Mobility

The American Dream is a bumper sticker without a bumper.  Upward mobility, symbolized by 1950s automobiles, has jammed in a massive pile up.   Public transportation is needed.

In the aftermath of WWII, America was largely unscathed, and at full industrial production.   Our allies were crippled by a costly victory, and axis powers, by an even more crippling defeat.  American industrial might was unchallenged.  The big three auto makers, facing no credible competition, could afford to buy labor peace rather than squeeze every dollar out of union negotiations.

The middle class surged.  Workers could put their children through college, and maybe even have a little vacation cottage on a lake in northern Michigan.  Charitably, this is the great America symbolized by the Trump sea of red hats.  But reversion to the mean, is a social, as well as statistical, reality.  Globalization was inevitable.  Not even the unlikely return of industrial jobs, would herald the return of 1950s industrial salaries.

Third world level income inequality, is the product of social stagnation.  A permanent under class will eventually become self aware, with dire consequences.  Therein lies the appeal of Elizabeth Warren's plan to tax the ultra wealthy to subsidize college tuition.

Education increases income.  We can argue about details of taxation and tuition subsidies.  We can consider steps to slow the rise in the cost of a college education and alternatives to traditional colleges.  But high paying industrial jobs are the shiny chrome of the past.  The glow of the future is on computer screens and smart phones.   We need a new path to upward mobility.

The Mueller Opus

The report reprises some greatest hits, like the Trump Tower Meeting, with some hidden treasures, and unexplored "B"sides.  Highlights include Don McGhan's multiple takes of "Stop in the Name of Law," Michael Cohen's "Sing, Sing Sing," and Sarah Sanders' soulless rendition of "I Didn't Hear it Through the Grapevine."

The liner notes make clear the necessity for this concept piece.  On multiple levels, a hostile foreign power interfered in the 2016 election ,with the open encouragement of one of the campaigns.  Meetings were frequent, and polling data was exchanged.  Unlike a witch hunt, which always finds a witch, Mueller judiciously determined there was not enough evidence for the crime of conspiracy.  Shell casings were everywhere, but no smoking gun.

Side two, obstruction, was a clearer case.  Ugliness is in the eye of the beholder.   For anyone not holding temporary presidential immunity,  what I read was so fulsome as to earn a long stay at Folsom prison.  Criminality aside,  by word and deed, scrupulously attributed to Trump's handpicked associates, this creature of chaos, narcissism and veniality is a blot on our history.

The report should not play softly in the back of your mind like a Miles Davis rift,  It should be cranked up to full punk band intensity.  Our system of free elections was attacked by Russia, and our president is without a particle of patriotism.  Where is his outrage?  He is too filled with self love to have any room for love of country.

Why Not Bernie?

The three most important things in real estate are, location, location and location.  In the 2020 presidential election the three most important things are beat Trump, beat Trump, and beat Trump.  Senator Sanders is a man of integrity, worthy of our respect, but not of our vote.  Although he can raise money, and the spirits of the young, he is the least likely candidate to beat Trump.

At no time during the 2016 campaign, nor since, has Trump's approval rating topped fifty per cent.  As such, he cannot win, but he can make his opponent lose.  He will never be the vessel of our hopes, but rather the alternative to our fears.  In 2020 he will run against the radical Democrats, embodied by the term socialism.

Socialism is not scary to millennials, but it spooks the suburbs that carried us to victory in the midterms, and that will be crucial in 2020.  Bernie is a proud, self proclaimed, Democratic Socialist.  Democratic will he as silent as the "h" in herbs.  Socialist will be loud and booming.

Loud and booming is another Bernie problem.  Many of the Obama voters who subsequently backed Trump have expressed a desire for another Obama; someone diplomatic and cerebral.  Other than Trump, Bernie is the loudest and most bombastic candidate.  Granted he is a truth teller with substance, but his style is all wrong.  After 2 years of chaos, we do not want to be yelled at.  Bernie's stage whisper would make us cry for Evita.

Getting back to real estate, location does indeed matter.  Democrats have about 200 electoral votes locked up.  The remaining 70 must come either from the Midwest or the Southwest.  As a proud son of Vermont, Bernie is from the wrong region.  Biden, Klobuchar, and Mayor Pete have midwestern roots, while Beto and Castro could put Texas and Arizona in play.

In 2020, we must play to win.

Keep Santa Anita Open

Voices, from the shrill PETA to the softer timbre of the Los Angeles Times, have called for the suspension of racing at Santa Anita.  The pouring rains brought an outpouring of horror as over 20 beautiful animals died in races and in training.

But the sun is shining, and all has returned to normal.  Closing the track to determine the cause of the deaths is unnecessary and harmful.  Harmful because over a thousand people depend on Santa Anita for their livelihood, from ticket takers, to concession workers.

Unnecessary my dear Watson, because the cause of the deaths is obvious.  The only variable that changed from an historically safe racing surface was the historic rainfall.  To wring out the water the track is packed down, which is called sealing the track.  Neither a sloppy wet track, nor an overly hard sealed track are ideal.  Of the two the sealed may be worse.  More investigation should be made with regard to sealed tracks, but that is not a reason to halt racing during the dry season.

A smaller part of the problem is the shortage of horses.  Horse owners are squeezed.  Costs have risen with normal inflation.  The increased cost of basics, such as hay and oats, are passed through to owners.  But purses have stayed the same or declined.  Attendance and betting are down.  So there are fewer owners, and those owners, often have fewer horses than in better times.

Bigger fields increase the amount of betting.  So notwithstanding the shortage of horses, track ownership tries to get races with 8 to 12 horses.  Trainers are pressured to run their horses more often.  
In response to the deaths, the track is not pushing as hard.

Increased attendance would solve this later problem.  With the San Gabriel Mountains in the background, Santa Anita is one of the most beautiful ovals in the world.  Come out and spend a day at the track.

Biden Bashing

The elite bi-coastal 10 day Biden bashing cruise had empty cabins.  As I expected, Biden's poll numbers are not only steady, but up, notwithstanding, ten days of liberal media, and the female young turks of the party, saying, "Biden's conduct may not be disqualifying, but..."

Biden's hugging was not only not sexual, but not gender based.  He hugs young, and old, men and women.  This was acknowledged, but then ignored by his critics.  The issue is not do women have a right to feel comfortable, but do we all have a guaranteed right to personal comfort?  Except for a few millennials ensconced in a safe space, we all know the answer is a resounding, no.

When a conversation at the next table in a restaurant reaches hockey announcer decibels, I am uncomfortable.  I have options.  I can move,  I can say something, or I can suck it up.  What I cannot do is take a video, and then go to their place of employment and try to get them fired.  Can we not take responsibility for our own personal comfort, and make our own way?

For the elite, the final straw was Biden having the audacity to joke about the issue, when he was grabbed by a union leader.  Without humor as a social lubricant, society grinds to a halt.  As the fringe of the Me Too Movement scowled, America smiled.

If a lesson is to be drawn from Biden, look not to his public displays of affection, but to his private affection.  His marriage is the exemplar of mutual respect and accomplishment.

Lucy Flores, the Bad Neighbor

If your dog is barking at night, a good neighbor will come over to complain before calling the police. Not Lucy Flores, she would have the riot squad breaking down your door, and a sniper taking out your dog.

In 2014 Ms. Flores was running for Lieutenant Governor of Nevada.  At her request, Joe Biden went to Nevada to endorse her candidacy.  As she was about to go on stage she alleges, that he grabbed her shoulders, and kissed the top or back of her head.  She admits it was not sexual, but says intentions don't matter.  It made her uncomfortable.

As a strong empowered woman running for constitution office, she could have told Biden to stop.  If not, as a fellow member of the party, she could have written or called Biden to express her feelings.  She could have been the good neighbor.  But instead she has waited nearly 5 years, until he was about to announce his candidacy.  Nor did she have the courtesy to complain privately, but instead sought the public spotlight in an attempt to bring the wrath of the "Me Too" movement down upon Joe.

For the Me Too Movement to maintain its moral authority it must separated the serious from the spurious.