Why Biden is Pulling Ahead

 For the first time this election cycle, polls show Biden pedaling ahead of Trump.  The reasons are two fold.  First is the State of the Union address.  The speech reassured Democrats and raised money, but did not immediately inflate Biden's poll numbers.  

The collateral impact of the address was to change the conversation.  Republicans stepped on their own message.  The GOP, with remarkable success, has pounded on Biden's age.  But in response to the speech,  Republicans cited Biden as being angry, talking too fast, shouting, and even Trump claiming Biden ingested cocaine.   Hardly, the description of a doddering old man.  The media has followed suit.  References to Biden's age have declined, and late night comedians have moved on.

The second reason is advertising.  Political advertising is often mere background noise.  Two chords transform it into a beat the public will dance to.  First, if it is unopposed.  Biden is buying digital and other media in key markets, while the less funded Trump campaign is not.  More importantly, the Biden campaign's ads funnel and amplify free media.

Abortion is in the news.  The Alabama decision on IVF and the more recent barbaric abortion decision in Arizona have the public focused.  The Biden campaign has nimbly responded with impactful abortion ads. 

The election is a long way off, but finally the Biden campaign has pushed the on button.

Ping

 I have a new business. Shooting small rubber bands at my computer screen. During the first quarter, I lost 2 dollars (the cost of the rubber bands). I expect to reach the break even point in the second quarter, since the rubber bands are reusable. Trump's media company lost 58 million over the last 4 quarters and is valued at 8 billion. Based on that valuation, I conservatively estimate the value of "Ping" at 10 billion.

Pole Dancing

 Time for the Biden campaign to bust a move.  Polish Americans make up nearly 8 percent of the population in Michigan and Wisconsin, two key swing states.  The number is a little over 5 per cent in Pennsylvania.  Up the ante with transplants from other eastern European NATO countries, and you have a sizable voting block.

Polish Americans, and their eastern European counterparts, are swing voters with nearly equal registration between Democrats, Republicans and independents.  Time to swing them in one direction.

All too often Trump's most outrageous comments play to his base, infuriate liberals, but barely move the needle with those in the middle.  Trump's invitation for Putin to invade NATO countries, and his lack of support for Ukraine, should be different.

Biden must seize the moment, advertising in the Polish Monthly, and every other demographically desirable media source.  Go east, not so young man, go east.

Double Jeopardy

 The President would be an awful contestant on Jeopardy. Instant recall and exact phrasing are not his strengths.  But presidents do not play foreign or domestic policy for 200.  They play it for real.

That requires deliberation, not flash card memory.  A president takes advice from a team of experts,  cabinet level on down, and tempers it with his wisdom and experience into steely policy.  

Biden has choosen advisers based on ability and experience, Trump favors loyalty.  Biden has background as a Senator and a Vice President before winning the Presidency.  Trump was a game show host, and ran a fraudulent family real estate business with 500 million in seed money from his father.

We somehow survived Trump's chaotic first term.  Do the American people really want to place the country in double jeopardy?

Mirror, Mirror

 It is often said that every Senator looks in the mirror and sees a president.  So too prosecutors see the reflection of a judge, even the judicial robes of a Supreme Court justice.  Certainly Special Counsel, Robert Hur has the credentials to make history as the first Asian American to so ascend.

He clerked for late U.S. Supreme Court Chief Justice William Rehnquist.  Hur is a graduate of Stanford Law School, where he was editor of the law review, and was an undergraduate at Harvard College. Hur served as top aide to then-Deputy Attorney General Rod Rosenstein before his appointment as the U.S.attorney in Maryland by, then president, Trump. He is currently a partner with a prestigious, and politically connected, law firm.

As Special Counsel investigating the retention of documents by President Biden, Hur had a peek at an obstacle to his blind ambition.  The case against the President is weak and unwinnable.  But dismissing the case would anger the MAGA base of the Republican Party.  As a Republican, Hur's judicial goal rests in the hands of a future Republican president.

The ugly solution was to vindicate Biden, but issue a politically damaging report, replete with gratuitous insults and attacks.  Splitting the baby may be politically wise, but it demonstrates that Hur lacks the integrity and temperament to serve on the highest court.

Willy Go Round in Circles

For months Republican Senators have refused to provide aid to Ukraine, Israel and Taiwan, without concessions on border security. Democrats caved, and gave them what they wanted. Republicans voted it down. The Senate has now approved the aid package without the southern border provisions.

The only saving grace for the Republican circular firing squad is that they cannot shoot straight.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W1TmIhddn0c

Lucy Pulled the Football Again

For months Republicans refused to authorize further aid to Ukraine without restrictions placed on immigration at our southern border.  The two issues are completely unrelated but, Ukraine is so important that the administration capitulated.  After months of legislative time, a bipartisan group of Senators crafted strict border controls.  The administration signaled a willingness to sign such a bill over the objections of the progressive wing of the Democratic party.

Aid to Ukraine is one of the best deals in diplomatic history.  Without risking a single American life, Russian aggression is stymied.  A possible confrontation between NATO and Russia, with nuclear implications, is averted.  Equally important, China learns that we stand behind our allies, discouraging the conquest of Taiwan.  

Republicans, at the direction of the former president, refused to declare victory.  Confronted with a bill that met their demands, they said, "Just kidding."  Lucy may be laughing, but the American people have fallen on their backs.