his full plan was to make insurance companies compete on a national basis.
The groveling has only begun. He may keep his pledge, and not have a SuperPac directly linked to his campaign, but he will look to Karl Rove, the Koch brothers and others to fund ads attacking Hillary. Trump is both the prince and the pauper.
Tuesday, March 1, 2016
Trump Disrespects Supporters
Trump may love the poorly educated, but they were kept out of his victory speech/press conference at the ballroom of his Mar-A-Lago resort. Peons are not allowed at his prestigious boutique property.
More importantly, he had time in his speech to do an infomercial for his company, but not to thank the volunteers who devoted their time to his campaign. He only obtusely thanked those who voted for him.
While there may not be an "I' in team, with Trump there certainly is one in candidate.
More importantly, he had time in his speech to do an infomercial for his company, but not to thank the volunteers who devoted their time to his campaign. He only obtusely thanked those who voted for him.
While there may not be an "I' in team, with Trump there certainly is one in candidate.
Trump's Self-Funding Myth
Trump is cheating his predominately lower income supporters. Like every candidate Trump has a big donate button on the front page of his website. His supporters contribute in support of Trump's self-funded campaign.
But Trump is not self-funding, he is self financing. He is loaning money to his campaign. At the end he can use any money contributed by supporters to repay the loan. In addition he is profiting from the campaign. To date the campaign has paid 2.2 million to a Trump subsidiary for the use of his plane.
Trump is still a penny pinching billionaire.
But Trump is not self-funding, he is self financing. He is loaning money to his campaign. At the end he can use any money contributed by supporters to repay the loan. In addition he is profiting from the campaign. To date the campaign has paid 2.2 million to a Trump subsidiary for the use of his plane.
Trump is still a penny pinching billionaire.
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