MisReed

Ralph Reed has long been the political baby face of the conservative evangelical movement.  He is sticking with Trump, because "His support is not about shared values, but shared issues."

Have evangelical leaders sold their souls?  If the evangelical movement does not stand for values, what is its purpose?  

Cart Before the Horse

The presidential candidate is usually the work horse pulling the party forward with a strong ground game.  Clinton, like Obama before her, has filled the battlegrounds with field offices and staff.  This may be most meaningful for the bottom of the ballot, state legislative races.

The least financed races benefit most, from efforts at the top.  Trump is running a very different campaign.  Rather than pulling the load, he is asking the local and state party apparatus to push him forward.  He has outsourced the ground game to them.

Well financed Senate and Gubenatorial races, may be able to pick up the slack.  But Democrats should see a resurgence in state houses, which down the road, will help with redistricting.

Lost in the Cornfields

The election may already be over.  Even if Trump plows through electorally rich Ohio and Florida, and pulls out Nevada and North Carolina, he needs Iowa's 6 electoral votes to get to the magic number of 270.

Before the presidential debate he had a slight lead in the Iowa polls, but not enough staff to harvest votes.  Early voting started in late September.   Clinton's likely post debate upsurge, coupled with her ground game, means that her early bird may have already caught the worm.

Needle in Neutral

The debate went much as I predicted in my prior post.  Pence was dollars ahead on style.  His talk show experience was evident.  On that front Kaine was worse than I expected.  His stock in trade is likability.  As a good soldier he aggressively charged forward in a way that some, such as Biden, can bring off, but not Kaine. He was ill served by the campaign.

Not unexpectedly, even with a CNN poll that had more Democratic respondents, Pence won 48 to 42.  But Kaine, who lost the battle, may yet win the war.  Pence was calm and presidential.   Many in the GOP may take some solace about the bottom of their ticket, and even envision him as a future nominee.  Pence helped Pence.

Pence was not a good soldier.  He was too busy bucking for a promotion.  He did little to defend Trump.  Denying he or Trump made various statements, helped sweeten his night, but will sour the day.  He lied.  Every crazy statement Kaine attributed to Trump was true and verifiable.  Pence's hawkish foreign policy positions were inconsistent with the belligerent dove, at the top of the ticket.

Pence won the night on style points, Kaine will edge him tomorrow on truth and substance.  The result will be no change, which is good for Hillary.

Bottoms Up

Tonight Mike Pence has key superficial advantages.  He is better looking, has a more sonorous voice, and based on years as a talk show host, a smoother delivery.  But he is at a substantive disadvantage.  The top of the ticket, who he must defend, is a bottom feeder.

Kaine is likable, and has less ground to defend.  At the end of the night, I doubt the needle will move.

Her Own Private Iowa

Iowa is a demographic diaspora for Hillary.  The state has virtually no minorities, and less than a quarter of the population has a college education.

But with the early voting window open, light is shining through.  No post debate polls have dropped, but her numbers must be at, or near, a high point.  She may have the state largely to herself.  She has the larger organization and hordes of surrogates to get out the vote.

Hillary may steal Iowa while Trump tweets.

Millennial Madness

Working class Americans have often voted against their economic interest, lured by a GOP cynical clarion call on social issues.  Sadly millennials are falling into a similar trap.  Their purity of purpose is sullying their future.

The most recent poll has millennials at 31% for Clinton, 29% for Johnson and 26% for Trump.  Now lets look at positions on key issues.

Favors government action on Climate Change:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Debt Free College Tuition:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Raising Minimum Wage:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No
Displayed Foreign Policy Knowledge:  Clinton--Yes, Johnson--No, Trump--No

Johnson does win on one.
Legalizing Marijuana:  Clinton--No, Johnson--Yes, Trump--No

So millennials, I  have one question.  What have you been smoking?