Hillary Will Win Iowa

All polls have Bernie and Hillary within the margin of error in Iowa.  Given the difficulty of determining who will caucus, the margin may be understated.  Predicting is perilous.

Bernie has some advantages.  He stands to the left of Hillary, which is hallowed ground in the Iowa Caucuses.  Second, the only people of color in Iowa, have recently returned from wintering in Florida.  Third, judging from the size of his crowds, and recent polls, he may have the momentum. Finally, the flare up of yet another email story could hurt Hillary.

Hillary's key to victory is the demographics and regional dispersion of her supporters.  Bernie owns the youth vote, and could pile up big majorities in college towns.  But the number of delegates awarded are pre determined and not impacted by the number of caucus goers.  So Hillary's broader geographic base is an advantage.

Her supporters are older and more likely to have previously attended a caucus.  Of course, that means her supporters are more likely to attend.  But it means more.  The threshold for caucus viability is 15% of the attendees.  At most caucuses O'Malley will fall short, and attendees will be asked to align with Bernie or Hillary.  Hillary's more experienced caucus goers should be better at the process. Bernie's may suffer from the naive arrogance of youth.

Looking at social media, quips go both ways, but the vitriol, invective and profanity are one sided.  As soon as a college freshman tells a 50 year old librarian supporting O'Malley that she is an idiot to consider caucusing for Hillary, it will be all over.

Front Page

Donald Trump is a newspaper with banner headlines, but no stories.  Unfortunately, the biggest news is that a plurality of Republicans either believe he has the depth and breath to be President, or don't care that he doesn't.

But Republicans finally damned Ben's softly babbling brook.  Perhaps one day they will condemn Trump's campaign to the obituary page.

Grandpa Bernie

Sanders is the dotting grandfather.  He can give or promise anything.  Single payer medical coverage and cost free college are the frosting on a magical calorie free confection.

But after the weekend sugar high, it is time to come home to Hillary.  She has fought the healthcare wars and knows it is a near miracle that we passed Obamacare.  She understands that she just might be able to fund, and  enact, tuition free community college and cut the interest rate on student loans.  Governing, like parenting, is not art, but rather the art of the deal.

If idealists, and demonic GOP strategists, like Karl Rove, get their way, Bernie will be the nominee.  The resulting Republican victory will be a bitter pill to swallow.

Christie is Pro-Choice

No, Chris has not changed his position on reproductive rights.  Rather he has weighed in on something nearer and dearer to his heart, namely his stomach.  School children should not suffer the tyranny of Michelle Obama's healthy lunch initiative.  Choosing french fries over spinach is a god given right.

Chris Christie is ever the exemplar of caloric correctness.

Failing Flint

For most of us the Flint Crisis is a one off--a perfect storm of inadvertence, incompetence and inattention.  Unfortunately, it is an extreme example of a systemic Republican flaw.  The GOP is anti-science.

A broad swath of the party shuns evolution and ridicules climate change.  Environmental impact studies are regulatory choke points that strangle free enterprise.  No Democratic governor would have changed the tap water without first tapping expert analysis.

The Republican let it flow philosophy damned the children of Flint.

New Hampshire Surge

Back in September I predicted that Kasich would be the GOP nominee, and have looked foolish ever since.  http://phoodphotospolitics.blogspot.com/2015/09/the-case-for-kasich.html

Recent polls have him moving into second place in New Hampshire.  Little mentioned in the conversation of the likely establishment candidate to take on Cruz and Trump, Kasich could emerge with a strong showing in the nation's first primary.

The 4th Democratic Debate

Bernie struck two notes with clarion clarity.  Break up the big banks and get big money out of politics.  But two notes does not a symphony make.

Hillary conducted the Democratic 4th with a firm hand.  She intoned Flint with bravissimo,  Putin with tinkling irony, and pounded gun control with a relentless staccato.  Bernie has made inroads with the youth symphony, but Clinton appears best suited to lead the band.

While there were no losers, Hillary won the debate.