2028

Two numbers are important, 61, Liz Cheney's age, in 7 years, and 2028, the year she intends to be the Republican nominee for president.   As all the other presidential aspirants cruise down to Mar-a-Lago to kiss the ring, they have left the diamond lane wide open for Cheney.  Nikki Haley was the last candidate in the southern caravan.

Right now Trumpism looks like the favorite.  But handicapping is about searching for value, a risk reward scenario.  Cheney's truth telling is sincere, but is also the right political play.  The Trump lane is so full that Liz would be blocked off if she took that path.

Trump could topple.  Behind a popular president, Democrats could rally in 2022.  Trump, or his designee, could lose badly in 2024.  Trump could transition from his blue suit to an orange jump suit.  If Trump is discredited, Cheney could move forward toward the 2028 nomination while the other aspirants back track.

The Cheney gambit: sacrifice a house seat for the oval office.

Post Policy Party

 No matter how big the tent, each party has traditionally had an inner sanctum of revered principles.  For Republicans, these were limited government, reducing the national debt, strong defense,  and strident opposition to China and Russia as communist states.  But, after birthing an abomination, the GOP has postpartum regression.

A party toppling Liz Cheney from leadership has no core.  Cheney rests securely on the bedrock of conservatism, with high grades from the American Conservative Union, and the Heritage Action Group.

Cheney voted with Trump 92% of the time, her likely successor, Elise Stefanik, sided with him on only 77% of her votes.  But Elise is unctuous in her praise of the former president, Cheney, not so much.

The lack of policy is echoed by the GOP Senate Leader.  Mitch McConnell told reporters that, "one hundred per cent of my focus is on stopping this new administration."  Blind, unyielding opposition is not a system of beliefs.  Republicans offer no competing vision.  

America deserves better.

The Lesson of Liz

Only a few Republicans have the courage or political impunity to cross Trump.  The vast majority of the party falls into two camps, those who voraciously devour every lie he places on their plate, and those who discretely spit it out into their napkins.

The groups are represented by three house votes.  Even after the January 6th insurrection 140 Republicans in Congress publicly voted to overturn the free and fair election.   Only a tenacious ten voted in favor of impeachment.  Those ten have paid a price.  They have received death threats, been censured by their state parties and promised primary challenges.

For the temerity of her vote, Liz Cheney faced a challenge to her leadership position in the Republican Caucus.  Fortunately for her, the vote was by secret ballot.  With their anonymity assured, the 140 insurrection appeasers dwindled to a mere 61 Cheney removers.

The lesson is clear.  Republicans hide in the light, but, like roaches, scuttle around freely in the dark.  Profiles in courage was a book about another era.  Forced to choose, Republicans choose career over conscience.  The impeachment trial must end with a secret ballot.

As if living in a bygone era, law professors object, extolling the importance of transparency and fearing a dangerous precedent.  But, we do not live in a proud time, we live in a time of Proud Boys.  Presidential impeachment trials are too rare, only three, and no convictions, to generate precedent.

A coup attempt without consequences, is a far greater threat to the republic, than allowing Republican Senators a shroud of secrecy..

   

Moral Bankruptcy

Trump is famous for his bankruptcies.  Many of us who have fallen victim to the house edge at the tables or the slots, have pondered how a casino could loose money.  But far worse. and even more inexplicable, was squandering the post World War II moral capital that had been so carefully hoarded and invested by past presidents.

Attacking our democratic allies while penning love letters to autocrats siphoned resources as did caging children, and tearing infants from their mothers.  But the final blow was undermining confidence in our system of free and fair elections.  The big lie soundly rejected by 60 courts, still echoes in the hearts of many Trump voters.

Without our moral beacon spotlighting atrocities, despots felt immune.  Putin poisoned Navalny, and when he survived, and had the temerity to return, sentenced him to prison.  As citizens, our recourse against Trump was at the ballot box.  Navalny has the right to eviscerate Trump.

Trump Detests Law Enforcement

 Mafia movies seduce us into identifying with, and even rooting for, murderers and thieves.  But when we leave the flickering lights, most of us reacquire our moral compass.  Not so for our former president who wants to be Don Trumpleone.

Pardons tell the tale.  In 2017, in Nisour Square, five Blackwater mercenaries killed 17 innocent Iraqis, and injured 20 more, including women and children.   The wanton moral depravity was a diplomatic disaster.  One of the contractors, Jeremy Ridgeway, stepped up,  He testified for the prosecution, exhibited remorse and plead guilty to manslaughter.  The other four were unrepentant. Trump pardoned the blood thirsty four, and left Jeremy Ridgeway to serve out his term.

In many major cases informants are a godsend.  For criminals, and Trump, informants are rats.  Trump used that very term for his former attorney, Michael Cohen.  In contrast he extolled, and pardoned, Roger Stone and Paul Manafort who refused to cooperate with law enforcement.

Tragically, a capital police officer was killed in the January 6 riot.  At the capitol, the flag flew at half mast.  At the White House the flag was atop the poll, loud and proud.  For Donald Trump, blue lives do not matter.

The Absence of Aaron

 It is often said that absence makes the heart grow fonder.  The absence of a healthy Aaron Donald against Green Bay, proved his greatness as much, or more, than his disruptive defense during the prior 17 games.

The few brave souls who predicted a Rams victory, relied on the Rams number one defense slowing down the Packer offense and generating a turnover, coupled with the running of Cam Akers.  Both the legion of Packer backers, and the few Ram ramblers, agreed that the erratic Goff was the weak link.  Further many believed Green Bay would load up the box to force the game into Goff's thumb impaired hand.

Everyone was wrong.  Akers had a decent day averaging 5 yard per carry on 18 attempts, with a touch down and a two point conversion.  Goff was excellent completing 22 of 29 passes with a TD and no turnovers.  The scant 18 points was as much due to the Packer edge in  time of possession, as any failings on his part.

The Packers offense dominated the game both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams possessions were limited.  The absence of their superman converted the top defense to middle of the pack at best.  Donald disrupts run plays by drawing double teams, and by skirting into the backfield to stop a play before it starts.

In the passing game he is even more dominant.  Drawing double and triple teams he opened the path for Leonard Floyd, Morgan Fox and others to have career years.  Even fighting through double teams he had double digit sacks and lead the league in quarterback hurries.  The secondary benefited in three ways.  With a successful pass rush from the front four, seven could drop back into coverage.  With quarterbacks having less time to throw, corners faced fewer double moves and did not have to maintain coverage for long.  Finally, harried QBs throw errant passes allowing grateful corners and safeties to pick them off.

Without a heathy Donald, Packer runners tore through the center of the Rams.  Rogers had time to read a book.  Darius Williams was victim of a double move for a long reception.  Lazard had time to get behind the Rams secondary for the 58 yard touch down that sealed the game.  

Bitter About Twitter

 Congress shall make no law respecting an establishment of religion, or prohibiting the free exercise thereof; or abridging the freedom of speech, or of the press; or the right of the people peaceably to assemble, and to petition the Government for a redress of grievances.

Banning Trump from Twitter, and other platforms, does not violate the first amendment above.  Only the government is precluded from limiting speech.  But even the government may act to prevent a clear and present danger.

To explain the rule the most common example is that a person does not have the right to yell fire in a crowded theater.  Meanwhile, my spin is that if someone does yell fire, the theater has the right to refuse to sell him a ticket to the next show.  That is what Twitter has done in accordance with its guidelines.

We pay a high price for the right to post pictures of our cats on Facebook or to rant on Twitter. Algorithms silo us into news bins that reinforce our beliefs rather than broaden our knowledge.  Facts are segregated.   No real alternative exists to the major platforms, leaving public discourse to the whims of large corporations.

Flaws aside, social media cannot be faulted for silencing the President.