All polls have Bernie and Hillary within the margin of error in Iowa. Given the difficulty of determining who will caucus, the margin may be understated. Predicting is perilous.
Bernie has some advantages. He stands to the left of Hillary, which is hallowed ground in the Iowa Caucuses. Second, the only people of color in Iowa, have recently returned from wintering in Florida. Third, judging from the size of his crowds, and recent polls, he may have the momentum. Finally, the flare up of yet another email story could hurt Hillary.
Hillary's key to victory is the demographics and regional dispersion of her supporters. Bernie owns the youth vote, and could pile up big majorities in college towns. But the number of delegates awarded are pre determined and not impacted by the number of caucus goers. So Hillary's broader geographic base is an advantage.
Her supporters are older and more likely to have previously attended a caucus. Of course, that means her supporters are more likely to attend. But it means more. The threshold for caucus viability is 15% of the attendees. At most caucuses O'Malley will fall short, and attendees will be asked to align with Bernie or Hillary. Hillary's more experienced caucus goers should be better at the process. Bernie's may suffer from the naive arrogance of youth.
Looking at social media, quips go both ways, but the vitriol, invective and profanity are one sided. As soon as a college freshman tells a 50 year old librarian supporting O'Malley that she is an idiot to consider caucusing for Hillary, it will be all over.
An interesting counterpoint to my prediction from the PPP poll. “One thing that will likely cause things to tighten up on Monday night is that O’Malley’s supporters are far more likely to move to Sanders than Clinton at the sites where he fails to meet the 15% threshold. 57% of O’Malley voters say Sanders is their second choice to only 27% who say it’s Clinton.”
ReplyDeleteLarry, do you think Cruz jumped the shark with that mailer?
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