The Absence of Aaron

 It is often said that absence makes the heart grow fonder.  The absence of a healthy Aaron Donald against Green Bay, proved his greatness as much, or more, than his disruptive defense during the prior 17 games.

The few brave souls who predicted a Rams victory, relied on the Rams number one defense slowing down the Packer offense and generating a turnover, coupled with the running of Cam Akers.  Both the legion of Packer backers, and the few Ram ramblers, agreed that the erratic Goff was the weak link.  Further many believed Green Bay would load up the box to force the game into Goff's thumb impaired hand.

Everyone was wrong.  Akers had a decent day averaging 5 yard per carry on 18 attempts, with a touch down and a two point conversion.  Goff was excellent completing 22 of 29 passes with a TD and no turnovers.  The scant 18 points was as much due to the Packer edge in  time of possession, as any failings on his part.

The Packers offense dominated the game both on the ground and through the air.  The Rams possessions were limited.  The absence of their superman converted the top defense to middle of the pack at best.  Donald disrupts run plays by drawing double teams, and by skirting into the backfield to stop a play before it starts.

In the passing game he is even more dominant.  Drawing double and triple teams he opened the path for Leonard Floyd, Morgan Fox and others to have career years.  Even fighting through double teams he had double digit sacks and lead the league in quarterback hurries.  The secondary benefited in three ways.  With a successful pass rush from the front four, seven could drop back into coverage.  With quarterbacks having less time to throw, corners faced fewer double moves and did not have to maintain coverage for long.  Finally, harried QBs throw errant passes allowing grateful corners and safeties to pick them off.

Without a heathy Donald, Packer runners tore through the center of the Rams.  Rogers had time to read a book.  Darius Williams was victim of a double move for a long reception.  Lazard had time to get behind the Rams secondary for the 58 yard touch down that sealed the game.  

Caps Off to the Rams

No, this is not a congratulatory note for the Rams turn around, although it is certainly deserved.  Rather it is about the off season moves they will need to sustain their momentum.

The Rams have roughly 50 million in cap space for 2018 and nearly 100 million in 2019.  That is not enough.  They will either have to lose some key players to free agency or create more cap space.

Most important, is retaining Aaron Donald.  Although he has a year left on his contract, the Rams know they need to get a deal done.  In order of importance here are key Rams who become free agents in 2018:  Lamarcus Joyner, Trumaine Johnson, John Sullivan, Nickell Robley-Coleman, Sammy Watkins, Conner Baldwin,  Matt Longacre and Cody Davis.

Joyner rates out as one of the top safeties in the league, but should cost much less to sign than Trumaine Johnson.  The Rams will sign him, but the cost will be in the 7 to 9 million a year range.  The Rams would love to keep Trumaine, but my guess is they will not go much over 10 million a year.  If they lose him, the plus side is than he will garner a big enough contract to net the Rams a 3rd round compensatory pick in the 2018 draft.  The same applies to Sammy Watkins.  He did not have a great year. But he stretches the field, and if in better sync with Goff could have an impressive 2018.  On a number of occasions, Goff under threw him on long passes, including against Atlanta.  The Rams will probably sign him if 5-7 million a year works.  If he wants more, the Rams will take the draft choice. Because of limited cap space in 2018, I challenge those who suggest that Watkins will get a franchise tag.

John Sullivan literally centered the Rams offensive line, and most importantly, stayed healthy.  Hopefully they can sign him for 3 years at about 4-5 million a year.  Particularly if they lose Trumaine, the Rams need to sign Nickell, their nickel back.  Conner Baldwin is worth keeping at a reasonable price, particularly if the Rams let Robert Quinn go.  With holes in the secondary, the Rams will keep Cody Davis, at a nominal cost.  He is an exclusive rights free agent.  The same should be true of Matt Longacre, a restricted rights free agent.

How do the Rams add to their cap space.? The obvious, but wrong, answer is Tavon Austin.  He was grossly overpaid in 2017, given his limited contribution.  Dumping Austin saves the Rams nearly 10 million in 2019 and 2020, but only 3 million in 2018.  In 2018 Austin counts for 5 million on his prorated bonus which is dead money if he is dropped or traded.  His salary is only 3 million in 2018.  So at a cost of 3 million Austin may be worth keeping, or tradable.

The odd man out is almost certainly Robert Quinn.  Dropping him saves the Rams 10 million this year, and nearly 12 million in 2019.  He is still good, but not that good.

The success in free agency will determine the Rams' draft priorities.  Certainly they will look to add to their secondary.  Even if the Rams retain John Sullivan, they need help on the offensive line.   The Rams were the only team in the NFL to have the same 5 starters for the whole season.  Big holes for Gurley, and a clean pocket for Goff, were the result.  The Rams need a versatile backup, and will most likely spend at least a 3rd round draft choice to do it.

To remain a contender the Rams need a 2018 offseason as strong as their 2017 regular season.