The Vindication of Hillary

 Hillary faced hurricane level headwinds.  She was bashed by her gender, decades of right wing media and most importantly, the meaningless email scandal that was reinvigorated in the closing weeks of her  campaign.  Trump was given unlimited free media.  She lost, but by the narrowest of margins.  

The autopsy of her campaign was bloody, brutal, and ultimately, wrong.  She nailed Trump in all three debates and made historic inroads into the hispanic electorate.  She won the popular vote.  Her sins were underperforming many state polls, and a travel schedule that slighted parts of the Midwest.

Biden look up residence in the Midwestern battleground states.  He stayed on a message made powerful by the mounting deaths caused by Trump's incompetent response to the pandemic.  Although he probably will eke out the narrowest of victories, his underperformance of the polls is historic.  The ballot excess over Clinton in the MidWest, although determinative, is de minimis. 

With the hindsight of 2020, we can now reevaluate 2016.  Trump is a far more formidable candidate than we knew.  He is able to tap into an unimaginably large reservoir of white non-college educated grievance.  His death defying rallies work. He is shameless, which allows him to lie and cheat in electoral politics as he did in business.  He befuddles pollsters.

Oh, Frack

After catching every light and cruising towards the presidency, the Biden campaign has hit an oil slick. Towards the end of Thursday's debate Biden awkwardly discussed transitioning from oil and fracking.  The campaign immediately began environmental cleanup, but the damage had been done.

The first quality post debate polls are in for Pennsylvania and Texas.  Sienna has Biden down 4 in Texas, more importantly, Insider Advantage has Biden down 2 in Pennsylvania.  Texas is not a shock, but this is the first reputable keystone state poll to show Trump ahead.  Only more polling will tell us if this is an outlier or a harbinger.  

The Answer

 Desperate to change the subject from the virus, the Trump campaign has focused on so called "court packing."  The media has joined the fray, and the Biden campaign has struggled for an answer.

Let me suggest an answer for Biden:  "I favor tradition, and will not propose adding justices to the Supreme Court.  But that is not a complete answer to your question.  If the House and the Senate seek to restore ideological balance to the court, will I veto their bill?

Judge Barrett has stated she would have voted to eliminate protection for pre-existing conditions, and to take away insurance for 20 million Americans.  She may follow her strong ideological bent, and refuse to honor precedent on gay marriage, and choice.   I will refrain from vetoing the bill if, and only if, restoring moderation on the court is the only way to protect healthcare and other fundamental rights."

The Orphan Party

The Pennsylvania Republican party is like the child who, having killed his parents, seeks clemency because he is an orphan.  

Counting mail-in ballots is labor intensive.  They must be removed from the envelope, signatures verified, checked for completeness, and then loaded into the vote counting machine.  That is why many states, like Florida and Colorado, allow early processing.  Early processing is critical with the pandemic amplified mail-in ballot surge.

Eagerly getting into the sickbed with Trump, the Pennsylvania Republican controlled legislature has festered fears of fraudulent ballots, particularly those that are not counted on election day.  They voted for an "election integrity committee" with broad powers.

To ensure the committee has ample opportunity to parlay paranoia, the GOP ensured that counting would take weeks.  They blocked any and all proposals to allow early processing of ballots.  Hopefully few voters will endorse adoption of this orphan party.

Know My Name

The most prominent jurist of her generation, Ruth Bader Ginsburg in life, created a more perfect union.  Her death could tear it asunder.

Politics does not stop for eulogies.  Everything RBG fought for is on the line.   The impact of another conservative on the Supreme Court is obvious.  The impact of the opening is less certain, but equally dangerous.

Through an apocalypse of fires in the west, hurricanes in the Southeast, and a nation ravaged by a plague, the presidential race has remained stable.  That has been good for Joe Biden.  

Every day the electorate focuses on the virus is good for Biden.  Changing the subject to the high court this late in the race may be a low blow.  Will it chase low propensity conservative voters to the polls, narrowing or obliterating his lead?  Or, can the talented Biden team turn the tables, as it did with "Law and Order," and neutralize the risk, and even bring their most flighty supporters to the ballot box?

If hypocrisy was a crime, the GOP senate caucus would convene in the prison yard.  Tit for tat, is not all that.  We need more.  Although the image of  buff and tattooed Rand Paul and Mitch McConnell pumping iron, does ease some of the pain.

After Trump announces his nominee, Biden must do the same.  He can choose someone who will electrify all of his supporters, or motivate just a key part of his base.  If willing, Michelle Obama comes to mind.  Her appeal is broad, but particularly strong with young voters and suburban women.  Alternatively, Biden could chose a prominent hispanic jurist.  Biden must seize the moment or be squeezed by history.

Florida Redemption

 In 2000, Florida gave us hanging chads, and no doubt, a similarly titled porn movie.  Florida was the land of constitutional gore.   But, all can be forgiven.

The 2000 recount was frantic, but not dangerous.  The two, decidedly main stream candidates, calmed their supporters.  Trump is different.   He has ranted that Democrats can only win by stealing the election, and that the getaway car will be mail in voting.   Not surprisingly, most Trump supporters will vote in person, while cognizant of Covid, most Biden backers plan to vote by mail.  

A probable scenario is the so-called red mirage.  In most battle ground states in person ballots are counted on the same day, but mail in ballots can take days, or even weeks.   If Trump is leading on election day, his supporters are primed to reject a different result when all ballots are counted.   Armed vigilantes, including white nationalists, will surround counting centers.  The red mirage could turn into blood in the streets.

But Florida can be our savior.  Florida does not accept ballots that arrive after election day.  In Florida, mail in ballots are often counted first.   If Biden wins Florida on election night, media will report that a blue wave has engulfed the red mirage.  Let the sunshine state cast its ever loving light on us.

Tragic Lane Change Kills Haley's Political Career

 The road to the 2024 GOP presidential nomination is congested.  Ted Cruz is in the right hand lane espousing balanced budgets and conservative values.  He is joined by Tom Cotton, who also straddles the Trump lane.  Marco Rubio keeps on making weird hand signals, so his lane is uncertain, but definitely small.   The Trump lane is clogged with Pence, Don Jr., Mike Pompeo, a bit of Cotton and a few other stragglers.

Before recklessly veering into the Trump pileup, Nikki Halley had a clear path.   She could run as the compassionate conservative following in the wake of George W. Bush, with the added benefits of an immigrant background, pigmentation and removal of the Confederate Flag from the South Carolina state house grounds.  

Merging with Trump was political malpractice.  If Republicans remain the party of Trump, she will never be Trumpy enough, compared to Pence and Trump's eldest son.  But if Trump floundered she was positioned to be the shiny, unsullied object of political affection.