Friday, March 27, 2020

Misread

My career as an employment lawyer included cases of discrimination and sexual harassment.  Harassment cases were the most likely to have a kernel of truth.   Whether or not it met the bar for legal harassment, usually some act had occurred.  So my tendency is to give great credibility to a complaint.

Circulating on twitter, and in right wing media, is an allegation by a short term former Biden staffer, Tara Reade, that in 1993 she was digitally penetrated by the former Vice President.  Even with my tendency to credit such claims, this appears spurious.

In 2019 she had a column published in Medium about her mistreatment as a staffer for then Senator Joe Biden.  She claims that she was asked to be a cocktail server at a fundraiser, because Bidden though she had nice legs, but also noted she was cautioned not to dress sexy at the event.  More importantly, she repeated the often made complaints of non sexual touching, in this case of her shoulder and neck.

Markedly missing is the much more sexually explicit claim.  Certainly it is understandable and common for a woman to go many years before asserting a claim of harassment.  But quite unusual is to mention shoulder touching and leave out sexual assault.

The article is also ambiguous about whether she quit or was fired.  She vaguely implies that she complained, but is quite unclear whether she ever mentioned the touching.

In 2019 she remembered shoulder touching in 1993, but did not remember digital penetration until Joe Biden became the presumptive Democratic nominee in 2020.

Also curiously she recently deleted her string of tweets which passionately embraced Putin and Russia.  Just a little suspicious.

Sunday, March 22, 2020

High Sea Robbery

Carnival Corporation, owner of Carnival and Princess lines, wants to commit high sea robbery.  These petri dishes of the sea, pay nothing to you and me.  Below is a section from their financial filing know as a 10K.  They claim to be exempt from U.S. Taxes. Additionally all their ships fly foreign flags, and virtually no Americans work in their crews.  So if they pay no taxes to us, we should pay no tax payer funded bailout to them.

XX. Taxation
A summary of our principal taxes and exemptions in the jurisdictions where our significant operations are located is as follows:
a. U.S. Income Tax
We are primarily foreign corporations engaged in the business of operating cruise ships in international transportation. We also own and operate, among other businesses, the U.S. hotel and transportation business of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours through U.S. corporations.
Our North American cruise ship businesses and certain ship-owning subsidiaries are engaged in a trade or business within the U.S. Depending on its itinerary, any particular ship may generate income from sources within the U.S. We believe that our U.S. source income and the income of our ship-owning subsidiaries, to the extent derived from, or incidental to, the international operation of a ship or ships, is currently exempt from U.S. federal income and branch profit taxes.
Our domestic U.S. operations, principally the hotel and transportation business of Holland America Princess Alaska Tours, are subject to federal and state income taxation in the U.S.


Saturday, March 21, 2020

Time

Like a broken clock, even Trump can have a rare moment of inadvertent clarity.  Following his natural tendencies to exclude "the other," blocking flights from China was correct.  But it did not save lives.

Rather it bought us time, that could have been used to save lives.   Pandemics do not respect borders for long.  All experts warned it was coming.

We had time to buy, and develop, tests so the virus could be tracked, and its spread limited.  We had time to acquire masks and respirators.  We had time to build temporary  hospitals.

Instead, our president sold the time he bought at a loss.

Friday, March 20, 2020

Friendly Skies, Troubled Waters

Lobbyists are twinkling around the GOP stimulus Christmas Tree.  Some will shine bright, others must be turned off.

Airlines are essential, but cruise ships are not.  Airlines serve business as well as recreational needs.  Cruise ships are merely recreational.  Airlines employ Americans, by and large, cruise ships do not.  Working seven days a week, while squeezing into a shared bunk bed for nominal wages, has no 1st world takers.

The lights getting the juice must be visible.  The proposed bill includes 150 billion in discretionary  dollars.  Even if the GOP proposes on bended knee, we must say no.  Equally important, as with the 2008 bailout, a carefully appointed committee must approve all grants and loans.  Trump has the girth of Santa Claus, but not the equanimity.  

Friday, February 21, 2020

Nevada Debate Winners and Losers

WINNERS

Elizabeth Warren

In a New York minute she took the bloom off the billionaire ex-mayor.  She knew the abc's of nda's.  She was passionate and aggressive, arresting her downward spiral with a strong bid back into the top tier.

Joe Biden

Like Elizabeth, Joe needed to stop the bleeding.  Biden had his best debate, avoiding the destruction derby in the moderate lane.  Biden's early problems fueled the Bloomberg surge.  Bloomberg's collisions, cleared the path for Joe.

Bernie Sanders

His one note semi-socialist samba, remains atop the Democratic hit parade.  Like Dewars Scotch, Bernie never varies.  That was enough, on a night when Bloomberg drew the heat.  Bernie left the stage, relatively unscathed.  That is enough for the front runner.

LOSERS

Mike Bloomberg

As a technocrat, debating has never been a strength. But on Wednesday he was clearly not ready for prime time.  A record 20 million viewers tuned in to see the man behind the ads.  He looked like New Coke.  Well promoted, but not a keeper.  No doubt all his well shod horses, and well paid men will be able to put his image back together again.  A few hundred million in ads can save the day, provided he does not lay an egg in the next debate.

Pete Buttigieg and Amy Klobuchar

Pete wove his usual word spell.  Amy had grit and wit.  But the fight between the two, usually polite Midwesterners, was to the detriment of both.  They are drawing from the same pool of voters.  Their tiff could have a few voters swimming away.

Tom Steyer 

Out of sight, out of mind.  Failing to qualify, nullified the opportunity fo show 20 million viewers that he is the good billionaire.

Wednesday, February 12, 2020

New Hampshire Winners and Losers

Winners

Amy Klobuchar

She was outspent, battled low name recognition, and had the smallest organization on the ground of the major candidates.  But her message, and her debate performance, propelled her to a strong third place showing.  She rocked the Granite State.

Pete Buttigieg

Double the pleasure, double the fun.  After two contests this mayor of the 4th largest city in Indiana has won the most delegates.  His vote total in New Hampshire was close enough to that of Sanders to allow him to equal Bernie's delegate haul from the state.

Losers

Elizabeth Warren

Although she edged out Bidden for 4th place, she was the biggest loser of the night.  She entered the primary with major advantages.  Half of the population of New Hampshire is in the Boston media market.  So as the Senator of Massachusetts she is well known.  Her ground game was said to be the best, no doubt helped by the relative proximity to her campaign headquarters.

She has no obvious path forward.  She was crushed geographically, demographically and ideologically. Other than her home state, she will never again have the proximity advantage she enjoyed in New Hampshire.  Her campaign for college educated women, was trounced by Pete, and even more so by Amy.  Bernie owns the progressive wing of the party.  Her narrow lane is to the right of Bernie, and to the left of Pete and Amy.  To date that is a road less traveled.

Joe Bidden

In both Iowa and New Hampshire, the Bidden argument that electability trumped ideology prevailed, based on exit polls.  Unfortunately in New Hampshire he was not regarded as the most likely candidate to beat Trump.

As the former Vice President, and long time front runner, his fifth place finish was a shocking disappointment.  In this topsy turvy political world, Trump's impeachment may have hurt Joe more than it hurt Trump.  But unlike, Elizabeth, Joe still has a path forward.  If he can retain his lead with Black voters, he can make a stand in South Carolina.

Bernie Sanders

Yes, he won.  Yes, he got the most votes in Iowa.  Yes, with a crowded field of moderates, and Warren flailing, he has the clearest path to the nomination.  But his New Hampshire win has more caveats than caviar.  As the Senator from a neighboring state, he crushed it in 2016 with 60 percent of the vote and a 20 point victory.  In 2020 he got just over a quarter of the vote, winning by less than 2 per cent.  The split in the moderate vote, allowed him to squeeze out a narrow win.

But New Hampshire undermined the electoral rationale for his candidacy.  Moderates path to victory is wooing independents and disaffected Republicans, particularly suburban women.  The Bernie strategy is to grow the base by bringing in disaffected voters, particularly the young.  Young  voters, as a percentage of the electorate, dropped dramatically from 2016.  Bernie has a path to the nomination, but a road block in the general election.

The Dropouts

Andrew Yang and Michael Bennett pinned their hopes on New Hampshire.  Neither did well enough to stay in the race.  I hope to see Yang in the next Democratic administration.  We need a futurist.

Thursday, January 30, 2020

Profiles in Cowardice

The New Testament Sentiment, "Forgive them, they know not what they do," does not apply to Republican legislators.  Not even Christian charity permits deriding GOP Senators and Congressman as merely ignorant. With few exceptions, attaining legislative office requires above average intelligence.

No, the GOP is knowingly counting down the end of the American Century.  Starting with the Marshal Plan and continuing with NATO, America has preached from the pulpit with its economic, moral and military superiority.  Congregants sang our hymn.  Allies enjoyed stability, and America prospered.

Trump, in ways both large and small, with GOP acquiescence, has emptied the pews.   On the micro level, Trump's disdain has crippled the State Department.  The ranks have not been decimated, for that is a mere drop of 10%.  Rather nearly 50% of the top two tiers of department professionals have departed.  Institutional knowledge is gone, phones go unanswered.  Opportunities are lost, international respect vanishes.  As in a horse, these micro fractures may go undiagnosed, but eventually lead to unsoundness and even the loss of life.

On the macro scale, an unfettered Trump, is shunning the support of our allies, and instead courting authoritarian regimes.  Many believe the reason is Trump's authoritarian tendencies.  That may have an influence, but the full truth is more dire.  Authoritarians can, by fiat, satisfy Trump's greed, liberal democracies have procedural guard rails.  Saudi Arabia has loaned hundreds of millions to Trump and  to the Kushners.  China has awarded Ivanka valuable trademarks.  Perhaps to launder money, Russian oligarchs have been prime purchasers of Trump properties.

Where greed leaves off, ignorance takes the floor.  Tump is a one man Know Nothing Party, ignoring briefings and rational analysis in favor of impulse.

Republican officeholders know Trump's failings, but would rather creep to reelection than stand tall.