The year of Trump has ended. Will 2016 be a continuation? Four questions may hold the answer.
When it comes to having skin in the game, Trump has been the man in a burka. When his businesses fail, his employees are on the street, his suppliers are holding the bag, and his lenders are bottled in worthless bonds. Trump's gold plated life goes on unabated. So we ask, will his self financed campaign be more self, than finance?
His first ad does not answer the question. Production values are low, and the content is a repeat of his applause lines. The size of his ad buy has not been confirmed. Given his wealth of free media, ad spending is probably not the issue, but rather money spent on the ground. No where is this more important than Iowa.
Answering a pollster is not the same as spending 4 hours in a school gym on a cold winter night. To succeed you need paid organizers to develop and train precinct captains. Supporters must be contacted and recontacted. Getting supporters there is not the full game. Well schooled caucus goers pick up additional support from neighbors pledged to candidates who do not meet the threshold set for viability.
Second, will Donald's thin skin finally burn him. Already the flip side, his reaction to praise, has led to a strange bromance with Putin. Will he so overreact to an attack as to hemorrhage support?
Third, after portraying himself as a winner, can he survive a likely loss in Iowa?
Finally, is his high floor matched by a low ceiling? As the field narrows will his numbers stagnate while the remaining challengers gain ground?
Appropriately, we should know by April's Fool Day.
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