Dateline Bayamo, Cuba

The only sure law is the law of unintended  consequences. Even Cubanos with no knowledge of candidates care about the embargo. They like Obama's first step, but want the election to cause the end of the embargo. What was intended to force a change in government has given the Castros an excuse for any economic failures.

Dateline Cienfuegos Cuba

Pardon the typos. U know what they say about men with large hands--they hate small keyboards.

At all income levels Trump is disliked.  The street hustler says all of Latin America hates him, the cafe owner calls him crazy and for the waiter he is close minded. They like Obama. They like Hillary.  The Casa owner because she is smart, the waiter because she is like Obama. Here it is Bernie who.

Those few who know of Cruz and Rubio ask why they hate their own people.

Leaving on a Jet Plane

What do Mexicans think about Trump's wall?  What do Cuban's think about the Cuban American running for office, and the American election in general.  Find out soon.  Next posts will be from Mexico and Cuba.  Because of bad wifi in Cuba, fuller expositions when I return.

SuperDelegates

Bernie is the guy who never picks up the check.  After 25 years in the Senate as an independent, he joined the Democratic Party, solely for what the party could do for him.  At a minimum he sought a national platform for his ideas, at the high end, a process and organization that could make him president.

SuperDelegates are the heart and soul of the party.  They are office holders and key operatives that have devoted the better part of their adult lives to the party.  As a reward they are assured a seat, and a vote, at the convention.  They make up 15 percent of the total.

Bernie has SuperDelegate envy.  He swivels between castigating them for not being democratic, and strategizing to use them to win the nomination, even if Hillary has the majority of pledged delegates. Barring an event that makes Clinton unelectable, she has earned the support of SuperDelegates.  She is not a user.  She has picked up her fair share of the checks.  Directly or indirectly she has campaigned and raised money for most of the SuperDelegates.  They will repay her loyalty, and ignore the iconoclastic independent.

Why Not Bernie?

As a back bencher from a state with only the population of a midsize California city, Sanders has succeeded beyond anyone's expectations.  Voters so lusty for authenticity that they have embraced a blustery billionaire, have similarly suckled the socialist Senator.

Bernie polls better in general election match ups, so why the fear about his electability?  Hillary has survived in the pros notwithstanding a pounding from talk show behemoths, Fox News, and the bulk of the GOP.  Bernie coming from a state with a population of about 600,000, would be jumping from high school Friday night light, to Monday Night Football.  Before a friendly liberal Democratic electorate, Hillary and Bernie have been playing touch.  Many of us doubt he is ready to be sacked by SuperPacs.

Speaking of SuperPacs, Bernie's purity will leave him penniless.  Amazingly Sanders has raised over forty million dollars, in each of the last two months.  Unfortunately, he will need to step that up ten fold to be competitive in the fall.  The general election will require over a billion dollars in funding.

Bernie might also be a bad president with good intentions.  Clinton's slogan of being a progressive that can get things done, could not be clunkier.  But it is also true.  In a ranking of Senators most likely to reach across the aisle, Sanders and Cruz were near the bottom at 98 and 99 respectively.  

The Gift

The ads run by the stop Trump coalition have been a resistible force pushing futilely against his immovable base.  But moderates, the vast majority of women, and independents are not so deeply moored.  Democrats in general, and Hillary in particular, can only thank them for the gift.

More importantly, every time Trump's voice rings out, a fall ad gets its wings.  Our guilty secret is that we want to run against the devil we have come to know.

July Jubilee

With a tip of the hat to Dave Alvin and the Blasters, in July, Hillary's jubilee train will be rolling over Trump in the rust belt.  Her campaign and SuperPacs have already slotted 70 million in early ads in battleground states.

Size matters.  The ad buy is double the amount that the Trump campaign has raised and borrowed for the entire cycle.  Trump will be dialing for dollars after his nomination, but will be defenseless in July.   With no guard rails in politics, there will be blood on the tracks.

Whether it is fatal or a glancing blow rides with the strength of the message.  Living in a consumer society we have developed sales resistance.  Otherwise we would have filled 6 car garages, homes stuffed with detergent and cereal, and eat eight meals a day at McDonalds.  Political ads only work when they focus, and amplify, more trusted free media.

Fortunately for Clinton, Trump has provided ample fuel.  The base case is that Trump lacks the temperament, consistency and experience to lead the free world.  Targeted ads will feature Trump's condescending and demeaning remarks about women, hispanics,  and muslims.  Blacks will not only listen to Trump's reluctance to denounce David Duke, but his disrespect, starting with the birther movement, towards the first Black president.  Disrespect is a big thing in the community.

With a big lead in the polls, Hillary will be able to dictate debate terms.  The author of, "The Art of the Deal," will be reduced to finger painting, with his oh, so short fingers.